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上半年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)生(sheng)產運行平穩，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)供需(xu)總體平衡(heng)。全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)平穩增長(chang)，第三產業和城鄉居民生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)快增長(chang)、貢(gong)獻突出；電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)延續綠色低碳發(fa)展態勢，非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)比重繼續提高，非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)快速增長(chang)；受電(dian)(dian)價進一步降(jiang)低、燃料成本持續高位、可再生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)補貼(tie)嚴重滯后等因素(su)影響(xiang)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)企(qi)業經營總體仍(reng)比較(jiao)困難。預計(ji)下半年(nian)(nian)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)消費將延續上半年(nian)(nian)的平穩增長(chang)態勢，全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比增長(chang)5.5%左右(you)；年(nian)(nian)底全(quan)(quan)國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)20億千瓦左右(you)；全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)供需(xu)總體平衡(heng)，迎峰度(du)夏期間部分地區電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)供需(xu)偏緊、高峰時段存(cun)在電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)缺(que)口。

一、2019年上半年全國電力供需情況

（一）全社會用電量平穩增長，第三產業和城鄉居民生活用電量較快增長

上半年，全(quan)(quan)國全(quan)(quan)社會用電量3.40萬億千瓦(wa)時(shi)、同比增長5.0%，一、二季度分別(bie)增長5.5%、4.5%。電力消(xiao)費(fei)主要特點(dian)有:

一(yi)是第一(yi)產(chan)業用電量中(zhong)速增長。上半年，第一(yi)產(chan)業用電量345億千瓦時、同(tong)(tong)比增長5.0%，增速比上年同(tong)(tong)期降低5.3個百分點；占全社會用電量比重為1.0%、與(yu)上年同(tong)(tong)期持平。

二(er)是(shi)第(di)(di)二(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)及其制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)穩定增長(chang)(chang)(chang)。上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)，第(di)(di)二(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.31萬億(yi)千瓦時、同比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.1%，增速(su)比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期降低4.5個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點，一(yi)(yi)、二(er)季度分(fen)(fen)別增長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.0%、3.1%。第(di)(di)二(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)對全社(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)的貢獻率為42.6%，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期降低13.9個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點；占全社(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)重(zhong)為68.0%，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期降低1.3個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點。制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.72萬億(yi)千瓦時、同比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.4%，一(yi)(yi)、二(er)季度同比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)均(jun)為3.4%。從制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)幾大(da)類(lei)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)來看(kan)，高(gao)技(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)[1]用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.5%；消費品(pin)制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)[2]用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)2.1%；四(si)大(da)高(gao)載能行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)[3]用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.4%，其中(zhong)，建材行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)6.1%，黑色行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.9%，化工行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)1.3%，有色行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)1.2%。

三(san)是第(di)三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)繼續保持較(jiao)快增(zeng)長。上半年(nian)，第(di)三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)5552億千(qian)瓦時、同比增(zeng)長9.4%，一、二季度分(fen)別增(zeng)長10.1%、8.6%；對(dui)全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長的貢獻率為(wei)29.5%，比上年(nian)同期提高6.1個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)；占全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)比重為(wei)16.3%、比上年(nian)同期提高0.7個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。其中，信(xin)息傳輸(shu)、軟件和(he)信(xin)息技術(shu)服務(wu)(wu)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)繼續保持快速(su)增(zeng)長勢(shi)頭，同比增(zeng)長13.6%；租賃和(he)商務(wu)(wu)服務(wu)(wu)業(ye)、房地產(chan)(chan)業(ye)、批發(fa)和(he)零售業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比分(fen)別增(zeng)長12.9%、11.9%、10.7%；交(jiao)通運輸(shu)/倉儲和(he)郵政業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比增(zeng)長8.6%。電(dian)(dian)(dian)能替代(dai)持續推廣催(cui)生第(di)三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)長新亮(liang)點(dian)，充換電(dian)(dian)(dian)服務(wu)(wu)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長129.0%，港口岸電(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長316.9%，城市公共交(jiao)通運輸(shu)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長18.6%。

四是城(cheng)鄉居民(min)(min)生(sheng)活用電(dian)量繼續(xu)保持較快增(zeng)長(chang)。上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)，城(cheng)鄉居民(min)(min)生(sheng)活用電(dian)量4993億(yi)千(qian)瓦時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)9.6%，一、二季(ji)度分(fen)別增(zeng)長(chang)11.0%、7.7%；對全社會用電(dian)量增(zeng)長(chang)的貢(gong)獻率為27.0%，比上(shang)年(nian)同期提(ti)高(gao)7.9個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)；占全社會用電(dian)量比重為14.7%、比上(shang)年(nian)同期提(ti)高(gao)0.6個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。

五是絕大部(bu)分(fen)省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)均(jun)為正(zheng)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長。上半年，東(dong)、中(zhong)、西部(bu)和東(dong)北地(di)區全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長3.3%、6.4%、7.3%和3.5%，中(zhong)部(bu)和西部(bu)地(di)區增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速領先(xian)于東(dong)部(bu)和東(dong)北地(di)區；各地(di)區用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占全(quan)國用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)重分(fen)別為47.0%、19.1%、27.9%和6.0%，用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長對全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長的貢獻率分(fen)別為31.7%、24.0%、40.1%和4.2%。青(qing)海(hai)、甘肅、上海(hai)3個省(sheng)(市)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)，降(jiang)(jiang)幅分(fen)別為2.8%、0.7%、0.1%；28個省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)正(zheng)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，14個用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速超過全(quan)國平均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長水平的省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)中(zhong)，除海(hai)南、河北外(wai)，其余均(jun)屬于中(zhong)、西部(bu)省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)。

（二）電力延續綠色低碳發展趨勢，非化石能源發電量快速增長

截(jie)至(zhi)6月底，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口(kou)徑(jing)發電(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)19.4億千(qian)瓦(wa)、同(tong)比(bi)增長6.1%，其(qi)中(zhong)非(fei)化(hua)石能源發電(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)占(zhan)比(bi)41.2%、同(tong)比(bi)提高(gao)1.4個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)；全(quan)(quan)國(guo)規模(mo)以上電(dian)(dian)廠發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)為(wei)3.37萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比(bi)增長3.3%；全(quan)(quan)國(guo)發電(dian)(dian)設備利用小時1834小時，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)24小時。電(dian)(dian)力(li)供應主要特點(dian)有(you)：

一是全(quan)國(guo)新(xin)增(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)規模(mo)同比(bi)減(jian)少。上(shang)半年，全(quan)國(guo)新(xin)增(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容量(liang)4074萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、同比(bi)少投產1194萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，主(zhu)要是新(xin)增(zeng)太(tai)陽能(neng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容量(liang)1164萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、同比(bi)少投產1417萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。新(xin)增(zeng)非化石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容量(liang)2506萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，占新(xin)增(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)總容量(liang)的(de)61.5%。新(xin)增(zeng)煤電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)984萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、同比(bi)少投產54萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。

二是(shi)非化石(shi)能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)快(kuai)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。上(shang)半年，全國規(gui)模以上(shang)電(dian)(dian)廠水電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)5138億(yi)千瓦(wa)時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)11.8%，核電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1600億(yi)千瓦(wa)時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)23.1%，全口徑并網風電(dian)(dian)、并網太陽能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)分別(bie)為2145、1063億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同比分別(bie)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)11.5%、29.1%。受(shou)用電(dian)(dian)需求增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)放(fang)緩、水電(dian)(dian)等非化石(shi)能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)快(kuai)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)等因素影響，全國規(gui)模以上(shang)火電(dian)(dian)廠發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.45萬億(yi)千瓦(wa)時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)0.2%。

三是水電(dian)(dian)(dian)和太陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)高。上半年，全國水電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)1674小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)高169小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；火電(dian)(dian)(dian)2066小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)60小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，其(qi)中(zhong)，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)2127小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)57小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，氣(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)1212小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)121小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)3429小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)118小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；并網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)1133小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)10小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，為2013年以(yi)來的第二高水平，僅低于(yu)2018年同(tong)期；并網(wang)太陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)650小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)高13小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。棄(qi)風棄(qi)光問題繼(ji)續(xu)改善，國家電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公(gong)司、南方電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公(gong)司經營區域內新能(neng)源利(li)用(yong)率均超(chao)過95%。

四(si)是110千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)及(ji)以(yi)下電(dian)(dian)網投資比(bi)重同比(bi)提高。上(shang)半年(nian)，全國基建新增220千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)變電(dian)(dian)設備容量(liang)13238萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)安(an)、同比(bi)少投產(chan)1743萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)安(an)；新增220千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)及(ji)以(yi)上(shang)輸電(dian)(dian)線(xian)路長(chang)度16292千(qian)(qian)(qian)米(mi)、同比(bi)少投產(chan)6105千(qian)(qian)(qian)米(mi)。110千(qian)(qian)(qian)伏(fu)及(ji)以(yi)下電(dian)(dian)網投資占電(dian)(dian)網總投資的比(bi)重為(wei)64.3%，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同期(qi)提高8.2個百分點，配網建設及(ji)農網改造升級是當前電(dian)(dian)網投資建設重點。

五(wu)是跨區(qu)跨省(sheng)送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較快(kuai)增(zeng)長(chang)，清潔能源得到大(da)范圍優化配(pei)置。上半年(nian)，全國跨區(qu)、跨省(sheng)送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量分別(bie)完成(cheng)2243、6426億千瓦時(shi)，同比分別(bie)增(zeng)長(chang)11.2%、12.0%。西北區(qu)域是外送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量最多的區(qu)域，上半年(nian)外送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量911億千瓦時(shi)，占全國跨區(qu)送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量的40.6%，外送(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量比上年(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)15.9%。

六是電(dian)(dian)力(li)燃料(liao)供(gong)應總(zong)體(ti)(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)，電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)價格(ge)高(gao)(gao)位波(bo)(bo)動。上(shang)(shang)半年，全國(guo)規模以(yi)上(shang)(shang)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)礦原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)產量增長(chang)3.7%，全國(guo)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭進口(kou)量增長(chang)5.7%，全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)廠發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)及供(gong)熱消耗煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭增長(chang)3.4%，全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)廠存(cun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)處于高(gao)(gao)位，電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)供(gong)應總(zong)體(ti)(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)。受煤(mei)(mei)(mei)礦安(an)全事故、安(an)全生產督查、公路超(chao)限超(chao)載運輸治理等因素影(ying)響(xiang)，局部地區部分時段電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)供(gong)應偏緊。電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)價格(ge)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)位波(bo)(bo)動，2月份以(yi)來，CECI沿(yan)海指數各期綜合價均(jun)超(chao)過(guo)《關(guan)于印發(fa)(fa)平(ping)抑(yi)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭市場價格(ge)異(yi)常波(bo)(bo)動的備忘錄的通知》（發(fa)(fa)改運行〔2016〕2808號(hao)）規定的綠色區間上(shang)(shang)限，國(guo)內煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)企業(ye)燃料(liao)成本居高(gao)(gao)不下。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，局部地區出現錯避峰

上半年，全國電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)總體平(ping)衡(heng)。其(qi)中，東(dong)北(bei)(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)網區域電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)能力(li)富余；華(hua)北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)中、華(hua)東(dong)、南(nan)方(fang)電(dian)(dian)網區域電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)總體平(ping)衡(heng)，江西(xi)、湖北(bei)(bei)、海南(nan)等省份(fen)部分時(shi)段出現錯避峰。

二、全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）下半年用電量延續平穩增長態勢，全年增長5.5%左右

綜合(he)考慮國內外宏(hong)觀經濟(ji)形勢(shi)、電(dian)能替代、上年(nian)基數、環保安全(quan)檢查等因素(su)，下半年(nian)電(dian)力消費仍將延續上半年(nian)的(de)平穩增(zeng)長(chang)態勢(shi)，預計2019年(nian)全(quan)國全(quan)社會(hui)用電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)5.5%左右。若夏季全(quan)國大部地區氣溫(wen)低于2018年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期，全(quan)年(nian)用電(dian)量實際增(zeng)速可能會(hui)偏低于預測值。

（二）總裝機容量年底達20億千瓦，非化石能源裝機比重提高至42%

預計2019年全(quan)國新增(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)1.1億千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右；截(jie)至(zhi)2019年底，全(quan)國發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)20億千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右，同比增(zeng)長(chang)6%；非(fei)化石能源發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)合(he)計8.4億千瓦(wa)(wa)、占總(zong)裝機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)比重上升(sheng)至(zhi)42%左(zuo)右，其中，水電(dian)(dian)3.6億千瓦(wa)(wa)、并網風電(dian)(dian)2.1億千瓦(wa)(wa)、并網太陽(yang)能發電(dian)(dian)2.0億千瓦(wa)(wa)、核電(dian)(dian)4900萬千瓦(wa)(wa)、生物(wu)質發電(dian)(dian)2200萬千瓦(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右。

預(yu)計2019年(nian)底，全國(guo)發(fa)(fa)電裝機容量(liang)可(ke)提前(qian)達到2020年(nian)20億千瓦(wa)的(de)規(gui)劃目(mu)標，太陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電裝機容量(liang)遠超2020年(nian)1.1億千瓦(wa)的(de)規(gui)劃目(mu)標，非化石能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電裝機比(bi)重也(ye)將超過2020年(nian)39%的(de)規(gui)劃目(mu)標。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，迎峰度夏期間部分地區偏緊

預計下半年全國(guo)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體平(ping)衡，部分(fen)地區(qu)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏(pian)緊(jin)，迎峰(feng)度(du)夏高(gao)(gao)峰(feng)時(shi)段存(cun)在電(dian)力(li)缺口。分(fen)區(qu)域(yu)看(kan)，華北(bei)、華中區(qu)域(yu)高(gao)(gao)峰(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)緊(jin)張，部分(fen)省份在高(gao)(gao)峰(feng)時(shi)段需(xu)要采取(qu)錯避峰(feng)措施(shi)；華東、南(nan)方區(qu)域(yu)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體平(ping)衡；東北(bei)、西北(bei)區(qu)域(yu)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)應富余。預計全年火電(dian)設備利(li)用小時(shi)略低于2018年的(de)4378小時(shi)。

三、有關建議

當前已進(jin)入(ru)迎峰度夏關鍵(jian)期，下(xia)(xia)半年重大活動保(bao)電(dian)任務(wu)較(jiao)為繁重，要(yao)切實按照(zhao)高質量發(fa)展要(yao)求，做好用(yong)電(dian)預(yu)(yu)測(ce)預(yu)(yu)警和用(yong)電(dian)服務(wu)，保(bao)證電(dian)力燃料供給，保(bao)障電(dian)力生產供應，緩(huan)解電(dian)力企業(ye)經營(ying)困難(nan)，滿足實體(ti)經濟和行業(ye)發(fa)展要(yao)求、以及人民美好生活用(yong)電(dian)需求。結合電(dian)力供需分(fen)析(xi)與預(yu)(yu)測(ce)，提(ti)出建議如下(xia)(xia)：

（一）密切跟蹤宏觀經濟形勢變化，助力實體經濟發展

建議加(jia)強用電(dian)監(jian)測分析預警，落實好一(yi)般工(gong)(gong)商業降電(dian)價政策，做好電(dian)力(li)服務與電(dian)能替代等工(gong)(gong)作，助(zhu)力(li)實體經濟發展。

一是建立政府(fu)相關部門(men)與行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)協會溝通協調機制，完(wan)善(shan)涉美(mei)出(chu)口企業(ye)(ye)清單，密切跟(gen)蹤對美(mei)進出(chu)口企業(ye)(ye)用電及業(ye)(ye)擴數據變化(hua)，加強分(fen)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)、分(fen)地(di)區用電分(fen)析預測，服(fu)務宏觀經濟決策和行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展。

二是在落實2019年一般工商業平均電價(jia)再降10%要求基礎上，持續清理(li)規范轉供電環節(jie)不合理(li)加(jia)價(jia)，確保(bao)將降電價(jia)紅(hong)利惠(hui)及終端用戶，實現用電企業降本增(zeng)效。

三(san)是持續優(you)化供電組織體系和業務(wu)流(liu)程，提高需求響(xiang)應速度和服務(wu)質量，縮短企(qi)業“獲(huo)得(de)電力”時(shi)間，優(you)化營商環(huan)境，服務(wu)實體經濟發展(zhan)。

四(si)是加大燃煤自備電(dian)廠(chang)清(qing)潔替代、工(gong)業(ye)鍋(guo)（窯）爐(lu)替代，聚(ju)焦工(gong)業(ye)生產、交通運(yun)輸、鄉村(cun)電(dian)氣化等重點領域，加大替代推(tui)廣力度；逐步提高電(dian)能占終端能源比重，推(tui)動能源結構綠色低碳轉型。

（二）扎實做好電力供需平衡工作，確保電力安全穩定供應

建(jian)議根據電力供需趨緊形(xing)勢，加快(kuai)系統調峰能(neng)力建(jian)設(she),加強(qiang)需求側管理(li),進(jin)一步完善市場機(ji)制調動(dong)火電機(ji)組靈活(huo)性(xing)改造(zao)積極性(xing)。

一是盡快將具備投產(chan)條件的應(ying)急儲備電(dian)源納(na)入投產(chan)計劃，確保(bao)具備條件的電(dian)廠在迎峰(feng)度夏(xia)期間發揮作用(yong)。

二是推動(dong)煤炭(tan)優(you)質(zhi)產能釋放(fang)，合理安排運力，對煤炭(tan)供(gong)應不足(zu)和運力受制約區(qu)域，在(zai)鐵(tie)路運力配置上予以傾斜；加快(kuai)進(jin)口(kou)煤通關(guan)速度，保障(zhang)發電燃料穩定(ding)供(gong)應。

三是盡快研(yan)究出臺(tai)容(rong)量(liang)電價(jia)，建立容(rong)量(liang)市(shi)場(chang)和輔助服(fu)務市(shi)場(chang)，進一步(bu)理(li)順煤電價(jia)格形成機制(zhi)，調(diao)動火(huo)電靈(ling)活性改造運(yun)行積(ji)極性，提高電網頂峰發電能力(li)。

四是加強需求側管理，擴大峰(feng)(feng)谷(gu)電價執(zhi)行(xing)范圍，確定(ding)科學(xue)合理的峰(feng)(feng)谷(gu)分時電價比，按最(zui)大供需缺口制定(ding)落實有序用(yong)電措施(shi)，引導用(yong)戶錯峰(feng)(feng)用(yong)電，實現削峰(feng)(feng)填谷(gu)、移峰(feng)(feng)平谷(gu)，全力滿足用(yong)電需求。

五是加快(kuai)現有特高壓輸(shu)送通道(dao)的配(pei)套電源建設，合理(li)布局保障性(xing)發電機組，緩解東中部地(di)區的電力(li)硬缺口。

六是加快抽水蓄能、燃氣、儲能等調峰電(dian)站建設，提升電(dian)力系統削峰填(tian)谷和平衡調節能力。

（三）高度重視電力企業經營困難，維護行業可持續發展能力

重視電(dian)網(wang)、煤電(dian)及新能源(yuan)企業經營(ying)困難，高度關注近期火電(dian)廠破產清算問題，建議(yi)做好價(jia)格形成機制、電(dian)煤中長(chang)期合同價(jia)格及履約監(jian)管、新能源(yuan)補貼(tie)發放等工作(zuo)。

一是(shi)合理核定第二個(ge)監(jian)管周期輸配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)水平，建(jian)立健(jian)全保障電(dian)(dian)網(wang)持續發展(zhan)的輸配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機制(zhi)，統籌解決電(dian)(dian)網(wang)投資(zi)建(jian)設、電(dian)(dian)價(jia)交叉(cha)補貼、東西部幫扶等問題，支撐(cheng)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)健(jian)康可(ke)持續發展(zhan)。

二(er)是加強電煤中長(chang)(chang)期(qi)合(he)(he)同監管確(que)保履(lv)約，完善價(jia)(jia)格(ge)條(tiao)款，明確(que)年(nian)度(du)長(chang)(chang)協定價(jia)(jia)機(ji)制(zhi)，嚴禁以月度(du)長(chang)(chang)協、外購長(chang)(chang)協等捆綁(bang)年(nian)度(du)長(chang)(chang)協變相漲價(jia)(jia)；保持進口煤政策連(lian)續性，引(yin)導市場合(he)(he)理(li)預期(qi)，控(kong)制(zhi)電煤價(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)合(he)(he)理(li)區間，緩解煤電企(qi)業經營困境。

三是盡(jin)快推(tui)進電煤(mei)中長(chang)協(xie)合同含稅基準(zhun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)調整及價(jia)(jia)(jia)格區間，協(xie)調煤(mei)炭生產企業相應調整電煤(mei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格，推(tui)動降(jiang)稅紅利有(you)效傳導(dao)至(zhi)終端用戶(hu)。

四是適(shi)度增(zeng)加(jia)對火(huo)電企(qi)業(ye)的信(xin)貸支持(chi)力度，確(que)保落(luo)實存量接續(xu)，避免火(huo)電企(qi)業(ye)虧(kui)損面持(chi)續(xu)擴大(da)，形成(cheng)破產清算(suan)潮。

五是按(an)約(yue)定加快可再生能源(yuan)補貼(tie)(tie)目(mu)錄公(gong)布和補貼(tie)(tie)資(zi)(zi)金發(fa)放，盡快解(jie)(jie)決(jue)巨額拖欠問(wen)題，緩解(jie)(jie)企業經營和資(zi)(zi)金壓力；開(kai)發(fa)針對風電、光伏等清(qing)潔(jie)能源(yuan)項目(mu)的融資(zi)(zi)品種(zhong)，將應收補貼(tie)(tie)款(kuan)納入(ru)流(liu)貸支持范圍，解(jie)(jie)決(jue)全行業補貼(tie)(tie)資(zi)(zi)金缺口；實施(shi)促進可再生能源(yuan)等清(qing)潔(jie)能源(yuan)發(fa)展的綠色信貸政策。