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4月(yue)30日，中電聯發(fa)(fa)布《2019年一季度(du)全國電力(li)供(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢分(fen)析預(yu)測報(bao)告(gao)》。報(bao)告(gao)顯示，2019年第(di)一季度(du)全國全社會用電量(liang)1.68萬億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時、同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.5%，非化石能源發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)年底全國發(fa)(fa)電裝機(ji)容量(liang)達到20億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)、同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6%左(zuo)右，非化石能源發(fa)(fa)電裝機(ji)合計(ji)(ji)達到8.4億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右、占總裝機(ji)容量(liang)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)上升至42%。

一、2019年一季度全國電力供需狀況

（一）全社會用電量增速回落，當季增速符合年初預期

一季(ji)度(du)，全國全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.68萬億千瓦時、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長5.5%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)四季(ji)度(du)回落1.8個百分點，當季(ji)增(zeng)速符合年(nian)(nian)初預(yu)期。分月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)看，1-2月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長4.5%；3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)增(zeng)速上(shang)升至(zhi)7.5%。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)工(gong)業生(sheng)產的(de)(de)(de)回升，是當月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速回升的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要原因，當月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)工(gong)業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長對全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)貢獻率從1-2月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)的(de)(de)(de)14.5%上(shang)升至(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)的(de)(de)(de)55.0%。

主要特點有:

一(yi)是第(di)二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)回落。一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度，第(di)二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.09萬(wan)億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.0%，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年四季(ji)(ji)度回落3.9個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點；第(di)二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)占全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為65.2%，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)1.6個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點。制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)8027億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.4%，其中，在上(shang)年同期低(di)基數以及工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)回升的拉動(dong)下，3月份制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.0%。從制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)幾(ji)大類行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)來看，一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度高(gao)技(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)[1]用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.3%，高(gao)于(yu)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)。消費(fei)品(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)[3]用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.3%。四大高(gao)載能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)[2]用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.8%，其中，非金屬礦物制(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.0%；化學原料和(he)化學制(zhi)品(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.9%；黑色金屬冶(ye)煉和(he)壓延加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.8%；有色金屬冶(ye)煉和(he)壓延加工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)0.4%。

二是第(di)三產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量繼(ji)續快速增(zeng)長。一季(ji)度，第(di)三產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量2859億千(qian)瓦時、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長10.1%，占全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量比(bi)(bi)重為16.3%、同(tong)比(bi)(bi)提高0.7個百分點。其(qi)中，信息傳輸、軟件和(he)(he)信息技術(shu)服務業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)繼(ji)續延續近年來快速增(zeng)長勢頭，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長15.6%；租賃和(he)(he)商務服務業(ye)、房地產(chan)(chan)業(ye)、批發和(he)(he)零售業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量同(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)長14.4%、12.7%、11.8%；交通運(yun)輸、倉(cang)儲和(he)(he)郵政(zheng)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量增(zeng)長9.2%。

三是城鄉居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量快(kuai)速(su)增長。一季(ji)度(du)，城鄉居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量2830億千瓦(wa)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長11.0%，所(suo)占全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量比(bi)重為16.0%、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提高(gao)0.8個百分(fen)點。其中，城鎮居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量1613億千瓦(wa)時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長10.2%；鄉村(cun)居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)量1218億千瓦(wa)時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長12.2%。

四是第一產業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量較(jiao)快增(zeng)(zeng)長。一季度，第一產業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量160億千瓦(wa)時(shi)、同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長6.8%，占全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量比(bi)重為0.9%、與上年同期持平。其中，畜牧(mu)產品、漁(yu)業產品規模化(hua)生產逐步增(zeng)(zeng)多，帶動畜牧(mu)業、漁(yu)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長8.6%和12.4%。

五是第(di)三產業(ye)(ye)和(he)城鄉居民生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)是全(quan)(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的主要(yao)拉動(dong)力。一季度，第(di)二產業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)對全(quan)(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻率(lv)為36.4%，同(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低10.4個百分(fen)點，是全(quan)(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速回落的重要(yao)原(yuan)因。第(di)三產業(ye)(ye)、城鄉居民生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)對全(quan)(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻率(lv)分(fen)別(bie)為30.2%和(he)32.2%，同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)別(bie)提高5.0和(he)5.7個百分(fen)點；兩者貢獻率(lv)合計達(da)到62.4%，是支撐全(quan)(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)(she)會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的最主要(yao)動(dong)力。

六是中(zhong)西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)用(yong)(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)領(ling)先，絕大部(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)省份(fen)用(yong)(yong)電量正增(zeng)(zeng)長。一季度，東(dong)(dong)、中(zhong)、西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和(he)東(dong)(dong)北(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)全社會用(yong)(yong)電量同比分(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)長3.7%、8.3%、7.3%和(he)2.4%；中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)用(yong)(yong)電量占(zhan)全國用(yong)(yong)電量的比重均同比提高(gao)0.5個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)；東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和(he)東(dong)(dong)北(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)用(yong)(yong)電量占(zhan)比同比分(fen)別降低0.8和(he)0.2個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。全國31個(ge)(ge)省份(fen)中(zhong)除青海和(he)黑龍(long)江外，其他(ta)29個(ge)(ge)省份(fen)用(yong)(yong)電量均實現正增(zeng)(zeng)長；16個(ge)(ge)用(yong)(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)高(gao)于(yu)全國平均水平的省份(fen)中(zhong)，除海南(nan)、河北(bei)和(he)浙(zhe)江3個(ge)(ge)省份(fen)外，其余均屬(shu)于(yu)中(zhong)、西(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)省份(fen)。

（二）電力延續綠色低碳發展趨勢，電力投資和投產規模同比下降

一季度，全國主(zhu)要電(dian)力(li)企業合(he)計(ji)完(wan)成投資(zi)908億(yi)元、同比(bi)下(xia)降16.0%。其(qi)中，電(dian)源投資(zi)下(xia)降4.3%，電(dian)網投資(zi)下(xia)降23.5%。截至3月底，全國6000千瓦(wa)及(ji)以上發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量18.1億(yi)千瓦(wa)、同比(bi)增長(chang)5.9%；全國全口徑發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量19.2億(yi)千瓦(wa)、同比(bi)增長(chang)6.4%。電(dian)力(li)供應主(zhu)要特點有：

一(yi)是新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)以及(ji)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模同(tong)比減少(shao)。全國(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)1788萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，同(tong)比少(shao)投(tou)產(chan)716萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。其(qi)中，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)資同(tong)比下降31.3%，新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)397萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、同(tong)比少(shao)投(tou)產(chan)23萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)；新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)非化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)1192萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)總容(rong)量(liang)的66.7%。3月(yue)底，全國(guo)并(bing)網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)1.9億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長12.7%；全口徑并(bing)網太陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)1.8億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長29.3%。

二是非化(hua)石能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)快速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。一季度，全(quan)國規模(mo)以上電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為1.67萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.2%。其中，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.27萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)2.0%；水電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)2159億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)12.0%；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)770億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)26.1%。全(quan)國全(quan)口(kou)徑(jing)并網(wang)(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、并網(wang)(wang)太陽能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)分別為1041、439億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同比分別增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)6.1%和26.6%。

三(san)是除水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)外的其他類型發(fa)電(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)均(jun)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降。一季度，全國發(fa)電(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)平均(jun)利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)919小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降4小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。其中，由于來水(shui)(shui)情況相對(dui)較好，水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)691小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提高74小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；火(huo)電(dian)(dian)1083小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降6小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，其中，煤電(dian)(dian)1122小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降3小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，氣電(dian)(dian)603小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降45小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；核電(dian)(dian)1655小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降35小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)556小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降37小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；并(bing)網(wang)太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)283小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下降6小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。

四是110千伏(fu)及(ji)以下電網(wang)投(tou)(tou)資比(bi)重明顯(xian)提(ti)高。一季度，110千伏(fu)及(ji)以下電網(wang)投(tou)(tou)資占電網(wang)總投(tou)(tou)資的(de)比(bi)重為66.5%，同比(bi)提(ti)高14.7個百分點。全國基建新增220千伏(fu)及(ji)以上變電設備容量6172萬千伏(fu)安、同比(bi)少(shao)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)169萬千伏(fu)安；新增220千伏(fu)及(ji)以上輸電線路(lu)長度5744千米、同比(bi)少(shao)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)2706千米。

五是跨區跨省送(song)電量較(jiao)快增(zeng)長(chang)，清潔(jie)能(neng)源得到大(da)范圍優化配置。一季度，全國跨區、跨省送(song)電量分(fen)(fen)別(bie)完成1054和2984億千瓦(wa)時(shi)，同(tong)比分(fen)(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)長(chang)8.4%和10.2%。

六是電(dian)(dian)力燃料供(gong)需總體(ti)平(ping)(ping)衡，地區性(xing)時(shi)段性(xing)偏緊。一季度，煤炭生(sheng)產(chan)量微增(zeng)、進口量下降，煤炭供(gong)應量增(zeng)長(chang)慢于(yu)(yu)消費量增(zeng)長(chang)，電(dian)(dian)煤供(gong)需出現地區性(xing)階段性(xing)偏緊。電(dian)(dian)煤價(jia)格總體(ti)呈現高位上漲特征(zheng)，2月以來中(zhong)國電(dian)(dian)煤采購(gou)(gou)價(jia)格指數CECI各期綜合價(jia)均(jun)超過《關于(yu)(yu)印發平(ping)(ping)抑煤炭市(shi)場價(jia)格異常波動的備忘錄的通知》（發改運行〔2016〕2808號）規定的綠(lv)色區間上限(xian)，國內煤電(dian)(dian)企業采購(gou)(gou)成本仍居高位。

圖：中國沿海電(dian)煤采購價格指數(shu)（CECI沿海指數(shu)）周價格

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，局部地區在1月出現錯避峰

一季(ji)度，全(quan)國電力(li)供需形勢總體平衡(heng)。華中區(qu)域(yu)部(bu)分省份高峰時段電力(li)供需偏緊，主要是江西、湖北在1月份受寒潮天(tian)氣(qi)等(deng)因素影響出現缺口、采(cai)取了錯避峰措施；華北、華東、南方區(qu)域(yu)電力(li)供需總體平衡(heng)；東北、西北區(qu)域(yu)電力(li)供應能力(li)富(fu)余(yu)。

二、全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）全社會用電量平穩增長，全年增速低于2018年

預計上(shang)半(ban)年全(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比增(zeng)長5.5%左右(you)。在平水年、沒有大范圍(wei)(wei)極(ji)端(duan)氣(qi)溫影響的情況下，預計全(quan)年全(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)長5.5%左右(you)；若夏(xia)季(ji)出現大范圍(wei)(wei)極(ji)端(duan)高溫天(tian)氣(qi)，將可能(neng)上(shang)拉全(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速1個百分點左右(you)。

（二）年底總裝機容量達到20億千瓦，非化石能源裝機比重進一步提高

預計全(quan)年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國基(ji)建新增(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量1.1億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右(you)，其中(zhong)非化石能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)投產7000萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右(you)。預計年(nian)(nian)底全(quan)國發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量達(da)到20億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、同比(bi)增(zeng)長6%左(zuo)右(you)；其中(zhong)，水電(dian)(dian)3.6億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、并網風電(dian)(dian)2.1億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、并網太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)2.0億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)4900萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、生物質(zhi)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)2200萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右(you)。非化石能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)合計達(da)到8.4億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)左(zuo)右(you)、占總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量比(bi)重上升至42%，比(bi)2018年(nian)(nian)底提高1.2個百分點左(zuo)右(you)。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，迎峰度夏期間部分地區電力供需偏緊

預(yu)計全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)(xu)總體平(ping)衡(heng)，部(bu)分地區電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)(xu)偏緊、供需(xu)(xu)形勢較前兩年緊張，在(zai)迎(ying)峰(feng)度夏高峰(feng)時段(duan)存在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力缺口、需(xu)(xu)要采(cai)(cai)取(qu)錯(cuo)避(bi)(bi)峰(feng)措(cuo)施。分區域(yu)看，華(hua)北、華(hua)中、華(hua)東電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)(xu)偏緊，部(bu)分省份高峰(feng)時段(duan)需(xu)(xu)要采(cai)(cai)取(qu)錯(cuo)避(bi)(bi)峰(feng)措(cuo)施；南方區域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)(xu)總體平(ping)衡(heng)；東北、西北區域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應(ying)富余。預(yu)計全(quan)年火電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利用小時4400小時左右。

三、有關建議

今(jin)年(nian)是新中國成(cheng)立70周年(nian)，是全面(mian)建成(cheng)小(xiao)康(kang)社會、實現第一個百年(nian)奮斗目標的關鍵之年(nian)。電(dian)力(li)行業堅(jian)持以習(xi)近平新時代中國特色社會主義思(si)想為指導(dao)，全面(mian)貫徹落(luo)實全國兩會精神，深(shen)入推(tui)進“四個革命、一個合(he)作(zuo)”能源安全新戰略，著力(li)深(shen)化(hua)供(gong)給側(ce)結(jie)構性改(gai)(gai)革，堅(jian)定(ding)不移推(tui)動電(dian)力(li)高質量發展。當前，國內(nei)經濟面(mian)臨下(xia)行壓力(li)，電(dian)力(li)市場改(gai)(gai)革縱深(shen)推(tui)進，行業發展和企業經營形勢嚴(yan)峻，結(jie)合(he)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需分析與預測，報告提出有關建議如下(xia)：

（一）多措并舉，著力保障電力安全穩定供應

建議(yi)做好迎峰度夏及重大(da)活(huo)動保電預案、系統安全(quan)運維、項目投產(chan)及需求(qiu)側管理等工(gong)作(zuo)，避免因電力供需緊張(zhang)導致(zhi)電力短缺和(he)安全(quan)運行風(feng)險(xian)。

一是(shi)加強電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)安(an)全防護體系(xi)建設和演(yan)練，提(ti)前加強電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)重要設備(bei)、重要場所、重要通(tong)道、重要時段運維管理(li)，做好安(an)全事故預案，確(que)保電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)安(an)全。

二(er)是結合供(gong)需形勢變化(hua)(hua)，將具備投(tou)產條件的應(ying)急儲備電源(yuan)及時納入投(tou)產計劃(hua)，提(ti)高供(gong)應(ying)保障能力(li)；充分發揮大電網作用，實現電力(li)大范圍資源(yuan)優化(hua)(hua)配置。

三(san)是更加重(zhong)視需求(qiu)側(ce)管理，擴大(da)峰(feng)谷電(dian)(dian)價(jia)執行范(fan)圍，確定(ding)科學、合理的峰(feng)谷分時電(dian)(dian)價(jia)比，按最大(da)供需缺口制定(ding)落(luo)實有(you)序用電(dian)(dian)措(cuo)施，引導用戶錯峰(feng)用電(dian)(dian)，實現削峰(feng)填谷、移(yi)峰(feng)平谷。

（二）穩妥有序，著力平衡電網企業紅利釋放與可持續發展

建議重點抓好(hao)輸配(pei)電成本歸集、增量配(pei)電網改(gai)革(ge)推進步伐、綜合能源服務及電能替代等工作，在釋(shi)放(fang)改(gai)革(ge)紅利的同時(shi)，多措并舉緩解電網企業利潤大幅下降、虧損(sun)面持續擴(kuo)大的壓力。

一(yi)是(shi)在輸配(pei)電(dian)價(jia)監審中(zhong)，考(kao)慮不同地區經(jing)濟發(fa)展水平、設備運行環境，電(dian)網發(fa)展階(jie)段等因素，進行差異化輸配(pei)電(dian)成本歸集。

二(er)是穩(wen)妥有序推(tui)進增量配(pei)電(dian)業務改革(ge)，適當把控改革(ge)試點推(tui)進的節奏，在前(qian)三批(pi)試點項(xiang)目推(tui)進緩慢(man)的情況下，審慎將改革(ge)試點向縣域(yu)延伸；同時加強頂層設(she)計和監(jian)管能力，確保項(xiang)目在申(shen)報(bao)等各階段有規可依、有章可循。

三是持續(xu)清理規范(fan)轉供電(dian)(dian)環節不合理加價(jia)，確保(bao)降(jiang)價(jia)紅利傳導至(zhi)一般(ban)工商(shang)業用電(dian)(dian)；建議通過創新用戶增值服(fu)務模式、擴(kuo)大電(dian)(dian)能替代等(deng)多種方式，擴(kuo)大利潤渠道(dao)和來源；同(tong)時，采(cai)取綜(zong)合措施(shi)，保(bao)障完成2019年國家一般(ban)工商(shang)業電(dian)(dian)價(jia)再(zai)降(jiang)10%的任務。

（三）強化執行，著力解決發電企業經營困境

建(jian)議(yi)做好電煤含稅基準價調(diao)整、燃料保(bao)供、穩定電煤價格、電煤中長協合同監督等(deng)工作，緩解發(fa)電企業經營困境。

一是加大煤電企業(ye)政策(ce)支持力度，盡快(kuai)推進(jin)電煤中(zhong)長協(xie)合(he)同含稅基(ji)(ji)準價(jia)調整(zheng)。建議明(ming)確中(zhong)長協(xie)合(he)同不(bu)含稅的基(ji)(ji)準價(jia)格，并(bing)根據最新稅率調整(zheng)計算含稅基(ji)(ji)準價(jia)，同時協(xie)調相關煤炭生產企業(ye)相應調整(zheng)電煤價(jia)格，推動降(jiang)稅紅利(li)有效(xiao)傳(chuan)導(dao)至終端用戶(hu)。

二是加(jia)強電煤(mei)(mei)監測，保障電煤(mei)(mei)穩定(ding)供應(ying)。推動優質煤(mei)(mei)炭產能釋(shi)放并盡(jin)快形成有效產能；適時(shi)調整進口煤(mei)(mei)指標，統籌利(li)用兩個市場、兩種資源；針對當前電煤(mei)(mei)中長(chang)協合(he)同(tong)捆綁月(yue)度長(chang)協及變(bian)相增(zeng)加(jia)外購煤(mei)(mei)比例(li)，造成實際中長(chang)協合(he)同(tong)量大幅減少的(de)(de)情況，完(wan)善(shan)電煤(mei)(mei)中長(chang)期合(he)同(tong)定(ding)價(jia)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)和監督機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)，充分發揮中長(chang)協穩價(jia)保供的(de)(de)“壓艙石”作用；對產能減少和運力受明顯制(zhi)(zhi)約的(de)(de)區域合(he)理安(an)排(pai)運力，在鐵路(lu)運力配置上予以傾斜。

三是完善火電(dian)機組調峰輔助服務(wu)補(bu)(bu)償機制(zhi)，提高機組改(gai)造(zao)積極性(xing)，加快煤(mei)電(dian)靈活性(xing)改(gai)造(zao)進(jin)度；給予(yu)專項資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)補(bu)(bu)助和專項債轉(zhuan)股(gu)政策傾斜(xie)，促進(jin)長期(qi)虧(kui)損(sun)的煤(mei)電(dian)企業扭虧(kui)轉(zhuan)盈，恢復自我(wo)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)能力(li)，實現資(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)正常周轉(zhuan)，緩解煤(mei)電(dian)企業去杠桿壓力(li)。

（四）統籌協調，著力促進新能源企業健康發展

建議(yi)做(zuo)好新能源發展節奏控制等工作。避免出現新能源裝機大規模集中過(guo)快(kuai)投產、系統(tong)調峰能力不匹(pi)配(pei)導致的消納(na)困難(nan)及加劇可再生(sheng)能源補貼缺口。

一是適度(du)控制海上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)進(jin)度(du)，促進(jin)海上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)健康(kang)發(fa)展。建(jian)議結合網源規劃(hua)和新能源消(xiao)納情(qing)況，國家層面上(shang)統(tong)籌海上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)及布局(ju)，防(fang)止地方“資源換產(chan)業”的(de)不合理行政干預，避免出現大規模集中投產(chan)現象，導致電(dian)(dian)量無(wu)法消(xiao)納，造成(cheng)資源浪費資產(chan)閑置；同時，推高(gao)可再生能源補貼缺口，企業投入無(wu)法按(an)時回收成(cheng)本，給經營造成(cheng)壓力，更不利于(yu)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)全產(chan)業鏈健康(kang)發(fa)展。

二是合理把握(wo)發(fa)(fa)展節奏，通過技術(shu)創新引領風電、光伏(fu)產業實現平價上網(wang)。建議有序(xu)實施可再(zai)生能源補貼退坡，避免釜底(di)抽薪式產業發(fa)(fa)展政(zheng)策(ce)。通過合理引導和市場(chang)化調節手(shou)段，加(jia)快建立產業鏈協(xie)同、產學(xue)研一體(ti)化的(de)(de)自主科技創新體(ti)系，激發(fa)(fa)新能源企(qi)業應用(yong)先進技術(shu)降本增(zeng)效的(de)(de)動(dong)力，逐步實現平價上網(wang)。

三是落實(shi)可再生能源(yuan)補(bu)貼(tie)(tie)資(zi)金(jin)。加(jia)快可再生能源(yuan)補(bu)貼(tie)(tie)目(mu)錄(lu)公布(bu)和(he)補(bu)貼(tie)(tie)資(zi)金(jin)發放，通過市場化手段拓寬資(zi)金(jin)來源(yuan)，盡快解(jie)決巨額拖欠問題；針對補(bu)貼(tie)(tie)不到位的(de)(de)情況，開發綠色信貸產品，解(jie)決由于補(bu)貼(tie)(tie)不到位造成的(de)(de)企業現金(jin)流短缺。