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本文為中國電力企業聯合會專職副理事長王志軒在中國能源電力“十三五”成就與“十四五”展望論壇上的主旨演講。

習近平主席在9月(yue)22日聯(lian)合國(guo)大(da)會上宣布：“中(zhong)國(guo)二(er)氧化碳(tan)排(pai)放力爭于2030年(nian)(nian)前達(da)(da)到峰(feng)(feng)值(zhi)，爭取在2060年(nian)(nian)前實現碳(tan)中(zhong)和(he)(he)”（以下(xia)簡(jian)(jian)稱(cheng)(cheng)新NDC）；10月(yue)29日中(zhong)共(gong)中(zhong)央(yang)十九屆五(wu)中(zhong)全會通過(guo)的(de)(de)《中(zhong)共(gong)中(zhong)央(yang)關于制訂國(guo)民經濟(ji)和(he)(he)社會發(fa)展第十四個五(wu)年(nian)(nian)規(gui)劃和(he)(he)二(er)O三五(wu)年(nian)(nian)遠景目標的(de)(de)建議》（以下(xia)簡(jian)(jian)稱(cheng)(cheng)《建議》）第“3”條提(ti)出“展望二(er)O三五(wu)年(nian)(nian)……碳(tan)排(pai)放達(da)(da)峰(feng)(feng)后穩中(zhong)有降”，第“5”條提(ti)出“堅持系統觀(guan)念……辦好(hao)發(fa)展安(an)全兩件大(da)事(shi)，堅持全國(guo)一(yi)(yi)盤(pan)棋(qi)……實現發(fa)展質量(liang)、結構、規(gui)模、速度、效益、安(an)全相(xiang)統一(yi)(yi)”，第“35”條提(ti)出“降低碳(tan)排(pai)放強度，支(zhi)持有條件的(de)(de)地方率先達(da)(da)到碳(tan)排(pai)放峰(feng)(feng)值(zhi)，制定二(er)O三O年(nian)(nian)前碳(tan)排(pai)放達(da)(da)峰(feng)(feng)行動(dong)方案”。以上內容及(ji)黨和(he)(he)國(guo)家一(yi)(yi)系列(lie)一(yi)(yi)脈(mo)相(xiang)承的(de)(de)有關低碳(tan)發(fa)展的(de)(de)理念、目標、方針、政策，清晰(xi)表(biao)達(da)(da)了中(zhong)國(guo)堅定走低碳(tan)發(fa)展道路為(wei)全球應對氣候變化貢(gong)獻力量(liang)的(de)(de)決心(xin)和(he)(he)初(chu)心(xin)。

習近平主席宣布(bu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)NDC的(de)70多天以來(lai)，這一(yi)承(cheng)(cheng)諾(nuo)已經(jing)在(zai)國(guo)際(ji)社會產生(sheng)了巨大反響。中國(guo)的(de)承(cheng)(cheng)諾(nuo)將重新(xin)(xin)(xin)改寫近年來(lai)一(yi)些國(guo)家、地(di)區(qu)及眾多機構(gou)在(zai)政(zheng)治、經(jing)濟、社會、能源(yuan)、環境等問題上的(de)研究結論。2020年，中國(guo)NDC新(xin)(xin)(xin)承(cheng)(cheng)諾(nuo)將與中國(guo)抗擊新(xin)(xin)(xin)冠肺炎的(de)壯舉一(yi)樣，為(wei)人(ren)類發展史添(tian)上濃墨重彩的(de)一(yi)筆。新(xin)(xin)(xin)NDC是影(ying)響世界、影(ying)響全(quan)(quan)局(ju)、影(ying)響未來(lai)的(de)大事。只有立足全(quan)(quan)局(ju)、堅(jian)持(chi)系統(tong)思維才(cai)能準確理解和把握新(xin)(xin)(xin)NDC和《建(jian)議》的(de)基本精神，把NDC承(cheng)(cheng)諾(nuo)緊(jin)密地(di)與“開啟全(quan)(quan)面建(jian)設社會主義現代化國(guo)家新(xin)(xin)(xin)征”要求(qiu)相融合，才(cai)能看清一(yi)個(ge)行(xing)業或地(di)區(qu)在(zai)個(ge)整體系統(tong)中的(de)定位和作用，才(cai)能在(zai)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)一(yi)盤棋布(bu)局(ju)下知道(dao)一(yi)個(ge)行(xing)業或者地(di)區(qu)做什么(me)、怎么(me)做。下面，結合能源(yuan)電力低碳轉型(xing)的(de)特點我講幾(ji)點個(ge)人(ren)認識。

如何看待對碳達峰節點和碳中和的宏觀措施

從實現(xian)《巴黎(li)協定》的(de)(de)長期(qi)目(mu)標看，中國二氧化碳越(yue)(yue)早達峰、峰值(zhi)(zhi)越(yue)(yue)低、峰值(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)平臺期(qi)越(yue)(yue)短(duan)、峰值(zhi)(zhi)后下降速度(du)越(yue)(yue)快、碳中和(he)(he)(he)目(mu)標越(yue)(yue)早實現(xian)，則(ze)越(yue)(yue)有利(li)于2攝氏度(du)甚至1.5攝氏度(du)溫(wen)升幅度(du)控制目(mu)標。但中國正處于全面建設社會主義(yi)現(xian)代化國家(jia)新征途(tu)中，發展是解決我國一切問題的(de)(de)基(ji)礎和(he)(he)(he)關鍵，碳達峰與碳中和(he)(he)(he)具體路徑方案設計，要(yao)與新發展理念的(de)(de)系統要(yao)求相協調。

理論和實(shi)踐(jian)都(dou)證(zheng)明，低(di)碳發展(zhan)主要措施(shi)是提(ti)高單位產品(pin)能(neng)效(xiao)、調整產業結構也(ye)即減(jian)少(shao)高能(neng)耗產品(pin)的產量(liang)、以及能(neng)源結構向低(di)碳轉型。

提高產(chan)品(pin)(pin)能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)并改變生活方式(shi)才能(neng)(neng)抑(yi)(yi)制碳(tan)排放(fang)總(zong)體水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)。經過幾十年改革開放(fang)發(fa)展，中國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源、電力、重點(dian)工業領(ling)域的(de)物理能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)顯(xian)著提升，如發(fa)電、鋼鐵、建(jian)材、有色金屬等(deng)部(bu)門(men)主要(yao)(yao)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)全生命周期可比(bi)性的(de)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)總(zong)體居(ju)于(yu)(yu)(yu)世界(jie)先(xian)進水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)，部(bu)分達(da)到領(ling)先(xian)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)。雖然中國(guo)單位(wei)GDP能(neng)(neng)源消耗水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)從數字上(shang)看(kan)與發(fa)達(da)國(guo)家(jia)相比(bi)還有約(yue)一(yi)倍的(de)差(cha)距(ju)，但(dan)這主要(yao)(yao)反映出的(de)是(shi)(shi)經濟結(jie)(jie)構(gou)、產(chan)業結(jie)(jie)構(gou)及匯率計算上(shang)的(de)差(cha)別而不是(shi)(shi)物理能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)的(de)差(cha)別。如采用購(gou)買力評(ping)價法（PPP）則這種差(cha)距(ju)明顯(xian)縮小甚至(zhi)好于(yu)(yu)(yu)某些發(fa)達(da)國(guo)家(jia)。且由于(yu)(yu)(yu)中國(guo)正處于(yu)(yu)(yu)發(fa)展階段，人均能(neng)(neng)源消費尤其是(shi)(shi)生活用能(neng)(neng)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)仍(reng)然很低(di)，使得(de)能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)提高的(de)同時，能(neng)(neng)源需(xu)求量(liang)的(de)提高卻(que)是(shi)(shi)同步增長的(de)。中國(guo)要(yao)(yao)通過能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)提升抑(yi)(yi)降低(di)碳(tan)排放(fang)總(zong)量(liang)，關(guan)鍵是(shi)(shi)要(yao)(yao)優化(hua)經濟結(jie)(jie)構(gou)和合理提高人均生活用能(neng)(neng)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)(ping)。要(yao)(yao)在繼(ji)續堅(jian)持節能(neng)(neng)優先(xian)的(de)原(yuan)則下，要(yao)(yao)強(qiang)化(hua)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)調整對節能(neng)(neng)的(de)貢獻率，尤其是(shi)(shi)強(qiang)化(hua)通過結(jie)(jie)構(gou)調整節約(yue)或減少煤碳(tan)的(de)使用。

應從(cong)全(quan)局角度(du)考慮產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移對碳(tan)(tan)(tan)減(jian)排(pai)(pai)的(de)(de)作用。發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)達國(guo)(guo)家碳(tan)(tan)(tan)減(jian)排(pai)(pai)是在(zai)(zai)(zai)實(shi)現了(le)(le)工業(ye)(ye)化之(zhi)后、工業(ye)(ye)用能顯著(zhu)減(jian)少、人(ren)均生(sheng)活水(shui)平顯著(zhu)提高(gao)(gao)，以及(ji)與高(gao)(gao)能耗(hao)、低(di)(di)附加值產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移出去以及(ji)與能源(yuan)低(di)(di)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)有(you)(you)直(zhi)接(jie)關系。而(er)中國(guo)(guo)高(gao)(gao)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)特征(zheng)，既與中國(guo)(guo)高(gao)(gao)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)能源(yuan)資源(yuan)稟賦有(you)(you)關，在(zai)(zai)(zai)很大(da)(da)(da)(da)程度(du)與承接(jie)了(le)(le)大(da)(da)(da)(da)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)載能產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移有(you)(you)關，也(ye)(ye)就是說中國(guo)(guo)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)上升與發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)達國(guo)(guo)家碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)下(xia)(xia)降存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)耦合關系。雖然(ran)這(zhe)種產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移的(de)(de)結(jie)果從(cong)歷史的(de)(de)眼光看(kan)給中國(guo)(guo)和世(shi)界的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)都帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)巨大(da)(da)(da)(da)利好，但面向未來(lai)(lai)，中國(guo)(guo)也(ye)(ye)能繼續遵循這(zhe)一(yi)模式嗎(ma)？顯然(ran)，不論從(cong)人(ren)類命運(yun)共同(tong)體的(de)(de)角度(du)看(kan)，還(huan)是從(cong)中國(guo)(guo)自身(shen)所(suo)處的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)階段看(kan)，都不具(ju)備快(kuai)速產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移條件。從(cong)中國(guo)(guo)自身(shen)看(kan)，一(yi)個正處在(zai)(zai)(zai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)中的(de)(de)14億(yi)人(ren)口大(da)(da)(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)，還(huan)需要(yao)強(qiang)大(da)(da)(da)(da)而(er)高(gao)(gao)質量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)體系支(zhi)撐現代化目標實(shi)現。而(er)且從(cong)全(quan)球(qiu)來(lai)(lai)看(kan)，包括(kuo)新能源(yuan)技術及(ji)設(she)備在(zai)(zai)(zai)內的(de)(de)中國(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)品對全(quan)球(qiu)經濟振興、推(tui)進(jin)全(quan)球(qiu)低(di)(di)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)也(ye)(ye)有(you)(you)比較優勢。因此，從(cong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)規律來(lai)(lai)看(kan)，通過減(jian)少高(gao)(gao)載能產(chan)(chan)品產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)來(lai)(lai)加快(kuai)降碳(tan)(tan)(tan)的(de)(de)模式在(zai)(zai)(zai)中短期內難以達到顯著(zhu)效(xiao)果。要(yao)從(cong)“暢通國(guo)(guo)內大(da)(da)(da)(da)循環，促進(jin)國(guo)(guo)內國(guo)(guo)際雙循環”的(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)(da)思(si)路下(xia)(xia)，綜合考慮產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)低(di)(di)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)問(wen)題。

比(bi)(bi)較全球、OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)家和中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)用(yong)電(dian)量，可以進一步理解以上(shang)(shang)邏輯。2019年(nian)，全球、OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)家和中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)，人(ren)均(jun)(jun)用(yong)電(dian)量分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)3289、8480、5186千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)是(shi)全球平(ping)均(jun)(jun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)1.58倍、是(shi)OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)(de)0.61倍；但人(ren)均(jun)(jun)生(sheng)活用(yong)電(dian)量分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)880、2619、733千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)是(shi)全球平(ping)均(jun)(jun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)0.83倍，僅是(shi)OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)(de)29%。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)均(jun)(jun)生(sheng)活用(yong)電(dian)最高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)福(fu)建(jian)省1173千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，大于(yu)1000千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)以上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)有福(fu)建(jian)、北京、浙江、上(shang)(shang)海。2019年(nian)，OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)(de)工業(ye)、商業(ye)、居民用(yong)電(dian)占比(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)(wei)31.7%、31.4%、30.9%，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)工業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)占比(bi)(bi)67.2%。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)均(jun)(jun)用(yong)電(dian)量和工業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量比(bi)(bi)重都相(xiang)對較高(gao)，而生(sheng)活用(yong)電(dian)量顯著偏低，說明(ming)了中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)發(fa)展(zhan)是(shi)基(ji)于(yu)對世界貢獻的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)、中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)產(chan)業(ye)結構調整任務艱(jian)難，在(zai)發(fa)展(zhan)方(fang)式上(shang)(shang)要向大力提高(gao)人(ren)民生(sheng)活水平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)方(fang)向轉變。

能源(yuan)結構低碳(tan)(tan)化(hua)(hua)是中(zhong)國低碳(tan)(tan)轉型(xing)的根本性措施(shi)，也是迫切(qie)的措施(shi)。中(zhong)國已基本具(ju)備了持續大(da)幅度提高非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)石能源(yuan)尤其是可再生能源(yuan)在一次能源(yuan)中(zhong)的占(zhan)比的技術(shu)基礎和產業(ye)基礎。通過(guo)持續推動電氣(qi)化(hua)(hua)，大(da)幅度提高非(fei)(fei)化(hua)(hua)石能源(yuan)電能在終(zhong)端(duan)能源(yuan)消(xiao)費中(zhong)的比重，會跨越或縮短以石油替(ti)代燃(ran)煤、燃(ran)氣(qi)替(ti)代石油、可再生能源(yuan)替(ti)代燃(ran)氣(qi)的分段轉型(xing)的時間，完(wan)成(cheng)碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和的歷史使命(ming)。

基于以上初步認識，參考歐盟及(ji)(ji)一些國(guo)家和地區碳中和的戰略及(ji)(ji)措施，并考慮到可再生能源發(fa)電技(ji)術進步趨勢，以及(ji)(ji)對未來由(you)于技(ji)術發(fa)展對減碳成(cheng)本(ben)下降幅度的預(yu)期(qi)，中國(guo)在2030年(nian)前實現(xian)碳達(da)峰后，經過一段具有波動性(xing)峰值平臺期(qi)，到2035年(nian)達(da)到穩中有降，在2050年(nian)顯著下降，到2060年(nian)前實現(xian)碳中和。

充分認識電力行業在低碳轉型中的使命和作為

第(di)一，要充分(fen)認識到，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)要堅持全國一盤(pan)棋(qi)，發(fa)揮(hui)好(hao)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)在(zai)低碳(tan)發(fa)展(zhan)全局中的(de)(de)作用(yong)(yong)。不僅是(shi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，其他行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)都應在(zai)全國一盤(pan)棋(qi)中扮好(hao)各(ge)自(zi)角色。率(lv)先(xian)碳(tan)達(da)峰及(ji)碳(tan)中和對(dui)(dui)于(yu)微(wei)觀經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)活動主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)和地區(qu)而(er)言有實質意義，《建議》中提(ti)出“支持有條件(jian)的(de)(de)地方率(lv)先(xian)達(da)到碳(tan)排(pai)放峰值(zhi)”，其中的(de)(de)“條件(jian)”是(shi)指資源(yuan)(yuan)條件(jian)、技術條件(jian)、能(neng)效水平、經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)水平等綜合(he)分(fen)析而(er)來(lai)(lai)，而(er)不是(shi)以經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)達(da)程(cheng)度(du)來(lai)(lai)劃分(fen)。率(lv)先(xian)達(da)峰需要嚴格而(er)規范的(de)(de)核(he)算體(ti)(ti)系來(lai)(lai)保(bao)障(zhang)，避免一個(ge)地區(qu)實現了低碳(tan)是(shi)用(yong)(yong)另一個(ge)地區(qu)高碳(tan)為代(dai)價，且總體(ti)(ti)上(shang)增加了社(she)(she)(she)會成本(ben)；要引導(dao)鼓勵(li)能(neng)夠促進全社(she)(she)(she)會提(ti)前達(da)峰、降低峰值(zhi)、減少成本(ben)的(de)(de)地區(qu)間(jian)、行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)間(jian)的(de)(de)碳(tan)轉移——這也是(shi)碳(tan)市場的(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)原理。因此，對(dui)(dui)于(yu)一個(ge)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)來(lai)(lai)說，不是(shi)圍繞行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)本(ben)身(shen)而(er)是(shi)要圍繞全社(she)(she)(she)會整體(ti)(ti)減碳(tan)效益最(zui)佳原則來(lai)(lai)布局減碳(tan)的(de)(de)程(cheng)度(du)和進程(cheng)。從人類文(wen)明史來(lai)(lai)看，能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉型(xing)是(shi)推(tui)進人類文(wen)階段性演化(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)動力(li)(li)，對(dui)(dui)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)社(she)(she)(she)會的(de)(de)影(ying)響是(shi)全面的(de)(de)，對(dui)(dui)生(sheng)產方式(shi)和生(sheng)活方式(shi)改變是(shi)革命性的(de)(de)。以低碳(tan)化(hua)(hua)為目標的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)也將滲透(tou)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)生(sheng)產、存儲和應用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)各(ge)個(ge)環節，電(dian)(dian)能(neng)應用(yong)(yong)方式(shi)也發(fa)生(sheng)巨大變化(hua)(hua)，與經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)社(she)(she)(she)會各(ge)領域(yu)發(fa)生(sheng)深度(du)融合(he)。這些變化(hua)(hua)都將使“電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)”的(de)(de)概念(nian)發(fa)生(sheng)變化(hua)(hua)，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)率(lv)先(xian)達(da)峰的(de)(de)判(pan)斷非常困難。

從政(zheng)策、規劃、標(biao)準的(de)制定的(de)科學性(xing)和可(ke)操作性(xing)層(ceng)面看，針對(dui)生產對(dui)象和全(quan)國(guo)的(de)單位發電(dian)(dian)量碳排(pai)放(fang)量、針對(dui)地(di)方及全(quan)國(guo)的(de)電(dian)(dian)能占(zhan)終端能源消費比重、包括熱電(dian)(dian)聯產在內的(de)電(dian)(dian)煤占(zhan)煤炭消費比重、針對(dui)激勵(li)先進淘汰落后的(de)碳總量等(deng)指標(biao)等(deng)，比行業率先達峰(feng)的(de)指標(biao)更能從全(quan)局角度發揮電(dian)(dian)力(li)促進低(di)碳發展(zhan)的(de)作用(yong)。

第二，要(yao)優先(xian)解決(jue)好(hao)(hao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)如(ru)何適應(ying)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)接(jie)(jie)入(ru)(ru)后電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)的(de)問題(ti)。在(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)低(di)碳(tan)轉(zhuan)型(xing)中(zhong)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)承擔著(zhu)配置電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)的(de)中(zhong)樞、基礎(chu)地位，即(ji)便是新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)不直(zhi)(zhi)接(jie)(jie)接(jie)(jie)入(ru)(ru)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)，由(you)于(yu)影(ying)響了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)負荷特性(xing)(xing)，對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)也有(you)(you)直(zhi)(zhi)接(jie)(jie)影(ying)響。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)主要(yao)任務(wu)是安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)及接(jie)(jie)納(na)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)新(xin)(xin)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)的(de)首(shou)要(yao)任務(wu)與(yu)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)接(jie)(jie)納(na)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)是一(yi)對(dui)(dui)對(dui)(dui)立統一(yi)的(de)矛(mao)盾，沒有(you)(you)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)接(jie)(jie)納(na)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)，安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)實現不了低(di)碳(tan)轉(zhuan)型(xing)目標，而安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)接(jie)(jie)納(na)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)也沒有(you)(you)意義(yi)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)與(yu)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)更多(duo)地接(jie)(jie)入(ru)(ru)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)呈非線性(xing)(xing)增長關(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)。這(zhe)是因為，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)占(zhan)終端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)越(yue)高，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)對(dui)(dui)經濟社會的(de)安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)性(xing)(xing)就越(yue)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)；而隨機性(xing)(xing)、波動(dong)性(xing)(xing)的(de)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)接(jie)(jie)入(ru)(ru)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)越(yue)多(duo)，對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)的(de)影(ying)響就越(yue)大(da)(da)；同時(shi)(shi)，由(you)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統中(zhong)具有(you)(you)轉(zhuan)動(dong)慣量的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)比(bi)例減(jian)少，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)(xing)下(xia)降(jiang)。要(yao)解決(jue)好(hao)(hao)這(zhe)一(yi)矛(mao)盾，政府、社會及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統各(ge)主體都應(ying)對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)功能(neng)(neng)、作(zuo)用的(de)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)(hua)有(you)(you)新(xin)(xin)的(de)認識。在(zai)(zai)宏觀層面(mian)上，要(yao)統籌好(hao)(hao)智能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)、能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)互聯網(wang)(wang)(wang)、工業(ye)物聯網(wang)(wang)(wang)、通(tong)訊網(wang)(wang)(wang)、交通(tong)網(wang)(wang)(wang)等(deng)多(duo)網(wang)(wang)(wang)融合發(fa)展；在(zai)(zai)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)層面(mian)上，要(yao)統籌好(hao)(hao)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)（尤(you)其是配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)）、儲能(neng)(neng)協(xie)調(diao)(diao)發(fa)展，做好(hao)(hao)規(gui)劃并及時(shi)(shi)評估(gu)修訂；在(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)層面(mian)上，要(yao)加強電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)的(de)理論(lun)、技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)和(he)商業(ye)模(mo)式創新(xin)(xin)、與(yu)時(shi)(shi)俱進修訂技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)標準、分階段提出政策(ce)(ce)措施(shi)和(he)改(gai)革措施(shi)。在(zai)(zai)低(di)碳(tan)轉(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)大(da)(da)潮之(zhi)中(zhong)，技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)發(fa)展日新(xin)(xin)月異，經濟社會矛(mao)盾隨時(shi)(shi)會有(you)(you)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)(hua)，雖然低(di)碳(tan)轉(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)方(fang)向是明確的(de)，但政策(ce)(ce)措施(shi)是需要(yao)依據變(bian)(bian)化(hua)(hua)的(de)情況及時(shi)(shi)調(diao)(diao)整，防止各(ge)種技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)性(xing)(xing)、政策(ce)(ce)性(xing)(xing)、產業(ye)性(xing)(xing)“鎖定(ding)(ding)”。

第三(san)，解(jie)決(jue)(jue)好煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問題。如果說用(yong)(yong)(yong)兩個字來概括(kuo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)低(di)碳(tan)發展的(de)(de)道路、措施及效果的(de)(de)話，“減煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)”二字不(bu)(bu)(bu)出其右，同理(li)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)低(di)碳(tan)發展核(he)心是(shi)(shi)“減煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”三(san)字。但(dan)是(shi)(shi)，不(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)青(qing)紅皂白、不(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)先后、不(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)、不(bu)(bu)(bu)計代價(jia)，一減了(le)之、越(yue)(yue)快(kuai)越(yue)(yue)好是(shi)(shi)行(xing)不(bu)(bu)(bu)通(tong)的(de)(de)！中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經過了(le)幾(ji)十年改(gai)革開放發展，終(zhong)于站到了(le)全(quan)(quan)(quan)球電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統總體先進、部分(fen)(fen)(fen)領先的(de)(de)行(xing)列，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)維(wei)護電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩定、提高(gao)(gao)能源(yuan)效率、加強環境污(wu)染控制、強化(hua)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)解(jie)決(jue)(jue)全(quan)(quan)(quan)局(ju)(ju)(ju)性(xing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)煙型污(wu)染方(fang)面做出了(le)巨大貢獻。2019年，在(zai)運(yun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)10.4億(yi)千瓦、平均運(yun)行(xing)12年機(ji)(ji)組(zu)年齡、平均年運(yun)行(xing)小時4429、燃用(yong)(yong)(yong)23億(yi)噸原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)（約(yue)占全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)消費量(liang)的(de)(de)60%）、提供(gong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)約(yue)62%電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)、80%以上機(ji)(ji)組(zu)容量(liang)大于300MW、43.7%的(de)(de)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)機(ji)(ji)組(zu)……這就是(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)現實寫照。而我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)只有不(bu)(bu)(bu)到5%的(de)(de)靈活(huo)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)（燃機(ji)(ji)）、燃氣對(dui)(dui)外依存(cun)度(du)約(yue)45%且(qie)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)居高(gao)(gao)不(bu)(bu)(bu)下，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)礦格(ge)(ge)局(ju)(ju)(ju)、煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)洗選、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)格(ge)(ge)局(ju)(ju)(ju)、鐵路、港口、工業布局(ju)(ju)(ju)、能源(yuan)運(yun)輸、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)流向、核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站布局(ju)(ju)(ju)、水資源(yuan)配(pei)置、省域(yu)或地(di)(di)域(yu)經濟支(zhi)撐(cheng)等(deng)都與煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有直接關系(xi)。在(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)一些(xie)省，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)小時已經低(di)于2000小時，但(dan)對(dui)(dui)當地(di)(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統來說仍不(bu)(bu)(bu)能棄用(yong)(yong)(yong)。因(yin)此，我們要認(ren)真研究現有的(de)(de)年青(qing)的(de)(de)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)系(xi)統如何發揮好在(zai)能源(yuan)轉(zhuan)型中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)靈活(huo)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)供(gong)熱、生物(wu)(wu)質能聯(lian)合發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、在(zai)區(qu)域(yu)或者(zhe)產(chan)業循環中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)能量(liang)、物(wu)(wu)質、價(jia)值流的(de)(de)綜合作(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)上；要嚴(yan)格(ge)(ge)限制單純(chun)的(de)(de)以提供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)為(wei)目的(de)(de)純(chun)凝汽式煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)組(zu)；同時，為(wei)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)有序退出做好法規(gui)(gui)、政策、規(gui)(gui)劃、標準等(deng)方(fang)法的(de)(de)統籌研究和準備工作(zuo)(zuo)。

隨(sui)著電力(li)低碳轉型的(de)(de)(de)深(shen)入推(tui)進，煤電在統籌(chou)考(kao)慮中，逐步、有序退(tui)出是實現中國碳中和愿景的(de)(de)(de)必然(ran)，也是歷史必然(ran)，但在最終退(tui)出過程中，根據(ju)電力(li)系(xi)統安全穩定運(yun)行(xing)和關鍵熱(re)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)需要(yao)，煤電仍(reng)然(ran)會發揮其靈活性電源(yuan)、電力(li)安全備用電源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)作用。

第四，解(jie)決好儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)問(wen)題。儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)好壞決定了能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)力(li)低(di)碳轉(zhuan)型的(de)(de)(de)(de)廣(guang)度(du)、深度(du)、進(jin)度(du)甚至(zhi)成(cheng)敗(bai)。現有(you)低(di)碳目標、愿(yuan)景、計(ji)劃，都是(shi)(shi)建立在(zai)(zai)(zai)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)具有(you)突(tu)破性(xing)(xing)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)和經濟上能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠用(yong)得起的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎上的(de)(de)(de)(de)。儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)大(da)規模(mo)應用(yong)，使傳統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)輸配供用(yong)電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)單向(xiang)、線性(xing)(xing)配置成(cheng)為環(huan)狀多(duo)向(xiang)配置，促進(jin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、電(dian)力(li)、物質間雙向(xiang)轉(zhuan)換，使電(dian)氣化與經濟社會(hui)深度(du)融合(he)。儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)方興未艾，技術及商(shang)業(ye)模(mo)式層出不(bu)窮，為未來展(zhan)現了美好的(de)(de)(de)(de)前景。但是(shi)(shi)，儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)特點也決定了在(zai)(zai)(zai)應用(yong)對象、條件、安全、技術、商(shang)業(ye)模(mo)式等方面(mian)都存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)系統(tong)性(xing)(xing)和綜(zong)合(he)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題，而這正(zheng)體現出儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)不(bu)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)脫(tuo)離新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)進(jin)程、電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)需求、經濟社會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)需求而獨立發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。相信通過“十四五”的(de)(de)(de)(de)技術發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)和政策(ce)完善，儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)態勢會(hui)更加(jia)明朗，在(zai)(zai)(zai)促進(jin)低(di)碳轉(zhuan)型中發(fa)(fa)揮重要作用(yong)。