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1、電力系統簡單認識

眾所周知，電力系統是由發電廠、配變電設備、輸配電線路等組成的電能生產與消費系統。電力系統的投資、建設、運營基本由國民經濟電費支撐（除國家財政少量補貼外），包括所有發電企業的設備投資、建設工程、運營管理，電網企業的設備投資、建設工程、運營管理，售電公司的營業收入等發、輸、配、售所有環節的費用均源于國民經濟電費。各環節整體效率決定平均電費水平即電價。

2、能源轉型大背景

由(you)于全球氣候及其(qi)他(ta)環(huan)(huan)境問題，2016年(nian)多(duo)國簽署巴黎協定。2020年(nian)包括中國在內多(duo)個主(zhu)要經(jing)濟體陸續提出(chu)碳中和(he)目標。人類社(she)會快速發展同時也對全球氣候及環(huan)(huan)境帶來重大影(ying)響，對清潔(jie)能(neng)源的(de)需求(qiu)越發迫切。

同(tong)時，隨著半導體及電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)子技(ji)術的快(kuai)速發展及應用，新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)、可調節(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣設備、新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)等(deng)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)技(ji)術涌(yong)現并快(kuai)速發展，且(qie)產(chan)業化應用日趨成熟。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力技(ji)術由定額的、單向(xiang)的、不(bu)可規(gui)模儲(chu)存的、依賴化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的特點向(xiang)靈活的、雙向(xiang)互動(dong)的、可規(gui)模儲(chu)存的、清(qing)潔低碳的特點轉變。

3、當前電力系統情況

目前，國(guo)內發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)源結構主要由燃(ran)煤燃(ran)氣機組、水力發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)機組、核(he)電(dian)(dian)機組、風力發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)機組、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)機組組成。電(dian)(dian)能量(liang)供應、輔助(zhu)服(fu)務供應、容量(liang)供應均由發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)源支撐，均在發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)上網電(dian)(dian)費中分配結算。

根據中(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)聯發布(bu)數據，截(jie)至2019年底，全(quan)國全(quan)口徑發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量201006萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。其(qi)中(zhong)，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)35804萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)（含抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)），占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)17.81%；火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)118957萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)59.18%（煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)104063萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)51.77%；氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)9024萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)2.42%；其(qi)他火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)2.92%）；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)4874萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)2.42%；并(bing)網風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)20915萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)10.41%；并(bing)網太(tai)陽能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)20418萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)10.16%。

截止(zhi)2019年，全國全口徑(jing)發電(dian)量為73266億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)。其中,水電(dian)13021億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)（含抽水蓄能），占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)17.77%；火電(dian)50465億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)68.88%（煤電(dian)45538億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)62.15%；氣電(dian)2325億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)3.17%；其他火電(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)3.55%）核電(dian)3487億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)4.76%；并(bing)網風電(dian)4053億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)5.53%；并(bing)網太陽能發電(dian)2237億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)3.05%。

可以(yi)(yi)看到，目(mu)前電(dian)(dian)(dian)源結(jie)構主要(yao)以(yi)(yi)燃(ran)(ran)煤發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)為(wei)主，同時由于(yu)燃(ran)(ran)煤發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組有效容(rong)量(liang)系數(shu)較高，利用小時數(shu)相比風電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)更高，燃(ran)(ran)煤發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)更是發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的主力。

4、電力市場建設情況

2015年(nian)中央印發(fa)9號文，進(jin)一步(bu)推進(jin)電力(li)體制改革。2016年(nian)，廣(guang)東(dong)、重慶開(kai)始(shi)建(jian)設電力(li)市場(chang)試(shi)(shi)點(dian)(dian)，隨即組建(jian)了北京、廣(guang)州區域(yu)電力(li)交易(yi)中心及各省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)級電力(li)交易(yi)中心。市場(chang)化(hua)交易(yi)電量以及市場(chang)主(zhu)體數量大幅(fu)增長，不少(shao)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)份(fen)已經(jing)實現10kV以上工(gong)商業用戶全(quan)部進(jin)入市場(chang)。2017年(nian)部分(fen)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)份(fen)開(kai)始(shi)試(shi)(shi)點(dian)(dian)調頻輔助服(fu)務(wu)市場(chang)。2018年(nian)，全(quan)國有8個省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)份(fen)開(kai)始(shi)實施電力(li)現貨(huo)市場(chang)試(shi)(shi)點(dian)(dian)。交易(yi)機構的(de)獨立(li)規范運行也在更進(jin)一步(bu)推進(jin)。總體來看(kan)，電力(li)市場(chang)建(jian)設穩步(bu)前進(jin)。

然(ran)而，電力市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)改革進入深水區，也遇到了一些深層(ceng)次的困難和阻力。目(mu)(mu)前電力市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)交易(yi)仍然(ran)普遍存(cun)在發(fa)電企業借助(zhu)政(zheng)策倒置供需(xu)關(guan)系聯合控制市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)雙軌制費用不(bu)平衡，輔助(zhu)服務市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)準(zhun)入不(bu)夠開放，部分交易(yi)品(pin)種缺失等問題(ti)。多(duo)(duo)數市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)體參與市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)的感受是電力市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)建設目(mu)(mu)標不(bu)明朗，批發(fa)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)行(xing)政(zheng)干預程度較(jiao)大，市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)化程度較(jiao)低，總體感覺是維(wei)持原有格局(ju)前提下給予一些降價(jia)補貼，補貼多(duo)(duo)少怎么分配(pei)并不(bu)由真實市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)供需(xu)情況決定。

其實，這個情(qing)況(kuang)也(ye)是(shi)很好理解，由(you)于電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場建(jian)設不(bu)(bu)能(neng)一蹴(cu)而就，在市(shi)場尚未完全(quan)成熟(shu)的情(qing)況(kuang)下，大(da)的前(qian)提是(shi)必須(xu)保障電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統的穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)。由(you)于水電(dian)(dian)、新能(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)出力不(bu)(bu)可控而裝機(ji)規模日(ri)趨增長且優先消(xiao)納，用戶負荷(he)波動較(jiao)大(da)且常(chang)與該類電(dian)(dian)源出力規律不(bu)(bu)同步，主力市(shi)場化火電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)發電(dian)(dian)小時(shi)數日(ri)趨降低，然而目前(qian)情(qing)況(kuang)容(rong)量支撐客觀需要一定(ding)(ding)規模火電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)。這就導(dao)致單純的電(dian)(dian)能(neng)量市(shi)場，供應(ying)過(guo)剩情(qing)況(kuang)凸顯(xian)，可能(neng)過(guo)度競爭，導(dao)致行(xing)業(ye)大(da)面(mian)積虧損，給電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)運(yun)行(xing)帶(dai)來巨大(da)風險(xian)，不(bu)(bu)得不(bu)(bu)對市(shi)場化發電(dian)(dian)企業(ye)進行(xing)一定(ding)(ding)的保護。

這(zhe)時，電力市場(chang)改革像是走到了一個十字路口(kou)，是繼續深入推進(jin)市場(chang)化，由市場(chang)決定資源配置還是維持市場(chang)形式，行政計(ji)劃(hua)資源配置。

5、未來電力系統發展主要矛盾

個人認為在(zai)未(wei)來能源轉型背(bei)景下，以目前電力系統思(si)維發展會面臨以下幾個主要矛盾：

A、新能源發(fa)電量占比(bi)提(ti)升(sheng)與發(fa)電資產效率之(zhi)間的(de)矛盾

隨著新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)快速發展，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)利(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)逐步(bu)被擠(ji)壓(ya)，結合火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)參與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市場讓利(li)，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)經(jing)營壓(ya)力(li)越(yue)來(lai)(lai)越(yue)大。根據中電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯發布(bu)數(shu)(shu)據看到2019年6000千(qian)瓦及以上電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)在4307小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，利(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)較低(di)，單(dan)純考(kao)慮電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)供應能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，已經(jing)過(guo)剩(sheng)。但(dan)是(shi)，新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有效容量(liang)(liang)系數(shu)(shu)低(di)，在高(gao)負(fu)荷時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)段(duan)仍然需要火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)支撐，如果(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占比進一(yi)步(bu)提(ti)高(gao)，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)將(jiang)進一(yi)步(bu)壓(ya)縮，也就是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)大多新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源來(lai)(lai)發，但(dan)關鍵時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)候火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)頂上。這種情況(kuang)達到一(yi)定階段(duan)，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數(shu)(shu)將(jiang)低(di)于經(jing)營底限，不能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)覆蓋其成本，難以正常(chang)經(jing)營，或者帶來(lai)(lai)較大的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價上行壓(ya)力(li)。同時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，整個電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)供應能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)過(guo)剩(sheng)情況(kuang)將(jiang)進一(yi)步(bu)加劇。未(wei)來(lai)(lai)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)必須解決(jue)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)供應能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)大量(liang)(liang)過(guo)剩(sheng)，資產利(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)偏低(di)的問題。

B、新能源(yuan)裝機(ji)及發電量占比(bi)提升(sheng)與輔助服(fu)務需求劇增的矛盾

由于新能(neng)源機(ji)組(zu)出力隨機(ji)性較大(da)(da)(da)，新能(neng)源機(ji)組(zu)占比提升(sheng)，那么(me)調(diao)峰調(diao)頻輔助服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)需(xu)求將大(da)(da)(da)幅提升(sheng)，為滿(man)足(zu)(zu)電力系統穩定(ding)運行(xing)，輔助服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)成本(ben)(ben)將大(da)(da)(da)幅增(zeng)長(chang)，這部分成本(ben)(ben)不管在(zai)發(fa)(fa)電側內部結算(suan)還是由用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)分攤(tan)，本(ben)(ben)質上(shang)都(dou)在(zai)國民經(jing)濟電費(fei)中消化。輔助服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)需(xu)求大(da)(da)(da)幅增(zeng)長(chang)，輔助服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)成本(ben)(ben)增(zeng)長(chang)，帶(dai)來(lai)較大(da)(da)(da)的電價(jia)上(shang)行(xing)壓力，將增(zeng)加國民經(jing)濟電費(fei)負(fu)擔(dan)，不利于國民經(jing)濟健康發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。然而，具備滿(man)足(zu)(zu)輔助服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)需(xu)求能(neng)力的并不只(zhi)是發(fa)(fa)電機(ji)組(zu)，新能(neng)源技術的發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)應用(yong)(yong)使得用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)側有(you)廣泛可(ke)調(diao)資源能(neng)響(xiang)應系統輔助服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)。未來(lai)，電力系統必須解決輔助服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)需(xu)求大(da)(da)(da)幅增(zeng)長(chang)，服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)主體局(ju)限，服(fu)(fu)務(wu)(wu)(wu)能(neng)力不足(zu)(zu)問題。

C、新能(neng)源(yuan)裝機占比(bi)提升與電力系統容量效率之(zhi)間的矛盾

同樣由(you)于(yu)新能源發電(dian)(dian)有(you)效(xiao)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)系數低，為(wei)滿足系統尖(jian)峰(feng)負荷(he)需(xu)求，目前電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)全部(bu)由(you)發電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)支(zhi)(zhi)撐(cheng)，那(nei)么仍然需(xu)要(yao)(yao)大(da)量(liang)(liang)(liang)火電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)支(zhi)(zhi)撐(cheng)，理論上看(kan)這(zhe)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)支(zhi)(zhi)撐(cheng)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)利用率(lv)是非常低的。舉個簡單的例(li)(li)子(zi)，各省每年最高的5%尖(jian)峰(feng)負荷(he)持續時(shi)間合計(ji)約幾十小(xiao)時(shi)，然而為(wei)了(le)(le)滿足這(zhe)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)尖(jian)峰(feng)負荷(he)，我們建設了(le)(le)相應(ying)(ying)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的火電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)，除(chu)了(le)(le)固(gu)(gu)定(ding)資產投入(ru)外，這(zhe)些(xie)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)分(fen)(fen)攤其(qi)他時(shi)段的發電(dian)(dian)小(xiao)時(shi)數，運營維(wei)護、管理、燃(ran)料(liao)全部(bu)正常投入(ru)。如(ru)果(guo)沒有(you)這(zhe)5%的尖(jian)峰(feng)負荷(he)，這(zhe)些(xie)成(cheng)本都不(bu)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)支(zhi)(zhi)付。如(ru)果(guo)這(zhe)5%容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)有(you)其(qi)他更具(ju)經濟(ji)性的技術來實現（例(li)(li)如(ru)：儲能、電(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車V2G，用戶側需(xu)求響應(ying)(ying)等），對于(yu)發電(dian)(dian)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)供(gong)應(ying)(ying)效(xiao)率(lv)和電(dian)(dian)能量(liang)(liang)(liang)供(gong)應(ying)(ying)效(xiao)率(lv)都有(you)顯著提升。未來，電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統必須解決容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)支(zhi)(zhi)撐(cheng)效(xiao)率(lv)問題(ti)，系統穩定(ding)運行固(gu)(gu)然重要(yao)(yao)，但是通過什(shen)么機(ji)制使用哪些(xie)技術不(bu)是亙(gen)古不(bu)變的。

6、個人展望

隨(sui)著(zhu)能(neng)源需求升(sheng)級以及電力技術發展，個(ge)人認(ren)為(wei)未來新時代電力系統必(bi)將(jiang)是(shi)一(yi)個(ge)供需靈活互動、系統經濟高效、能(neng)源綠色(se)低(di)碳的電力系統。實現這一(yi)目標必(bi)須解決(jue)(jue)上述三個(ge)核心問題(ti)，而解決(jue)(jue)上述三個(ge)問題(ti)的關鍵是(shi)堅持(chi)深入推進和(he)完善(shan)電力市場改(gai)革。

我國近(jin)些(xie)年，各行業(ye)(ye)科技(ji)迅猛發(fa)展，在電力行業(ye)(ye)，尤其在新能源行業(ye)(ye)，很多領域(yu)我們有很強的產業(ye)(ye)優勢，真正限制我們電力行業(ye)(ye)和相關產業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展的不是我們自(zi)己的技(ji)術能力，而(er)是體制機制。

堅持電(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)改革(ge)，深入(ru)推進(jin)電(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)建設，破除市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)準入(ru)及市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)控價等壁壘，健(jian)全市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易品種，開放用戶側資(zi)源(yuan)準入(ru)，讓各(ge)方資(zi)源(yuan)發(fa)揮新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)技(ji)術的靈活可控、高(gao)性(xing)價比的優(you)勢(shi)，更好(hao)的參與市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)服務電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)。電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)要通過市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)機制(zhi)發(fa)現電(dian)能(neng)量、輔助服務、系(xi)統(tong)容量的真實(shi)(shi)價格信(xin)號，在一個開放公平的市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)環境實(shi)(shi)現優(you)勝劣汰，吐故納新(xin)，讓更有(you)技(ji)術優(you)勢(shi)更有(you)經營能(neng)力(li)的資(zi)源(yuan)發(fa)揮作用。沒有(you)一個客觀真實(shi)(shi)的市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)機制(zhi)，老舊低(di)效(xiao)資(zi)源(yuan)無法淘汰，新(xin)型高(gao)效(xiao)資(zi)源(yuan)難以(yi)(yi)發(fa)揮，電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)難以(yi)(yi)實(shi)(shi)現靈活、高(gao)效(xiao)、清(qing)潔目標。

有(you)(you)些朋友可(ke)能(neng)(neng)會提出一些疑問(wen)，真正(zheng)放開市(shi)場(chang)競爭(zheng)，價格信(xin)號可(ke)能(neng)(neng)短期(qi)不(bu)理性，可(ke)能(neng)(neng)會導致(zhi)部分企業(ye)(ye)或者短期(qi)內多(duo)數企業(ye)(ye)經營(ying)困難，國有(you)(you)資產(chan)流(liu)失以及人(ren)員失業(ye)(ye)。個(ge)人(ren)認為我(wo)們(men)還是應該相信(xin)市(shi)場(chang)，相信(xin)電(dian)力行業(ye)(ye)從業(ye)(ye)人(ren)員的(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)力，相信(xin)國有(you)(you)企業(ye)(ye)履職盡責的(de)(de)責任感。在交易機制(zhi)具備可(ke)行性和關(guan)鍵風險把控的(de)(de)情(qing)況下(xia)，讓市(shi)場(chang)主體真正(zheng)的(de)(de)丟掉游泳(yong)圈下(xia)水去游，才能(neng)(neng)真的(de)(de)學會游泳(yong)。否則，我(wo)們(men)繼續抱(bao)著過去的(de)(de)思維和方式(shi)走下(xia)去，只會讓電(dian)力系統越(yue)來越(yue)臃腫，效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)越(yue)來越(yue)低，積(ji)累的(de)(de)風險越(yue)來越(yue)難化(hua)解(jie)，離智慧、高(gao)效(xiao)(xiao)、綠色的(de)(de)電(dian)力系統越(yue)來越(yue)遠(yuan)。同(tong)時(shi)，我(wo)們(men)可(ke)以關(guan)注到一些發(fa)達國家，在能(neng)(neng)源轉型(xing)(xing)方面已經初(chu)有(you)(you)成效(xiao)(xiao)，建(jian)立了(le)成熟的(de)(de)市(shi)場(chang)機制(zhi)，實現了(le)較(jiao)大比例的(de)(de)可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源消納，多(duo)種(zhong)能(neng)(neng)源技術參與電(dian)力系統服務(wu)，在實現電(dian)力清潔穩定運行同(tong)時(shi)，終端用(yong)戶(hu)電(dian)價比較(jiao)合理，電(dian)力系統資產(chan)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)較(jiao)高(gao)。在能(neng)(neng)源轉型(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)大背景(jing)下(xia)，改革的(de)(de)風險是可(ke)試(shi)可(ke)控的(de)(de)，不(bu)改革才是最大的(de)(de)風險。

對于電力系統轉型，個人(ren)認為有以下幾(ji)點意義(yi)：

A、電力系統轉(zhuan)型的本體意義

通過(guo)體制機制改(gai)革及(ji)新(xin)能(neng)源技術的(de)廣泛應用(yong)，實現電力系(xi)統(tong)轉型，讓電力系(xi)統(tong)更具智慧(hui)、綠色(se)、高效等優勢，是電力系(xi)統(tong)新(xin)時(shi)代的(de)進步。市場(chang)機制能(neng)更好的(de)厘清(qing)價格機制及(ji)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)界面，能(neng)更好的(de)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)電力用(yong)戶，提升用(yong)戶體驗，提升電力行業(ye)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)實體經濟的(de)能(neng)力。

B、電力系統轉(zhuan)型的產業意(yi)義

過去(qu)，由(you)于經濟高速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的需求爆發(fa)(fa)(fa)，我們的發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)設計、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)設備制(zhi)造、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)工程(cheng)建(jian)設等行業(ye)也得到了飛速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。新時代的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系統轉(zhuan)型(xing)，開放電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)量、輔助服(fu)(fu)務、容量等市場(chang)(chang)(chang)，將(jiang)給光伏、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)需求響應、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)市場(chang)(chang)(chang)化(hua)交易、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)數字化(hua)、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)互聯網、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)托管服(fu)(fu)務、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)運營服(fu)(fu)務等產業(ye)帶(dai)來巨(ju)大市場(chang)(chang)(chang)空間。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系統的轉(zhuan)型(xing)也會給電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)行業(ye)帶(dai)來一次新生。甚至對于功率半導體、新材料、精密制(zhi)造等電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)領域(yu)核心技(ji)術研究帶(dai)來巨(ju)大活力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)。

C、電力系統轉型的(de)宏觀意義

新(xin)時(shi)代(dai)電力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統轉型(xing)(xing)，提升(sheng)電力(li)(li)(li)能源行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)效率，降低國民電力(li)(li)(li)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)消費(fei)環(huan)境污染(ran)和碳排放(fang)，提升(sheng)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)服務水平，為(wei)中國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)高(gao)質量發(fa)展(zhan)打好堅實基礎。同時(shi)，由于國內巨(ju)大(da)市(shi)場(chang)潛(qian)力(li)(li)(li)，進(jin)一步提升(sheng)我國電力(li)(li)(li)新(xin)能源相關產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)實力(li)(li)(li)及(ji)國際競爭力(li)(li)(li)，抓(zhua)住(zhu)電力(li)(li)(li)新(xin)能源發(fa)展(zhan)趨勢，在(zai)電力(li)(li)(li)新(xin)能源行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)打造像華為(wei)一樣具有(you)國際領先(xian)實力(li)(li)(li)的中國企業(ye)(ye)！電力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統從(cong)計劃經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)轉型(xing)(xing)為(wei)市(shi)場(chang)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)，激活行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)巨(ju)大(da)活力(li)(li)(li)和發(fa)展(zhan)潛(qian)力(li)(li)(li)，也為(wei)其他行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)轉型(xing)(xing)發(fa)展(zhan)樹立良好示(shi)范，助力(li)(li)(li)中國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)轉型(xing)(xing)升(sheng)級，開啟騰飛新(xin)時(shi)代(dai)！