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2018年(nian)(nian)，我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)(xing)業歷(li)經(jing)國家經(jing)濟增(zeng)速調整(zheng)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)改革(ge)加速、中美貿易(yi)摩(mo)擦等一系列(lie)內(nei)外部形勢變化的(de)考驗，全國用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)實現快(kuai)速增(zeng)長，能源(yuan)結構綠(lv)色轉型(xing)實現較快(kuai)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，市場化電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)交易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)實現新突破(po)。其中，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)體制改革(ge)為我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)(xing)業實現高質量(liang)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)提(ti)供(gong)了(le)持續動能。本文(wen)在對我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)(xing)業2018年(nian)(nian)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)情況進(jin)行(xing)(xing)梳(shu)理(li)的(de)基礎上，重點分析(xi)我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)(xing)業發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)中存在的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)問題，著重對我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)改革(ge)未(wei)來發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)趨(qu)勢和2019年(nian)(nian)的(de)落地預期進(jin)行(xing)(xing)探討分析(xi)。

2018年我國電力行業發展整體情況

2018年(nian)我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行業呈(cheng)現整(zheng)體較快發展(zhan)(zhan)態勢(shi)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需總(zong)體平衡，電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)結構(gou)綠色轉型加快，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力改革(ge)深(shen)入推進(jin)，國際能源(yuan)合(he)作順(shun)利開展(zhan)(zhan)。

一是全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需總體(ti)平衡(heng)，高技術制造業(ye)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)(ti)代電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)貢獻突(tu)出(chu)。根據中(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯發布(bu)的《2018年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力工業(ye)統計快報》，去年(nian)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為68449億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.5%，達到2012年(nian)以(yi)來最高增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速。其(qi)中(zhong)，第(di)二產業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)4.72萬億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速同(tong)為2012年(nian)以(yi)來最高水(shui)平。其(qi)中(zhong)，高技術及裝(zhuang)備制造業(ye)、戰略性新(xin)興產業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)9.5%，正在(zai)引領形(xing)成電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力消(xiao)費新(xin)動能(neng)(neng)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)(ti)代（以(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)代煤、以(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)代油等）對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力消(xiao)費增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻率突(tu)出(chu)，去年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)開展電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)(ti)代新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)約為1550億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，拉動全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)近2.4個百分點。

二是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)清潔(jie)化(hua)步伐(fa)加快，棄(qi)風棄(qi)光問題得(de)到持(chi)續改(gai)善。去年(nian)，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)及(ji)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規(gui)模均(jun)居世界首位。全口徑裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量19.0億千瓦,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長6.5%。其(qi)中，非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量7.7億千瓦，占總(zong)(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量的比(bi)(bi)重達到40.8%,全國(guo)(guo)新增(zeng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量1.2億千瓦，新增(zeng)非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)占新增(zeng)總(zong)(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)的73.0%。在各(ge)級政府和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業等共同(tong)努力下，棄(qi)風棄(qi)光問題持(chi)續得(de)到改(gai)善。去年(nian)全國(guo)(guo)并網太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量分(fen)別為1775億、3660億千瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)別增(zeng)長50.8%、20.2%。全國(guo)(guo)平均(jun)棄(qi)風率為7%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)5個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)；全國(guo)(guo)平均(jun)棄(qi)光率為3%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)2.8個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。

三(san)(san)是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)體制(zhi)(zhi)改(gai)革(ge)持續(xu)(xu)深入(ru)推進(jin)(jin)，增(zeng)量配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)交(jiao)易領域(yu)等取得顯著進(jin)(jin)展(zhan)。去年(nian)，國家發改(gai)委(wei)、國家能(neng)源局(ju)確(que)定(ding)(ding)了第三(san)(san)批增(zeng)量配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業務改(gai)革(ge)試(shi)點(dian)125個(ge)項(xiang)目，第四批增(zeng)量配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業務改(gai)革(ge)試(shi)點(dian)正在申(shen)報之(zhi)中(zhong)(zhong)。南方能(neng)監局(ju)會同廣(guang)東(dong)(dong)省(sheng)經(jing)信委(wei)、廣(guang)東(dong)(dong)省(sheng)發改(gai)委(wei)聯合公布我(wo)國首個(ge)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易規則，南方(以廣(guang)東(dong)(dong)起步)及甘肅、山西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)開(kai)始試(shi)運行。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)化(hua)交(jiao)易進(jin)(jin)一步完(wan)善交(jiao)易機制(zhi)(zhi)，放(fang)開(kai)煤炭、鋼鐵、有色、建材等4個(ge)行業電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)用戶發用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)計劃，全電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量參與交(jiao)易，全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量（含發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)權交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量、不(bu)含抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)低谷抽(chou)水交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量等特殊交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量）合計為20654億千(qian)瓦時，同比增(zeng)長26.5%。推進(jin)(jin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)交(jiao)易機構規范化(hua)建設，將對北(bei)京電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)交(jiao)易中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)、廣(guang)州電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)交(jiao)易中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)和各省(sheng)區(qu)市(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)交(jiao)易中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)進(jin)(jin)行股(gu)份制(zhi)(zhi)改(gai)造，非電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網企業資本股(gu)比應不(bu)低于(yu)20%，鼓勵非電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網企業資本占股(gu)50%左右。輸(shu)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)改(gai)革(ge)持續(xu)(xu)深入(ru)推進(jin)(jin)，陸續(xu)(xu)核定(ding)(ding)了華(hua)北(bei)、東(dong)(dong)北(bei)、華(hua)東(dong)(dong)、華(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)、西(xi)北(bei)5大區(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網首個(ge)監管周期的兩(liang)部制(zhi)(zhi)輸(shu)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)水平，以及24條(tiao)跨省(sheng)跨區(qu)專(zhuan)項(xiang)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)工程輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)格(ge)。本輪改(gai)革(ge)在“三(san)(san)放(fang)開(kai)、一獨立、三(san)(san)加強”的框架(jia)，持續(xu)(xu)推進(jin)(jin)、不(bu)斷深化(hua)，逐步進(jin)(jin)入(ru)深水區(qu)、攻堅期。

四是(shi)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)合(he)作持(chi)續蓬勃發展(zhan)，“一(yi)帶一(yi)路(lu)”仍是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)企業(ye)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)化(hua)戰略重點區域(yu)。能源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)領域(yu)是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)企業(ye)“走出(chu)去”的重要陣(zhen)地(di)，去年，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)企業(ye)始終把服務(wu)(wu)(wu)“一(yi)帶一(yi)路(lu)”建設(she)(she)作為國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)化(hua)發展(zhan)的核心，聚焦主(zhu)業(ye)發揮優勢(shi)，取得一(yi)系(xi)列突破。2018年，中(zhong)(zhong)廣核集團帶動核電(dian)(dian)產業(ye)鏈(lian)“走出(chu)去”，海(hai)外(wai)資(zi)產規(gui)模達(da)到1200億(yi)元，海(hai)外(wai)收(shou)(shou)入占(zhan)比(bi)超過(guo)20%，海(hai)外(wai)新能源(yuan)(yuan)控股裝機1338萬千瓦。華電(dian)(dian)集團不斷(duan)加(jia)(jia)快海(hai)外(wai)發展(zhan)步伐(fa)，實現國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)入73.97億(yi)元、利(li)潤(run)總額9億(yi)元，同比(bi)分(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)長159%、331%，國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)(wu)收(shou)(shou)入和(he)利(li)潤(run)占(zhan)比(bi)分(fen)別(bie)達(da)3.4%、10.9%。國(guo)(guo)家電(dian)(dian)網公(gong)司(si)完成巴(ba)西CPFL新能源(yuan)(yuan)公(gong)司(si)要約收(shou)(shou)購(gou)，埃塞俄比(bi)亞(ya)～肯尼(ni)亞(ya)直流輸電(dian)(dian)工程、波蘭科(ke)杰尼(ni)采輸變電(dian)(dian)EPC項目(mu)竣工投(tou)產，巴(ba)基斯坦(tan)默拉直流輸電(dian)(dian)項目(mu)進(jin)入全面(mian)建設(she)(she)階段，與(yu)葡萄牙國(guo)(guo)家能源(yuan)(yuan)網公(gong)司(si)簽(qian)署合(he)作框架協議。南(nan)方電(dian)(dian)網公(gong)司(si)與(yu)老撾(zhua)簽(qian)署《關(guan)于開(kai)發建設(she)(she)老撾(zhua)國(guo)(guo)家輸電(dian)(dian)網可行(xing)性研究諒解(jie)備忘錄》，成功收(shou)(shou)購(gou)馬(ma)來西亞(ya)獨(du)立發電(dian)(dian)商(shang)埃德拉公(gong)司(si)37%股權(quan)(quan)，成功收(shou)(shou)購(gou)加(jia)(jia)拿大資(zi)產管理公(gong)司(si)BIP持(chi)有的ETC公(gong)司(si)約27.8%股權(quan)(quan)。

我國電力行業發展中存在的主要問題

在取(qu)得較好成績的同(tong)時，我國電力(li)行業還存(cun)在以下問題亟待解決：

一(yi)是受(shou)電煤(mei)采購(gou)(gou)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)居高不(bu)(bu)下(xia)、低碳(tan)環(huan)保(bao)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)加大等多(duo)(duo)重因(yin)素影響(xiang)，火(huo)電企(qi)業(ye)(ye)經營(ying)(ying)面(mian)(mian)(mian)臨較(jiao)大壓(ya)(ya)力。2018年(nian)(nian)，反(fan)映(ying)電煤(mei)采購(gou)(gou)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)CECI5500大卡綜(zong)合價(jia)波(bo)動區間為571-635元/噸(dun)，各期(qi)價(jia)格均超(chao)過(guo)國(guo)家發(fa)展改革委等《關于印發(fa)平抑煤(mei)炭市(shi)場(chang)價(jia)格異常(chang)波(bo)動的(de)(de)(de)(de)備(bei)忘錄的(de)(de)(de)(de)通知》（發(fa)改運(yun)行〔2016〕2808號）規定的(de)(de)(de)(de)綠色區間（價(jia)格正常(chang)）上限(xian)，國(guo)內(nei)煤(mei)電企(qi)業(ye)(ye)采購(gou)(gou)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)居高不(bu)(bu)下(xia)。雖然(ran)2017年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)火(huo)電標(biao)桿電價(jia)平均上調近1分/千(qian)瓦時，在一(yi)定程(cheng)度上緩解(jie)了(le)煤(mei)價(jia)高企(qi)對煤(mei)電企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)利影響(xiang)，但并未從根本(ben)(ben)上扭轉火(huo)電企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)經營(ying)(ying)困難局面(mian)(mian)(mian)，2018年(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)火(huo)電企(qi)業(ye)(ye)虧損面(mian)(mian)(mian)仍近50%。《中(zhong)華(hua)人(ren)民共(gong)和(he)(he)國(guo)環(huan)境保(bao)護稅法》于2018年(nian)(nian)1月1日(ri)實施(shi)，地(di)方環(huan)保(bao)稅應征稅額(e)可提(ti)高到國(guo)家標(biao)準的(de)(de)(de)(de)1-10倍(bei)。多(duo)(duo)個省份推(tui)出(chu)了(le)嚴(yan)于國(guo)家要(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大氣(qi)污(wu)染物(wu)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)標(biao)準，部(bu)分地(di)區增加煙(yan)羽治理、煤(mei)場(chang)全(quan)(quan)封(feng)閉等新要(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)。火(huo)力發(fa)電行業(ye)(ye)是國(guo)家實施(shi)排(pai)(pai)污(wu)許可證管理的(de)(de)(de)(de)首批(pi)行業(ye)(ye)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)權交易體系(xi)已正式啟動，火(huo)電企(qi)業(ye)(ye)面(mian)(mian)(mian)臨嚴(yan)峻的(de)(de)(de)(de)環(huan)保(bao)改造、低碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)和(he)(he)環(huan)保(bao)管理等多(duo)(duo)重壓(ya)(ya)力。

二是(shi)我國(guo)生(sheng)態(tai)和(he)環保(bao)約束持(chi)續(xu)趨緊，電(dian)(dian)力結構(gou)清(qing)潔(jie)(jie)(jie)化(hua)調(diao)整步伐需要(yao)(yao)(yao)進一(yi)(yi)步加(jia)快。黨的(de)(de)十九大(da)報(bao)告提出要(yao)(yao)(yao)推(tui)進綠色發(fa)展(zhan)，著(zhu)重解決環境(jing)突出問(wen)題(ti)，加(jia)快調(diao)整能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)結構(gou)，增加(jia)清(qing)潔(jie)(jie)(jie)電(dian)(dian)力供應。2019年(nian)全國(guo)兩(liang)會再次(ci)提出要(yao)(yao)(yao)持(chi)續(xu)推(tui)進污(wu)染防(fang)治，打贏藍(lan)天保(bao)衛戰。根(gen)據我國(guo)在巴(ba)黎(li)協定(ding)的(de)(de)承諾，到2020年(nian)，中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)占(zhan)一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費比重達到15%，2030年(nian)達到20%。低碳(tan)環保(bao)和(he)清(qing)潔(jie)(jie)(jie)發(fa)展(zhan)成(cheng)為(wei)我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力行業發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)硬(ying)約束條件，一(yi)(yi)方面在電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)結構(gou)優(you)化(hua)的(de)(de)過程中(zhong)需要(yao)(yao)(yao)繼(ji)續(xu)優(you)先布(bu)局清(qing)潔(jie)(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)，優(you)化(hua)調(diao)整開發(fa)布(bu)局，按(an)(an)照集中(zhong)開發(fa)與分散開發(fa)并舉、就近消(xiao)納(na)為(wei)主的(de)(de)原則，統籌開發(fa)與市場消(xiao)納(na)，有序(xu)開發(fa)風電(dian)(dian)光電(dian)(dian)。另一(yi)(yi)方面加(jia)快煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)高(gao)效(xiao)清(qing)潔(jie)(jie)(jie)化(hua)利用，按(an)(an)照國(guo)家化(hua)解防(fang)范煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)產能(neng)(neng)風險(xian)的(de)(de)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求，嚴控煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)展(zhan)規模，大(da)力推(tui)動煤(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)清(qing)潔(jie)(jie)(jie)低碳(tan)轉型升(sheng)級(ji)。第三，加(jia)快電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代也是(shi)優(you)化(hua)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)結構(gou)的(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)(yao)舉措。研究表明，我國(guo)大(da)量的(de)(de)散燒煤(mei)(mei)(mei)和(he)原油消(xiao)費是(shi)造(zao)成(cheng)霧霾的(de)(de)主要(yao)(yao)(yao)因素(su)之一(yi)(yi)。我國(guo)每年(nian)散燒煤(mei)(mei)(mei)消(xiao)費主要(yao)(yao)(yao)應用于采暖小鍋爐、工業小鍋爐、農村(cun)的(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)些生(sheng)產生(sheng)活領(ling)域(yu)，大(da)概在7億~8億噸的(de)(de)水平(ping)，占(zhan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭消(xiao)費總量的(de)(de)20%，與美(mei)國(guo)、歐盟散燒煤(mei)(mei)(mei)的(de)(de)水平(ping)相比還存在較大(da)差距。

三(san)(san)是電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)發展面臨的(de)(de)外部環境日(ri)益復雜，在(zai)清潔(jie)能源消納和保(bao)障大(da)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)安全(quan)方面還(huan)(huan)存在(zai)發展不(bu)充分、不(bu)平(ping)衡問(wen)題。一方面電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)配置(zhi)資源能力與清潔(jie)能源大(da)規(gui)模(mo)快速發展還(huan)(huan)不(bu)適應。當(dang)前我國(guo)“三(san)(san)棄(qi)(qi)”問(wen)題仍(reng)然比較(jiao)突出，棄(qi)(qi)風棄(qi)(qi)光主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)集中(zhong)在(zai)西北(bei)和東北(bei)，棄(qi)(qi)水(shui)集中(zhong)在(zai)西南。而電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)跨區(qu)輸送能力不(bu)足是制約清潔(jie)能源消納的(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)原因之一，如(ru)在(zai)“三(san)(san)北(bei)”地(di)區(qu)，新能源裝機達到1.7億千瓦(wa)，但跨區(qu)外送能力只(zhi)有4200萬千瓦(wa)，而且主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)承擔煤(mei)電(dian)基地(di)外送任務，跨省跨區(qu)輸電(dian)通(tong)道的(de)(de)不(bu)足嚴重限制了(le)清潔(jie)能源在(zai)更大(da)范圍的(de)(de)消納。同(tong)時(shi)，我國(guo)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)仍(reng)存在(zai)較(jiao)大(da)的(de)(de)安全(quan)風險，需要(yao)(yao)建(jian)設(she)堅(jian)強智能電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)，提升電(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)整體安全(quan)水(shui)平(ping)。

四是電(dian)力(li)改革(ge)和(he)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)建(jian)(jian)設逐步進(jin)(jin)入(ru)(ru)攻堅克難(nan)(nan)(nan)的(de)深水區(qu)，電(dian)力(li)體(ti)(ti)制改革(ge)推(tui)進(jin)(jin)面臨更加(jia)復雜的(de)形(xing)勢(shi)。具(ju)體(ti)(ti)表(biao)現(xian)在(zai)：一(yi)(yi)是各(ge)地具(ju)體(ti)(ti)落地政策(ce)各(ge)異導致多(duo)方協(xie)調(diao)難(nan)(nan)(nan)度(du)加(jia)大。各(ge)類試點(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)具(ju)體(ti)(ti)落實過程中，中央各(ge)部門之(zhi)間(jian)、中央與(yu)(yu)地方之(zhi)間(jian)、政府與(yu)(yu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)之(zhi)間(jian)、電(dian)力(li)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)與(yu)(yu)社會之(zhi)間(jian)協(xie)調(diao)難(nan)(nan)(nan)度(du)大，造成市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)認識不一(yi)(yi)致、市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)規(gui)則不規(gui)范，市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)準(zhun)入(ru)(ru)標(biao)準(zhun)各(ge)異等難(nan)(nan)(nan)題。二是跨(kua)省區(qu)交易仍(reng)存在(zai)壁(bi)壘。市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)交易體(ti)(ti)系(xi)不健全(quan)、品種不完善、信息不對(dui)稱，制約清潔能源跨(kua)區(qu)交易與(yu)(yu)消納(na)規(gui)模(mo)，難(nan)(nan)(nan)以體(ti)(ti)現(xian)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)對(dui)資源配(pei)(pei)置的(de)優勢(shi)。三是市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)的(de)電(dian)價傳導機制有(you)待建(jian)(jian)立(li)。當前(qian)電(dian)力(li)上(shang)游至(zhi)電(dian)力(li)各(ge)產業(ye)(ye)鏈乃至(zhi)用戶側價格仍(reng)以計(ji)劃調(diao)控為主(zhu)導，需(xu)要(yao)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步發(fa)揮市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)引導電(dian)價的(de)作用。四是支撐增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)配(pei)(pei)電(dian)試點(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)相(xiang)關政策(ce)規(gui)范和(he)規(gui)劃需(xu)要(yao)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步完善，適應增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)配(pei)(pei)電(dian)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)發(fa)展的(de)標(biao)準(zhun)管理體(ti)(ti)系(xi)尚未建(jian)(jian)立(li)。配(pei)(pei)電(dian)存量(liang)(liang)與(yu)(yu)增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)的(de)區(qu)域劃分、投資效益(yi)、并網(wang)標(biao)準(zhun)、運營模(mo)式等問(wen)題，需(xu)要(yao)盡快出臺操(cao)作細則，制定增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)配(pei)(pei)電(dian)試點(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)建(jian)(jian)設、安全(quan)、接入(ru)(ru)等方面的(de)行業(ye)(ye)標(biao)準(zhun)保障試點(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)全(quan)面推(tui)進(jin)(jin)。

我國電力體制改革未來發展趨勢分析

電(dian)力體制改革(ge)在我國電(dian)力行業發展中(zhong)具有舉足輕重的(de)作用(yong)，面向未來(lai)，電(dian)力改革(ge)面臨(lin)著更(geng)加(jia)錯綜復雜(za)的(de)形勢，總體來(lai)看，體現在以下四個方面：

一是改革繼續向縱深推進。習(xi)近平(ping)總書記(ji)在(zai)慶(qing)祝改(gai)革(ge)開(kai)放40周年(nian)大(da)會(hui)上發(fa)出“在(zai)新時代繼續把改(gai)革(ge)開(kai)放推(tui)(tui)向前進”的號召，中央(yang)經濟工(gong)作會(hui)議強調堅持以供(gong)給側結構性(xing)改(gai)革(ge)為主線，推(tui)(tui)動高(gao)質量發(fa)展(zhan)，中央(yang)層(ceng)面(mian)(mian)高(gao)度重視深化(hua)改(gai)革(ge)，電力體制改(gai)革(ge)步入全面(mian)(mian)加速、縱深推(tui)(tui)進、落地見效階段。

二是全行業市場化水平將進一步提升。本輪電力改(gai)革(ge)(ge)的目(mu)標是要(yao)(yao)管(guan)住壟斷環(huan)(huan)節、放開競(jing)爭性環(huan)(huan)節，改(gai)革(ge)(ge)的總體(ti)方向是更加市(shi)(shi)場化。電力市(shi)(shi)場建設(she)進程加快，國家(jia)要(yao)(yao)求2019年上半年現貨市(shi)(shi)場試點省(sheng)具(ju)備試運行條件，交易機構進行股份制改(gai)造(zao)，市(shi)(shi)場主體(ti)對交易機構獨立程度期待更高。為(wei)進一步降低(di)企業用電成本，各(ge)級政府部門(men)將持(chi)續擴大直接交易規模，市(shi)(shi)場化電量占比(bi)將進一步加大。

三是改革呈現“強監管”特點。輸(shu)配電價監(jian)管(guan)模式已初步(bu)建立，隨著電力市場逐(zhu)(zhu)步(bu)建立完善，將(jiang)逐(zhu)(zhu)步(bu)建立起適應電力市場運(yun)行要求的(de)監(jian)管(guan)體系(xi)。未來(lai)，隨著市場化(hua)的(de)進一步(bu)深入，行業不僅接受來(lai)自政府的(de)嚴格監(jian)管(guan)，而且也(ye)將(jiang)接受社會監(jian)督。

四是信息進一步公開透明化。隨著市(shi)場化改革向縱深推進(jin)，信(xin)息(xi)對(dui)市(shi)場主(zhu)體利益影(ying)響將(jiang)更為顯著，對(dui)信(xin)息(xi)公開提(ti)出了更高(gao)的要(yao)求。電力現貨試點建設、輸配電價(jia)監管等改革任務(wu)對(dui)信(xin)息(xi)披露(lu)的要(yao)求進(jin)一步提(ti)高(gao)，要(yao)求電力企業做好信(xin)息(xi)發布，信(xin)息(xi)進(jin)一步透明(ming)化。

2019年我國電力體制改革落地預期

在(zai)愈加迫切的改(gai)(gai)革形勢下，2019年各項電改(gai)(gai)任務(wu)預期將進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)加速推進(jin)，逐步(bu)進(jin)入(ru)落地見效(xiao)階段。

在電力市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建(jian)設方面，2019年電力市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建(jian)設進(jin)程加快(kuai)，第(di)一(yi)批試(shi)點(dian)單(dan)位將(jiang)于2019年上(shang)半(ban)年啟(qi)動試(shi)運行(xing)，剩下所有省區(qu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)2019年上(shang)半(ban)年上(shang)報(bao)電力現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建(jian)設方案及(ji)時間表，現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建(jian)設試(shi)點(dian)全(quan)(quan)面推開(kai)，預計市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)規(gui)模進(jin)一(yi)步擴大，將(jiang)逐(zhu)步形成覆蓋中長期(qi)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)、現(xian)貨交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)、輔助服務交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)等的(de)全(quan)(quan)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)體(ti)系。市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化環境下，現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)運營(ying)直接(jie)關(guan)系到市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)主體(ti)利益(yi)，監管(guan)機構對現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)運營(ying)的(de)公開(kai)透明程度將(jiang)進(jin)行(xing)更為(wei)嚴格的(de)監管(guan)。

在增量(liang)配(pei)電放開(kai)方(fang)面(mian)，國家層(ceng)面(mian)將增量(liang)配(pei)電改革作(zuo)為當前(qian)穩增長穩投資的(de)重要措施，不斷加大(da)(da)改革推進(jin)力度(du)。截(jie)至目前(qian)，全國共批(pi)(pi)(pi)復三批(pi)(pi)(pi)次試點項目320個，第(di)四批(pi)(pi)(pi)試點項目申報工(gong)作(zuo)已(yi)啟(qi)動。國家正在大(da)(da)力推進(jin)增量(liang)配(pei)電試點，今(jin)年以來也發布(bu)了(le)不少促進(jin)其發展(zhan)的(de)政策文件，期(qi)待(dai)今(jin)年能夠科學(xue)地推進(jin)。

在電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)改革方面(mian)，2019年，考慮政府與(yu)社會降(jiang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)預期仍然強烈，更(geng)大力度促進民(min)營企(qi)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)，加(jia)上(shang)輸配電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)核價(jia)(jia)(jia)辦法與(yu)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)監審更(geng)加(jia)嚴(yan)格，預計(ji)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)可能持續下行。政府工作(zuo)報告(gao)提出，以改革推動(dong)降(jiang)低(di)涉企(qi)收(shou)費，清(qing)理(li)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)附(fu)加(jia)收(shou)費，降(jiang)低(di)制(zhi)造業(ye)用電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)，一般工商業(ye)平均電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)再降(jiang)低(di)10%。加(jia)上(shang)經濟(ji)下行預期、更(geng)大力度促進民(min)營企(qi)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)等因(yin)素，可能再次出臺降(jiang)低(di)企(qi)業(ye)用能成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)等政策，電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)水平政策性下調可能性較(jiao)大。

在(zai)發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)方面(mian)，2019年，政(zheng)府有關(guan)部門對(dui)加快發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)的(de)訴求也在(zai)持續(xu)提升，預計(ji)發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)將成為(wei)(wei)穩增長的(de)重(zhong)要手段，持續(xu)擴大(da)放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)比(bi)例一直(zhi)是發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)政(zheng)策制(zhi)定主要方向，2019年4個行(xing)業發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)將深(shen)入推進，經營性行(xing)業的(de)發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)也將逐步放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)，現貨市(shi)場(chang)建設成為(wei)(wei)電(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)化改革重(zhong)點，為(wei)(wei)發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)進一步放(fang)(fang)(fang)開(kai)提供了新的(de)空間(jian)。

在售(shou)(shou)電(dian)(dian)側(ce)放開(kai)方(fang)面(mian)，售(shou)(shou)電(dian)(dian)側(ce)改革是電(dian)(dian)力(li)行業向民(min)營(ying)資本(ben)放開(kai)準入(ru)、拓(tuo)展民(min)營(ying)資本(ben)發(fa)展空(kong)間(jian)(jian)、激發(fa)民(min)間(jian)(jian)資本(ben)活(huo)力(li)的“切入(ru)點”，各方(fang)較為關注。當前國(guo)內外經濟(ji)形勢復雜，國(guo)內“三去一(yi)(yi)降(jiang)(jiang)一(yi)(yi)補”壓(ya)力(li)持續增加，國(guo)際貿易摩擦頻發(fa)，國(guo)家和地(di)方(fang)政府(fu)降(jiang)(jiang)低企(qi)業用電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)需求迫(po)切、導向明顯。在此背景下，深入(ru)推進售(shou)(shou)電(dian)(dian)側(ce)改革，放寬(kuan)直接(jie)交(jiao)易準入(ru)條件、擴大(da)直接(jie)交(jiao)易規模(mo)、提高售(shou)(shou)電(dian)(dian)主體及電(dian)(dian)力(li)用戶的準入(ru)批(pi)次(ci)，可能(neng)成為2019年重點方(fang)向。從售(shou)(shou)電(dian)(dian)競爭來看，市(shi)場份額可能(neng)進一(yi)(yi)步(bu)向擁有發(fa)電(dian)(dian)背景的售(shou)(shou)電(dian)(dian)公司聚集(ji)，民(min)營(ying)售(shou)(shou)電(dian)(dian)公司壓(ya)力(li)進一(yi)(yi)步(bu)增大(da)。

2019年是(shi)中華人民(min)共(gong)和國(guo)成立70周年，電(dian)力(li)行業需要全(quan)面(mian)貫徹落實黨的(de)十九大(da)、中央經濟工作會議及全(quan)國(guo)兩會精神(shen)，以電(dian)力(li)體制(zhi)改革(ge)為(wei)抓手，著(zhu)力(li)推動電(dian)力(li)發展(zhan)質量變革(ge)、效率變革(ge)和動力(li)變革(ge)，促進電(dian)力(li)工業繼續(xu)向清潔低碳、安全(quan)高(gao)效轉(zhuan)型，更好地滿足人民(min)群眾多層次多樣(yang)化高(gao)質量用電(dian)需求。