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倍受矚目的十九屆五中全會審議通過“十四五”規劃和二零三五年遠景目標的建議，為我國今后的發展擘畫了雄偉的藍圖。

2020年(nian)是(shi)(shi)我國全面建(jian)成小(xiao)康社會的決戰之年(nian)，也是(shi)(shi)我國完(wan)成“十三五”規劃(hua)的收(shou)官(guan)之年(nian)。

尤其(qi)今年伊始飛出的新(xin)冠疫情這個超(chao)級“黑天鵝”給國際地(di)緣政治(zhi)、全球(qiu)經濟社(she)會發展帶來巨大沖擊和負面(mian)影(ying)響，導(dao)致全球(qiu)能源電(dian)力投資與(yu)建(jian)設市場的不確定性(xing)顯著增加。

面對(dui)日益復雜的(de)國內外(wai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展環境，作為國民(min)經濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)展“先行官”的(de)電力(li)投資與建設產業應當更好地(di)遵循(xun)新(xin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展理念、高質(zhi)量發(fa)(fa)(fa)展觀和新(xin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展格局的(de)總要求，全面建設清(qing)潔低碳、安全高效(xiao)的(de)能源(yuan)供應體系，為我國社會主(zhu)義現代化建設提供強有力(li)的(de)動力(li)保障。

“十三五”我國電力投資與建設發展的總體回顧

(一)“十三五”我國電力投資與建設取得主要成就

電(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)與建設規模降中有升。2016年至2020年1月到9月，全國電(dian)(dian)力工程(cheng)建設完(wan)成投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)分(fen)別(bie)達到8840億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、8239億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、8127億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、8295億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和5981億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)上年同期增(zeng)長(chang)3.1%、-6.8%、-1.4%、1.6%、26.08%，呈現出前(qian)三(san)年下降后兩年上升的態(tai)勢。其中，電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)分(fen)別(bie)達到3408億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、2900億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、2787億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、3283億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、3082億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)上年增(zeng)長(chang)-13.4%、-14.9%、-3.9%、71.51%（見表1）；電(dian)(dian)網投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)分(fen)別(bie)達到5431億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、5339億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、5340億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、5012億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、2899億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),比(bi)上年增(zeng)長(chang)17.2%、-1.7%、0%、-6.7%、-0.02%。

縱觀“十三五”期間(jian)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力投資與建設歷程，雖然電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)投資呈現逐年下降趨(qu)勢(shi)，但每年電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)投資一直遠高于電(dian)(dian)(dian)源投資。電(dian)(dian)(dian)源投資在(zai)(zai)2020年前(qian)九(jiu)個月之所以出現快速(su)增(zeng)長情況，是(shi)由于受到發改價(jia)格〔2019〕882號文(wen)的(de)影(ying)響，要求2018年前(qian)核準的(de)陸上風電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)必須趕(gan)在(zai)(zai)2020年底前(qian)完成并網(wang)，否則國家不再(zai)補貼，同時水電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)光伏發電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)投資也比上年同期有較(jiao)大(da)幅(fu)度增(zeng)長。

電(dian)(dian)源投(tou)資與(yu)建設結(jie)(jie)構日趨(qu)合(he)理。2016年(nian)至2020年(nian)，全(quan)國全(quan)口徑發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)分(fen)別為(wei)16.51億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、17.77千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、19.00億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、20.10億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、20.90億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)（截至2020年(nian)9月底），分(fen)別比上(shang)年(nian)增長(chang)8.2%、7.7%、6.5%、5.8%、5.9%（見(jian)表2和圖1）；每年(nian)新(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)分(fen)別為(wei)12143萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、13118萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、12785萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、10500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、7545萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)（2020年(nian)1-9月），其(qi)中，火電(dian)(dian)（燃煤(mei)與(yu)燃氣(qi)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)）新(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)分(fen)別為(wei)5048萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、4453萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、4380萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、4423萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、3183萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)（2020年(nian)1-9月），非(fei)化石能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)（包括水(shui)電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)、光伏等）新(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)分(fen)別為(wei)7095萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、9044萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、8647萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、6469萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、4362萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)（2020年(nian)1-9月）。總體而言，“十三五”期間(jian)我國電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需形(xing)勢總體相對(dui)寬松，化解煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)產能過剩效(xiao)果較(jiao)為(wei)明顯，電(dian)(dian)力結(jie)(jie)構綠(lv)色低碳(tan)化特征日益顯現。

電(dian)網投資與建設(she)(she)水平持續提升。2016年(nian)至(zhi)2019年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)交(jiao)流(liu)110千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伏及以上輸電(dian)線(xian)路(lu)長(chang)度和(he)變(bian)(bian)電(dian)設(she)(she)備容量分(fen)別(bie)達到56679千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)米和(he)34585萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伏安(an)(an)、58084千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)米和(he)32595萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伏安(an)(an)、56973千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)米和(he)31024萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伏安(an)(an)、57935千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)米和(he)31915萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伏安(an)(an)，2020年(nian)1至(zhi)9月全(quan)(quan)國(guo)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)220千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伏及以上輸電(dian)線(xian)路(lu)長(chang)度和(he)變(bian)(bian)電(dian)設(she)(she)備容量分(fen)別(bie)達到25450千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)米和(he)16202萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伏安(an)(an)，繼續保持平穩(wen)有序的(de)(de)發展態勢。“十三五”期間(jian)我(wo)國(guo)在特高壓領(ling)域投資與建設(she)(she)大(da)約(yue)是(shi)“十二五”期間(jian)的(de)(de)三倍，新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)投產特高壓交(jiao)流(liu)或直流(liu)線(xian)路(lu)分(fen)別(bie)達到3條(tiao)、7條(tiao)、2條(tiao)、4條(tiao)和(he)6條(tiao)，大(da)大(da)地提高了電(dian)網跨大(da)區(qu)電(dian)力(li)(li)優化配置和(he)清潔能(neng)源消納能(neng)力(li)(li)。另外(wai)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)小城鎮中心村電(dian)網改造全(quan)(quan)面(mian)完成(cheng)，平原地區(qu)機井通電(dian)實(shi)現全(quan)(quan)覆(fu)蓋，貧困村實(shi)現通動力(li)(li)電(dian)，電(dian)力(li)(li)普遍服(fu)務能(neng)力(li)(li)和(he)系統調峰能(neng)力(li)(li)全(quan)(quan)面(mian)增(zeng)(zeng)強。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力投資與建(jian)設(she)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)(zhong)有(you)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。“十三五(wu)”規劃的(de)前四年(nian)(nian)，我(wo)國主(zhu)要電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)決(jue)算單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)方面(mian)：燃煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)普遍存(cun)在(zai)小幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，燃氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)存(cun)在(zai)小幅(fu)(fu)(fu)波(bo)動，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)(zhong)有(you)降，陸上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和垃圾(ji)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)(zhong)有(you)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，海上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和秸桿(gan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)(zhong)有(you)降，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)降幅(fu)(fu)(fu)相對較大，光伏(fu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)降幅(fu)(fu)(fu)最為明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)；在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)決(jue)算單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)方面(mian)：輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線(xian)路單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)受材料價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格、工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)地形和導線(xian)截面(mian)等(deng)因(yin)(yin)素影(ying)響，呈(cheng)現(xian)(xian)(xian)小幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態勢；變電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)除(chu)750千伏(fu)等(deng)級(ji)呈(cheng)下降態勢外(wai)，其(qi)他等(deng)級(ji)變電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)因(yin)(yin)受不(bu)同電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)等(deng)級(ji)的(de)主(zhu)變、斷路器價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲而(er)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)一(yi)定程(cheng)度的(de)上(shang)漲；換流站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)竣(jun)工(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)2017年(nian)(nian)達(da)到(dao)歷史最高后(hou)，2018年(nian)(nian)呈(cheng)現(xian)(xian)(xian)出(chu)較大幅(fu)(fu)(fu)度下降，2019年(nian)(nian)又出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)小幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。總體來看，“十三五(wu)”期間，除(chu)光伏(fu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)較為明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)下降外(wai)，其(qi)他類(lei)型的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)變化不(bu)是(shi)很明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)，如何有(you)效降低電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)仍是(shi)值得深入探(tan)討的(de)“大文章”。

國(guo)際(ji)電(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)資(zi)與合作持續增(zeng)強。“十三五”規劃的(de)(de)前(qian)(qian)四年，我(wo)國(guo)主要(yao)電(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)(ye)實(shi)際(ji)對(dui)(dui)外完成投(tou)(tou)資(zi)77.85億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)、193億元(yuan)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)、57.9億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)、42.6億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同比(bi)分別增(zeng)長(chang)168.66%、147.91%、-70%、-26.4%。截止到(dao)2019年底，我(wo)國(guo)主要(yao)電(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)(ye)對(dui)(dui)外實(shi)際(ji)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)總額累計達到(dao)878.5億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，帶(dai)動了勞務、標準、技術、裝備的(de)(de)“走(zou)出去”。我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)(ye)對(dui)(dui)外投(tou)(tou)資(zi)主要(yao)領域涉及(ji)火電(dian)(dian)、水(shui)電(dian)(dian)、新能源、輸(shu)變電(dian)(dian)及(ji)礦產資(zi)源等(deng)(deng)領域。東南亞、南亞、歐(ou)洲、南美(mei)(mei)洲等(deng)(deng)“一帶(dai)一路”沿線國(guo)家是我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)(ye)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)的(de)(de)重點區域。國(guo)網、南網、三峽集團、中(zhong)廣核、國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)等(deng)(deng)電(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)對(dui)(dui)外投(tou)(tou)資(zi)排名(ming)相對(dui)(dui)靠前(qian)(qian)。投(tou)(tou)資(zi)方式以BOT等(deng)(deng)綠地投(tou)(tou)資(zi)占主導地位(wei)，并購、參股以及(ji)其他投(tou)(tou)資(zi)方式為境外投(tou)(tou)資(zi)的(de)(de)重要(yao)補充。

(二)“十三五”我國電力投資與建設特點及問題

通(tong)過上述分析(xi)，我(wo)國“十(shi)三五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建設大(da)體(ti)呈現以下(xia)主要特征：一是(shi)同“十(shi)二(er)五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)相比，“十(shi)三五”期(qi)間(jian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)一直高(gao)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)，并且(qie)兩者(zhe)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)差距(ju)有進(jin)一步拉大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨勢(shi)；二(er)是(shi)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)中(zhong)(zhong)，可再生(sheng)能源投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)占據主導地(di)位(wei)(wei)，傳統的(de)(de)(de)(de)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)比重逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)下(xia)降(jiang)，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)項目(mu)經過多年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)斷后在(zai)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)現重啟，非石化(hua)裝機占比逐年(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)高(gao)；三是(shi)伴隨著電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)斷進(jin)步，光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)單位(wei)(wei)造(zao)價呈下(xia)降(jiang)態勢(shi)，但受到原材(cai)料、人工價格上漲等因素的(de)(de)(de)(de)對沖，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網單位(wei)(wei)造(zao)價變化(hua)并不(bu)明顯(xian)，單位(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)度(du)成本仍相對較高(gao)；四是(shi)隨著“走出去(qu)”戰略推動和(he)中(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)經貿(mao)摩(mo)擦加(jia)劇(ju)，境外電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建設出現前增(zeng)后降(jiang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨勢(shi)。

總體來說，“十三五期(qi)”期(qi)間我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)力(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)與(yu)(yu)建設(she)取得舉世矚目(mu)的(de)(de)(de)成就，但也清楚認識到(dao)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)力(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)與(yu)(yu)建設(she)還存在不少問(wen)題(ti)：一(yi)是(shi)電(dian)網(wang)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)建設(she)以主干(gan)電(dian)網(wang)為主，配電(dian)網(wang)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)明顯滯后，電(dian)網(wang)發展的(de)(de)(de)不平衡(heng)矛盾較(jiao)為突(tu)出(chu)；二是(shi)節能減排壓力(li)仍然較(jiao)大(da)，截(jie)止到(dao)目(mu)前(qian)仍有2億多(duo)千(qian)瓦(wa)的(de)(de)(de)煤電(dian)裝機還沒實現超低(di)排放，淘汰落(luo)后產能仍任重(zhong)而(er)道遠(yuan)；三是(shi)新能源投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)與(yu)(yu)建設(she)受政策影響(xiang)較(jiao)大(da)，風電(dian)、光(guang)伏發電(dian)“搶裝潮(chao)”頻頻發生(sheng)，給正常的(de)(de)(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)與(yu)(yu)建設(she)活(huo)動帶來較(jiao)大(da)不確(que)定性；四是(shi)電(dian)力(li)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際化程度(du)仍然較(jiao)低(di)，特別是(shi)受中(zhong)美貿(mao)易(yi)戰和新冠疫情引(yin)起(qi)的(de)(de)(de)貿(mao)易(yi)保護主義的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)新抬頭，電(dian)力(li)“走出(chu)去”難度(du)不斷加大(da)，電(dian)力(li)境外投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)與(yu)(yu)建設(she)的(de)(de)(de)風險明顯增大(da)。

“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的發展目標及展望

(一)“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的發展目標

遵循新發(fa)(fa)展理念、新發(fa)(fa)展格局和高質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)(fa)展觀(guan)，認(ren)真(zhen)貫徹習總書記(ji)提(ti)出“四個革命、一個合(he)作”的重(zhong)大能源戰(zhan)略思想，按照全國一盤棋的要求，堅定(ding)走好綠(lv)色(se)低碳、清(qing)潔高效的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)轉型之路，加快建立健全電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)投資治理體(ti)系(xi)、科學選(xuan)擇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)投資方向、持續優化(hua)(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)投資結(jie)構、壯大有效電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)投資規模、切(qie)實推動電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)投資轉型升(sheng)級，不斷提(ti)升(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)技術現(xian)(xian)代(dai)化(hua)(hua)水平(ping)，全力(li)(li)(li)打造(zao)安全高效電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供應保障體(ti)系(xi)，全方位(wei)促進(jin)“電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)產業(ye)基礎高級化(hua)(hua)、產業(ye)鏈(lian)現(xian)(xian)代(dai)化(hua)(hua)水平(ping)明顯(xian)提(ti)高”，最終實現(xian)(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)工業(ye)高質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)(fa)展，為(wei)在本世紀中葉把(ba)我國建設成(cheng)為(wei)富強民主文明和諧美(mei)麗的社會主義(yi)現(xian)(xian)代(dai)化(hua)(hua)強國目(mu)標提(ti)供堅實的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)支撐和動力(li)(li)(li)保障。

(二)“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的主要趨勢

1.“雙循環”發展格局將成為我(wo)國電(dian)力(li)投資與建(jian)設的根本方向。電(dian)力(li)是(shi)形成國內(nei)大消費(fei)市場的關鍵(jian)一環。“十四(si)五”期間(jian)，國內(nei)最(zui)終消費(fei)將成為我(wo)國經濟增長的“壓艙石”，而以電(dian)力(li)替代和(he)節(jie)能(neng)降耗為核心的電(dian)力(li)投資與建(jian)設將是(shi)促進消費(fei)升級、實(shi)現“六(liu)保”和(he)“六(liu)穩(wen)”的重要抓手。

2.高(gao)(gao)質量(liang)發展將成為我國電力投(tou)資(zi)與(yu)建(jian)設的(de)(de)內(nei)(nei)在要求。綠(lv)色(se)（低(di)(di)碳）、安(an)全(quan)、高(gao)(gao)效(xiao)(xiao)、經(jing)濟仍將是(shi)(shi)“十四(si)五”電力投(tou)資(zi)與(yu)建(jian)設的(de)(de)重(zhong)要內(nei)(nei)涵(han)和本質要求，綠(lv)色(se)（低(di)(di)碳）是(shi)(shi)方(fang)向、安(an)全(quan)是(shi)(shi)保證、高(gao)(gao)效(xiao)(xiao)是(shi)(shi)根本、經(jing)濟是(shi)(shi)要求，這四(si)者(zhe)之間(jian)相(xiang)互(hu)相(xiang)承(cheng)，有機(ji)統一，不能偏(pian)重(zhong)偏(pian)廢。

3.多層次電(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場將(jiang)成為我國(guo)電(dian)力(li)(li)投資與建設(she)的(de)現實需要。“十四五”期(qi)間我國(guo)將(jiang)全面建成國(guo)家、省、市(shi)等多層次電(dian)力(li)(li)交易中心(xin)，中長期(qi)期(qi)貨(huo)、現貨(huo)、容量、碳(tan)交易以及輔助服務等多維度電(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場有機運行，電(dian)力(li)(li)交易的(de)便利(li)化(hua)有利(li)于推動電(dian)力(li)(li)投資與建設(she)的(de)可持續發展。

4.數學(xue)化(hua)轉型(xing)將成(cheng)為我(wo)(wo)國(guo)電力(li)投(tou)資與(yu)(yu)建設的關(guan)鍵力(li)量。能(neng)源(yuan)革命(ming)與(yu)(yu)數字革命(ming)的相互(hu)融合(he)是大勢所趨。“十四(si)五(wu)”期間，加速對傳(chuan)統電力(li)的數字化(hua)改造和(he)投(tou)資與(yu)(yu)建設，將成(cheng)為推動電力(li)轉型(xing)和(he)電力(li)管理變革的必(bi)由之(zhi)路，使(shi)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)電力(li)發展更加柔性化(hua)、互(hu)聯化(hua)、高(gao)端化(hua)和(he)高(gao)效化(hua)。

5.高水平對外開放與(yu)(yu)合(he)作將成(cheng)為我國(guo)(guo)電(dian)力投資與(yu)(yu)建設的鮮(xian)明特性。遵循(xun)“共(gong)商、共(gong)建、共(gong)享”的理(li)念(nian)，形成(cheng)更大范圍、更寬領域、更深層次的電(dian)力開放新格局(ju)，通過“引進來”和“走出去”雙向(xiang)驅動，不(bu)斷開拓國(guo)(guo)際電(dian)力合(he)作共(gong)贏(ying)的新局(ju)面(mian)。

(三)“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的發展展望

1.重視數(shu)字技術應(ying)用，走智慧化(hua)電(dian)力發展(zhan)之路。

“新基(ji)建”催生(sheng)出(chu)新電(dian)(dian)力(li)。新冠疫情給傳統(tong)行(xing)(xing)業一記重拳的同(tong)時(shi)，也讓(rang)以數字(zi)經濟為代(dai)表(biao)的新經濟迎來高(gao)光時(shi)刻(ke)。“十四五”期間，我國將(jiang)會以更大(da)(da)的勇氣推(tui)行(xing)(xing)“云(yun)大(da)(da)物(wu)聯(lian)智(zhi)鏈”等(deng)現代(dai)信息技術在電(dian)(dian)力(li)領域更大(da)(da)規(gui)模、更大(da)(da)范圍(wei)地(di)(di)應(ying)用，加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)推(tui)進(jin)智(zhi)慧電(dian)(dian)（工(gong)）廠、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)運(yun)維、智(zhi)慧工(gong)地(di)(di)、電(dian)(dian)力(li)服務云(yun)平(ping)(ping)臺等(deng)建設，全(quan)面(mian)提升我國電(dian)(dian)力(li)的數字(zi)化(hua)、網(wang)絡化(hua)和(he)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)水平(ping)(ping)，統(tong)籌推(tui)進(jin)與“電(dian)(dian)、氣、熱、信”等(deng)多網(wang)的橫(heng)向緊密耦合(he)、同(tong)“源(yuan)、網(wang)、荷、儲”等(deng)各環(huan)節(jie)的縱向高(gao)效(xiao)深度融合(he)，實現能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)整個系(xi)(xi)統(tong)各個環(huan)節(jie)的萬物(wu)互聯(lian)、人機(ji)交(jiao)互，建立更加(jia)(jia)可(ke)靠、安(an)全(quan)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)、高(gao)效(xiao)的全(quan)球(qiu)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)互聯(lian)網(wang)，并借助共享(xiang)數據為用戶、電(dian)(dian)網(wang)、發電(dian)(dian)、供應(ying)商(shang)和(he)政府等(deng)提供點對點、端(duan)對端(duan)的服務，進(jin)一步提高(gao)電(dian)(dian)力(li)綜合(he)服務水平(ping)(ping)和(he)檔(dang)次(ci)，全(quan)方位(wei)增強電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)總體運(yun)行(xing)(xing)效(xiao)率。

2.努力打造清潔電(dian)力，走(zou)低(di)碳(tan)化電(dian)力發展之路。

習總書記提(ti)出的(de)“碳(tan)(tan)峰值、碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)和”兩個(ge)硬性(xing)目標，既(ji)是(shi)我國對全球(qiu)的(de)莊(zhuang)嚴承諾(nuo)，也(ye)是(shi)國人必須完成的(de)政治任務。這需要電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)“十四五(wu)”期間加(jia)(jia)速從(cong)化石(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)向零(ling)碳(tan)(tan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)轉(zhuan)變(bian)：一是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)生(sheng)產側進一步(bu)提(ti)升水能(neng)、核能(neng)、光伏、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、生(sheng)物質(zhi)等幾(ji)乎不產生(sheng)二(er)(er)氧化碳(tan)(tan)的(de)裝(zhuang)機比(bi)重，逐步(bu)降(jiang)(jiang)低石(shi)油、煤炭(tan)、天(tian)然(ran)氣等產生(sheng)中(zhong)(zhong)高二(er)(er)氧化碳(tan)(tan)的(de)裝(zhuang)機比(bi)例，并加(jia)(jia)大現有(you)石(shi)化電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站的(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)改造和落后電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)產能(neng)的(de)淘汰力(li)(li)度，最大限度地(di)降(jiang)(jiang)低每度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)燃料消耗量(liang)；二(er)(er)是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消費側全方位開(kai)展節(jie)能(neng)降(jiang)(jiang)耗工(gong)作，盡量(liang)避免跑冒滴漏電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)現象發(fa)生(sheng)，因為節(jie)能(neng)是(shi)最大的(de)“環保”方式，降(jiang)(jiang)耗是(shi)最有(you)效的(de)“減排”手段；三是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)輸送側加(jia)(jia)大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)改造、加(jia)(jia)快超(chao)導等新輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)研發(fa)應用(yong)，盡可能(neng)地(di)降(jiang)(jiang)低“輸變(bian)配用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”各環節(jie)的(de)線(xian)損率(lv)；四是(shi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)創新側加(jia)(jia)緊“碳(tan)(tan)捕(bu)捉(zhuo)和封存”等技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)研發(fa)，使該技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)更加(jia)(jia)成熟并具(ju)備經(jing)濟(ji)合理性(xing)、技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)安全性(xing)和市場推廣性(xing)。

3.加(jia)快電力體制改革，走市場化電力發展之路(lu)。

打破電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)“統購統銷”、實(shi)(shi)現市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)系是(shi)(shi)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)“十(shi)四(si)五”深化(hua)改革(ge)必須要(yao)(yao)爬過(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)“坡”和邁過(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)“坎”，終(zhong)(zhong)極目標就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)要(yao)(yao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)市(shi)場(chang)在(zai)(zai)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)資源配(pei)置(zhi)中決(jue)定性作(zuo)用(yong)，建(jian)立具有(you)(you)中國特色(se)的(de)(de)、完善的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)體(ti)系：一(yi)是(shi)(shi)加(jia)(jia)大增量配(pei)電(dian)試(shi)點，完善電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)現貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)體(ti)系，加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)放(fang)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)用(yong)電(dian)計劃，讓更多(duo)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)用(yong)戶(hu)在(zai)(zai)更大范圍內直接到(dao)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)一(yi)級市(shi)場(chang)參(can)與交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)，真(zhen)正建(jian)立一(yi)個(ge)主體(ti)多(duo)元(yuan)、充分競爭(zheng)、有(you)(you)效(xiao)管理(li)的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)現貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)市(shi)場(chang)；二是(shi)(shi)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)構建(jian)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)期貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)機制(zhi)(zhi)，合(he)理(li)搭建(jian)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)構架(jia)，豐(feng)富優(you)化(hua)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)品種，充分發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)期貨(huo)在(zai)(zai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)現價格、對沖風險的(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)，最(zui)終(zhong)(zhong)建(jian)立公開透明、統一(yi)規(gui)范的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)期貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)市(shi)場(chang)，這亦(yi)是(shi)(shi)成(cheng)熟電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)重要(yao)(yao)組成(cheng)部分；三(san)是(shi)(shi)切實(shi)(shi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)政府指(zhi)導監(jian)督作(zuo)用(yong)，明確(que)政府職(zhi)能部門在(zai)(zai)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)監(jian)管角色(se)定位，切實(shi)(shi)強化(hua)市(shi)場(chang)主體(ti)準(zhun)入、交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)規(gui)則、交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)合(he)同、交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)(yi)價格的(de)(de)事(shi)前事(shi)中事(shi)后(hou)監(jian)管；四(si)是(shi)(shi)充分發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)社會(hui)中介組織作(zuo)用(yong)，加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)建(jian)立相應的(de)(de)第三(san)方(fang)監(jian)管機制(zhi)(zhi)、違約懲戒(jie)機制(zhi)(zhi)和信用(yong)評估(gu)機制(zhi)(zhi)等配(pei)套機制(zhi)(zhi)。

4.賦能電力新型業態，走多(duo)元化電力發展之路。

“十(shi)四(si)五”期間，我國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)命電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型將(jiang)(jiang)走向(xiang)前臺，這意味著傳(chuan)統煤電(dian)受(shou)淘(tao)汰落(luo)后產業(ye)(ye)力(li)(li)(li)度加(jia)大(da)的(de)影響，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)會受(shou)到(dao)(dao)較大(da)制(zhi)約(yue)，發(fa)電(dian)占比將(jiang)(jiang)進一(yi)(yi)步(bu)降低；水電(dian)因在電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)調峰中(zhong)作(zuo)用(yong)更加(jia)突(tu)出，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)開發(fa)尤其是抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)站投(tou)資(zi)(zi)將(jiang)(jiang)穩(wen)步(bu)上(shang)升；核電(dian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)建設(she)節奏有(you)(you)望趨于(yu)穩(wen)定，發(fa)電(dian)占比得到(dao)(dao)相應提升；風光(guang)等新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)隨著平價上(shang)網時代(dai)全(quan)面(mian)來臨，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)有(you)(you)望贏來爆發(fa)性(xing)(xing)增長，發(fa)電(dian)占比將(jiang)(jiang)實現較大(da)幅度提高。與此同時，氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)、燃(ran)料(liao)電(dian)池、化(hua)學(xue)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)等新型能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)以(yi)及以(yi)充電(dian)樁(zhuang)為代(dai)表的(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)替代(dai)業(ye)(ye)務將(jiang)(jiang)迎(ying)來歷史性(xing)(xing)突(tu)破，成為電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建設(she)又一(yi)(yi)片“新沃土”，還有(you)(you)匯集綠色(se)、高效、智慧(hui)等于(yu)一(yi)(yi)體的(de)綜合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統將(jiang)(jiang)成為能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)重要方向(xiang)。“十(shi)四(si)五”期間我國的(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)結構(gou)將(jiang)(jiang)逐步(bu)由傳(chuan)統化(hua)石燃(ran)料(liao)為主電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)向(xiang)清潔低碳(tan)的(de)可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變，電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)業(ye)(ye)態更加(jia)絢麗多彩。

5.推進國際電(dian)力合作，走國際化電(dian)力發展之路。

雖(sui)然后疫情時代國際貿易保護主義有重新抬頭的傾向，但電力(li)國際化發展仍處(chu)于重要(yao)戰略機遇期。

一(yi)是秉(bing)持共商、共建、共享的(de)(de)原(yuan)則，加大(da)“一(yi)帶(dai)一(yi)路(lu)”沿(yan)線國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)投資(zi)布局力(li)(li)度(du)，帶(dai)動(dong)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)力(li)(li)技術(shu)、裝備(bei)、工(gong)程、標準(zhun)和運維等(deng)全產業鏈“走出去”，切實(shi)提升我國(guo)(guo)(guo)在(zai)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際電(dian)力(li)(li)市場上的(de)(de)話語權。

二是積極推動(dong)我(wo)國與周邊國家電網(wang)的互聯互通，不斷壯(zhuang)大國際電力交易(yi)規模(mo)，構建更加緊密的跨區域電力合作。

三是發(fa)揮我(wo)國業(ye)已(yi)形成世界(jie)上(shang)最全(quan)電(dian)(dian)工裝備產品系(xi)列的(de)優(you)勢，通過(guo)到境外投資建廠(chang)和(he)興(xing)建電(dian)(dian)力產業(ye)園(yuan)等方式，進一步鞏固我(wo)國在國際電(dian)(dian)工產業(ye)鏈上(shang)的(de)地(di)位。

四(si)是發揮我國強(qiang)大(da)電力基建能力，為海外業主提供一攬子和個性化的(de)解決方案，提升我國在全球電力建設的(de)主力軍(jun)地位。

一(yi)言以蔽之，“十四五”期(qi)間，我國將(jiang)會更(geng)加(jia)(jia)主動(dong)融(rong)入到世界電(dian)力分工體系，加(jia)(jia)大與(yu)全球尤(you)其(qi)是周邊(bian)國家的(de)電(dian)力交流(liu)與(yu)合作，更(geng)好服務于國家全球戰略目(mu)標的(de)順利實現。