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中國宣布力爭2030年(nian)前實現碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)、2060年(nian)前實現碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中和“雙碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)愿景”，對(dui)能(neng)源(yuan)行(xing)業特別是電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業產生重大(da)影響。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增速，是衡量(liang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排放量(liang)變化的關鍵(jian)指(zhi)標(biao)。這(zhe)個指(zhi)標(biao)應該(gai)納入電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業中長(chang)期規劃，分解到年(nian)度，落(luo)實到地區，實施有效控制(zhi)，加快推動綠色轉型。

實施火電/煤電發電量增速控制，是實現對煤電項目和煤炭消費控制承諾的必然要求

為(wei)達到(dao)嚴控煤(mei)炭(tan)消費(fei)和(he)(he)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)的目(mu)標，必(bi)須(xu)實施對火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速控制。2021年4月22日，在“領導人(ren)氣候峰(feng)(feng)會”上，我國支持有(you)條件的重點行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)率先達峰(feng)(feng)，并明確提出“中(zhong)國將嚴控煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)，‘十(shi)四五’時(shi)(shi)期嚴控煤(mei)炭(tan)消費(fei)增(zeng)長、‘十(shi)五五’時(shi)(shi)期逐(zhu)步減少(shao)”。這(zhe)意味著，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)很有(you)可(ke)能(neng)有(you)條件率先碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)，在碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)前后一(yi)段(duan)時(shi)(shi)間煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機仍有(you)增(zeng)長空(kong)間，但碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)一(yi)定是以火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速穩定至零值(zhi)為(wei)主要標志。中(zhong)國政府宣布的“十(shi)五五”時(shi)(shi)期煤(mei)炭(tan)消費(fei)逐(zhu)步減少(shao)的承諾，將會加速電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)、碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)(he)進程，因此，對火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速目(mu)標的控制更(geng)具有(you)必(bi)然性。

同時(shi)(shi)，實(shi)施火電(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)發電(dian)量(liang)增速(su)控(kong)制，是電(dian)力行業落實(shi)我(wo)國綠(lv)色(se)轉型戰略思想(xiang)(xiang)的(de)(de)具體體現(xian)。我(wo)國提出(chu)的(de)(de)未來十年煤(mei)炭消費先(xian)達(da)峰后遞減承(cheng)諾，是實(shi)現(xian)“雙碳愿景”對煤(mei)炭行業的(de)(de)進一步具體要(yao)求(qiu)，兩(liang)者都體現(xian)出(chu)了分(fen)階段(duan)實(shi)施的(de)(de)戰略構(gou)想(xiang)(xiang)，抓住了綠(lv)色(se)轉型的(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)矛(mao)盾，為工(gong)業結構(gou)調整和(he)平穩過(guo)渡爭(zheng)取時(shi)(shi)間空間。同時(shi)(shi)，我(wo)國對煤(mei)炭消費大戶煤(mei)電(dian)產(chan)業給予高度關注，提出(chu)了“嚴控(kong)煤(mei)電(dian)項目”的(de)(de)明確具體的(de)(de)要(yao)求(qiu)。為落實(shi)這一要(yao)求(qiu)，首先(xian)必須對煤(mei)電(dian)發電(dian)量(liang)增速(su)實(shi)施有效控(kong)制，并根(gen)據我(wo)國國情，充分(fen)體現(xian)分(fen)階段(duan)控(kong)制戰略思維。

“十三五”電力行業運行情況，進一步凸顯了實施火電/煤電發電量增速控制的必要性和緊迫性

火電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)，是(shi)決定發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)非化(hua)石(shi)/可再生能(neng)源(yuan)主(zhu)體地位(wei)的主(zhu)要(yao)因素。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)過(guo)快增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)，明顯(xian)加強(qiang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)主(zhu)體地位(wei)。根(gen)據中電(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)公開(kai)數據分析，“十(shi)三五(wu)”期間(jian)各年(nian)度，在某(mou)個臨界(jie)值(zhi)分割的不同區間(jian)，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)非化(hua)石(shi)/可再生能(neng)源(yuan)占比與火電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)存在反向關系。

在2017年(nian)和2018年(nian)兩年(nian)，當(dang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)別(bie)為7.1%和8.4%時，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)別(bie)為5.7%/5.9%和7.2%/7.3%，而非化石/可再生能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)占比分(fen)別(bie)為43.2%/35%和40%/31.5%，沒(mei)有達(da)到(dao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)主體地位。在2016年(nian)、2019年(nian)和2020年(nian)三年(nian)，當(dang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)別(bie)為4.9%、4.8%和4%時，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)別(bie)為2.0%/1.4%、2.1%/1.6%和2.2%/1.8%，而非化石/可再生能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)占比分(fen)別(bie)為69.9%/55.1%、69.1%/52.7%和62.8%/56.9%，達(da)到(dao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)主體地位。

火電、煤電發電量(liang)增速控制(zhi)，首(shou)先直(zhi)接影響發電量(liang)增量(liang)非化(hua)石能源(yuan)對(dui)化(hua)石能源(yuan)的(de)替(ti)代進程，同時影響碳(tan)達峰、碳(tan)中和的(de)進程。對(dui)這一(yi)關鍵指標的(de)有(you)效控制(zhi)，有(you)利(li)于(yu)穩定預期、提(ti)振信心、樹(shu)立良好的(de)國際形象(xiang)。

構建科學的火電/煤電增速目標控制制度，加快推進電力行業綠色轉型進程

盡管電(dian)力行業(ye)實現“雙碳(tan)(tan)目(mu)標”的時間(jian)節點與我國(guo)實現“雙碳(tan)(tan)愿(yuan)景”時間(jian)節點會不一致，但(dan)是電(dian)力行業(ye)碳(tan)(tan)達峰的主要標志，應(ying)(ying)該是火電(dian)/煤電(dian)增速穩定至零值。而在電(dian)力行業(ye)碳(tan)(tan)中和(he)階段，火電(dian)/煤電(dian)增速應(ying)(ying)該逐漸遞減穩定至目(mu)標值（包括絕對(dui)值和(he)結構相對(dui)值）。抓住火電(dian)/煤電(dian)增速的控(kong)制，就(jiu)等于抓住了(le)控(kong)制電(dian)力行業(ye)碳(tan)(tan)排放的“牛鼻子(zi)”。

構(gou)(gou)建科學(xue)有效的(de)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)控制制度，有利于(yu)形成強(qiang)有力(li)(li)(li)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)行(xing)業綠(lv)色(se)轉型倒(dao)(dao)逼(bi)機制。“十三五”期間發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)數據表明(ming)，經濟過快(kuai)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)或者(zhe)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)過快(kuai)增長，是導致(zhi)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)過快(kuai)增長的(de)主(zhu)要因素，未來(lai)這種現象還可能出現。這種現象的(de)根本原(yuan)因在(zai)于(yu)綠(lv)色(se)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)不(bu)足，但(dan)直接原(yuan)因很容易歸(gui)結于(yu)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)（碳排放）控制乏力(li)(li)(li)方面。實施對火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)的(de)控制，主(zhu)動騰出增量(liang)和(he)存量(liang)空間，有利于(yu)加(jia)快(kuai)構(gou)(gou)建新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統，倒(dao)(dao)逼(bi)形成綠(lv)色(se)能源供(gong)應安全體系（包括政策(ce)和(he)市場），促進非化石(shi)能源/可再生能源發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。加(jia)快(kuai)推進發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增速(su)與火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)脫鉤，防止把火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應安全與綠(lv)色(se)轉型發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)對立起來(lai)，構(gou)(gou)建火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增速(su)遞減下的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)安全保障體系。

將火(huo)電(dian)/煤電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速，納入電(dian)力規劃和(he)(he)經(jing)濟責任制，作為約束性(xing)和(he)(he)績(ji)效(xiao)指標實(shi)施(shi)控(kong)制。以(yi)規劃期火(huo)電(dian)/煤電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速線(xian)性(xing)遞減控(kong)制為主(zhu)，以(yi)年(nian)度(du)區(qu)間限制為輔。國家分年(nian)度(du)公布年(nian)度(du)值和(he)(he)累計(ji)值，納入經(jing)濟責任審(shen)計(ji)，并對火(huo)電(dian)/煤電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速控(kong)制政策和(he)(he)市場、綠(lv)色能源供應安全體系以(yi)及低碳清(qing)潔能源結(jie)構調整等有(you)效(xiao)性(xing)評價。