国产精品视频一区二区三区无码,国产午夜精品无码,午夜天堂一区人妻,无遮挡色视频免费观看,中文字幕久热精品视频在线

“我國‘十四五’期間電力平衡情況是當前業界十分關切、也具有一定爭議的問題。經我院初步測算，預計‘十四五’期間全社會用電量增長率為4%～5%，電力彈性系數小于1，電力負荷峰谷差持續加大，冬季采暖范圍擴大導致冬季用電峰值上升較快，夏季日負荷雙峰特征更加明顯。”國網能源研究院有限公司（以下簡稱“國網能源院”）董事長、院長、黨委書記張運洲于近日在2019年第一批基礎研究年度報告發布會上的權威預測引起業內廣泛關注。

記者獲悉，今年是國(guo)(guo)網能源院(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)布(bu)年度(du)報告的第11年，目前已經形成了“2+13”精品年度(du)報告系列。本(ben)次發(fa)(fa)(fa)布(bu)的3份報告圍(wei)繞國(guo)(guo)內電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)形勢及趨勢、發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)能源與電(dian)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)狀況、新能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)等(deng)主題展(zhan)開，為專(zhuan)業人(ren)士(shi)提供(gong)有(you)價值的基礎研究成果和參(can)考資(zi)料，為各界人(ren)士(shi)認識和了解我國(guo)(guo)能源電(dian)力(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)動態提供(gong)參(can)考和借鑒(jian)。

全國電力供需總體平衡二產用電增速將明顯放緩

隨著(zhu)“十三(san)五(wu)”規劃執行進入中后(hou)期(qi)，“十四(si)五(wu)”規劃前期(qi)研(yan)究(jiu)工作(zuo)陸續展開。“預計一次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費平(ping)(ping)穩增長(chang)，增速(su)在2%左右，電(dian)(dian)力(li)消費增速(su)明顯高(gao)于一次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)增速(su)，80%以上清(qing)潔能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉化為電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)加以利用，電(dian)(dian)氣化水平(ping)(ping)將(jiang)持續較快上升”是國(guo)網能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)院對“十四(si)五(wu)”期(qi)間能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)增長(chang)趨勢的基本(ben)判斷。

2018年(nian)，我國全社(she)會(hui)用電(dian)量增速高達(da)8.5%，創(chuang)近7年(nian)新高。

本次(ci)發布(bu)的(de)(de)(de)《中國電(dian)力供需分(fen)(fen)析報告》對這一(yi)高增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)產生的(de)(de)(de)原因(yin)進行了詳(xiang)細分(fen)(fen)解：經(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)長、電(dian)能替(ti)代和氣溫(wen)因(yin)素分(fen)(fen)別拉動(dong)全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長4.9、2.4和1.2個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。第(di)二產業(ye)依舊(jiu)是拉動(dong)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)動(dong)力，黑色金(jin)屬行業(ye)9.8%的(de)(de)(de)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)帶動(dong)高耗能行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)回升(sheng)至6.1%。

今年(nian)電(dian)力需(xu)(xu)求將如(ru)何發展(zhan)？國網能源院經濟與能源供需(xu)(xu)研究(jiu)所(suo)副(fu)所(suo)長譚(tan)顯東(dong)預測，今年(nian)電(dian)力需(xu)(xu)求增(zeng)長趨緩，預計(ji)全社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量將達到7.28~7.41萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦時，比2018年(nian)增(zeng)長5%~7%。結(jie)合前5個月的用(yong)電(dian)量情況，預計(ji)增(zeng)速在5%~6%的概率最大。

“分(fen)(fen)季度看，隨(sui)著逆周期調控(kong)政策效果不斷顯現，加(jia)之2018年(nian)同期基數走低，預計三、四季度用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)將分(fen)(fen)別(bie)回升至6.7%和(he)6.9%。分(fen)(fen)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)看，第(di)二(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)明顯放緩，預計增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為3.9%，而受鄉村振興戰(zhan)略加(jia)速(su)推進等因素影響，第(di)一產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)保(bao)持較快(kuai)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，預計增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為8.6%，第(di)三產(chan)業(ye)(ye)和(he)居民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)預計分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為11.5%和(he)10.3%。分(fen)(fen)區(qu)(qu)域看，各區(qu)(qu)域用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)均有下降，華(hua)北(bei)、華(hua)東和(he)南(nan)方電(dian)網區(qu)(qu)域是拉動(dong)全(quan)國用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)主要(yao)區(qu)(qu)域。”譚顯東介紹。

在電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)側，《中(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需分(fen)析(xi)報告》預測，今年(nian)全國(guo)新增(zeng)裝機容量將達1.1億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，其中(zhong)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)4500萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)710萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)527萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)2800萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、太陽能發電(dian)(dian)(dian)2500萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦。預計到2019年(nian)底，全國(guo)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量將達20.1億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，比(bi)2018年(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)5.8%，非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機比(bi)重達40.9%。從全國(guo)范圍看，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需總體(ti)平(ping)衡，部分(fen)地區高(gao)峰時段電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應緊張。

新能源發電量和占比“雙升”統籌協調煤電新增與退役

本次發(fa)布(bu)的《中國(guo)(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)發(fa)電分析(xi)報告(gao)》顯示，2018年(nian)我國(guo)(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝機持續快速(su)增長，占(zhan)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)總裝機容量(liang)比重達(da)19%，首次超(chao)過(guo)水電裝機；2018年(nian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)發(fa)電新(xin)(xin)(xin)增容量(liang)占(zhan)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)電源(yuan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增裝機容量(liang)的54%，連續第二(er)年(nian)超(chao)過(guo)火(huo)電裝機。

“2018年(nian)我國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)達到(dao)5435億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比(bi)增長29%，占全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)總(zong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)7.8%，同(tong)比(bi)提高(gao)(gao)1.2個百(bai)分(fen)點，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)和發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占比(bi)雙升。”國(guo)(guo)網能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)院新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)(yu)統(tong)計(ji)研究所(suo)劉(liu)佳寧介紹，“預計(ji)到(dao)2020年(nian)底，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)會達到(dao)4.9億千(qian)瓦(wa)以上(shang)，預計(ji)到(dao)2030年(nian)底，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)總(zong)裝機至少(shao)會達到(dao)10.8億千(qian)瓦(wa)，占全(quan)(quan)(quan)部(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝機容量(liang)的(de)(de)比(bi)重超過30%。”為解(jie)決新(xin)形勢下高(gao)(gao)比(bi)例(li)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納問題，張運洲建議，應堅持集中式(shi)與(yu)(yu)分(fen)布式(shi)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)并舉，進一步向東(dong)中部(bu)地區傾斜，通過優化(hua)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)布局(ju)，充分(fen)利用(yong)東(dong)中部(bu)地區的(de)(de)消(xiao)納市場空(kong)間，更有助于實(shi)現5%棄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)率(lv)控制(zhi)目標(biao)，還可以提高(gao)(gao)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝機規模約1000萬千(qian)瓦(wa)，降低約500萬千(qian)瓦(wa)靈活調節電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)需求。此外，建議考慮適(shi)度放寬棄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)率(lv)指(zhi)標(biao)，樹(shu)立(li)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納的(de)(de)“利用(yong)率(lv)”理念，即(ji)采用(yong)以全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應總(zong)成(cheng)本最低為原(yuan)則的(de)(de)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納指(zhi)標(biao)。

在全球(qiu)削減煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)消費的大(da)形勢下(xia)，我(wo)(wo)國將面臨(lin)更(geng)大(da)的控(kong)煤(mei)(mei)壓力。國網(wang)能源院(yuan)測(ce)算，我(wo)(wo)國煤(mei)(mei)電裝機峰值約12.3～13.5億千瓦。

“相對于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)平衡而言，未來電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平衡是(shi)關鍵問題，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平衡和(he)對其(qi)他電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)調節補(bu)償(chang)需求決(jue)(jue)定了煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統中(zhong)仍將繼續發(fa)揮‘壓艙石‘和(he)‘穩定器’等(deng)重要作用(yong)。”張(zhang)運洲(zhou)強調，2030年前后要在(zai)(zai)(zai)系統中(zhong)維持12億千(qian)瓦以(yi)上的(de)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機，不宜(yi)過早、過快大規(gui)模淘汰煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，重點核心供電(dian)(dian)(dian)區域還應布局一(yi)批保(bao)障安全供應的(de)應急(ji)備用(yong)燃煤(mei)(mei)機組。在(zai)(zai)(zai)控制用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)總量(liang)情(qing)況下，可考慮(lv)適當放寬(kuan)東中(zhong)部地區煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)建設規(gui)模，進一(yi)步發(fa)揮其(qi)高保(bao)證出力(li)(li)(li)的(de)調節作用(yong)，逐步降(jiang)低煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組利(li)用(yong)小時數(shu)，為清潔能源(yuan)發(fa)展騰(teng)出更多的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)空間，更經濟解決(jue)(jue)“十四五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平衡問題。