2021年3月15日,習近平總書記首次創造性提出要構建以新能源為主體的新型電力系統。2023年7月11日,習近平總書記明確指出新型電力系統具有清潔低碳、安全充裕、經濟高效、供需協同、靈活智能五方面特征。通俗理解,清潔低碳就是推動形成以綠色為底色、以電為中心的能源供給和消費體系;安全充裕就是推動新型電力系統綜合安全防御體系構建,提升電力先行保障和服務能力;經濟高效就是提升電力系統整體運行效率,推動更經濟、更可持續的能源轉型;供需協同就是激發供需兩端協同響應潛力,實現高質量的供需動態平衡;靈活智能則是促進能量流、信息流、碳流、價值流深度融合,提升電力系統韌性,提高能源利用效率和電碳協同能力。
當前,能源(yuan)綠色(se)(se)低碳(tan)轉型(xing)(xing)加速推進,呈現能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力化、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力能源(yuan)化和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力綜合化趨勢。規劃建(jian)設新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)能源(yuan)體系(xi)(xi)、構建(jian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)和(he)建(jian)設新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網是實施能源(yuan)安全新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)戰略的(de)具體路徑,新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)是新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)能源(yuan)體系(xi)(xi)的(de)關(guan)鍵支撐和(he)中心環節(jie),新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網則是樞(shu)紐(niu)平(ping)臺和(he)核(he)心環節(jie)。“十五(wu)(wu)五(wu)(wu)”是構建(jian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)關(guan)鍵時期(qi),如何(he)更加有效(xiao)地(di)發(fa)揮電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)在國(guo)民(min)經濟中的(de)基礎和(he)先導(dao)作用,有力地(di)支撐國(guo)家重(zhong)大(da)發(fa)展戰略和(he)目標的(de)實現,更好地(di)滿足人(ren)民(min)群眾日益增長的(de)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)需求(qiu),實現能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力安全供應(ying)、綠色(se)(se)低碳(tan)轉型(xing)(xing)和(he)全國(guo)統(tong)(tong)一電(dian)(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)建(jian)設,是“十五(wu)(wu)五(wu)(wu)”能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力面臨(lin)的(de)核(he)心任務和(he)艱巨(ju)挑戰。
電力工業進入新發展階段
電力工(gong)業已經邁(mai)入具有“五(wu)高”特征(zheng)和未來十年用電量仍可能保持“中(zhong)速”增長的新發展階段。
“五高(gao)(gao)”主要體(ti)(ti)現在:一是(shi)高(gao)(gao)比(bi)例新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)上進入成(cheng)熟、規(gui)范的(de)高(gao)(gao)質(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)新階(jie)段。新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)比(bi)重(zhong)加速提升(sheng),已經成(cheng)為發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機主體(ti)(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),截至2024年底,全國新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)達(da)14億千瓦(wa),占總(zong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)的(de)42.0%,新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.8萬(wan)億千瓦(wa)時,占總(zong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)18.5%。新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)大幅(fu)度下(xia)降,本(ben)體(ti)(ti)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)平(ping)價入網,但是(shi)本(ben)體(ti)(ti)外成(cheng)本(ben)則溢(yi)出轉移至電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統、持續產生(sheng)巨大的(de)系統成(cheng)本(ben)。新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)資(zi)收(shou)益率加快下(xia)降、高(gao)(gao)回報時代已經結束(shu)。高(gao)(gao)比(bi)例新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)因隨機性(xing)、間(jian)歇性(xing)和波動性(xing)帶來電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統高(gao)(gao)不確(que)定性(xing)。
二是(shi)高比例(li)新(xin)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)。受新(xin)能源(yuan)技術、市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)和以綠(lv)色化(hua)(hua)(hua)、數字化(hua)(hua)(hua)、智能化(hua)(hua)(hua)為核心的科(ke)技革命所驅(qu)動(dong),新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)形態(tai)發生根(gen)本性(xing)變化(hua)(hua)(hua),加快出(chu)現(xian)(xian)新(xin)型市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti):一(yi)是(shi)“小”“微(wei)”市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)即(ji)小容量(liang)(liang)(liang)、微(wei)電(dian)(dian)網大(da)(da)(da)規模(mo)出(chu)現(xian)(xian),將與現(xian)(xian)代大(da)(da)(da)機(ji)(ji)組大(da)(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)網并駕(jia)齊驅(qu);二是(shi)離(li)(li)網市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)隨機(ji)(ji)并入(ru)或(huo)離(li)(li)開(kai)電(dian)(dian)網,隨機(ji)(ji)參與或(huo)離(li)(li)開(kai)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang);三(san)是(shi)移動(dong)性(xing)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti),大(da)(da)(da)量(liang)(liang)(liang)隨機(ji)(ji)涌(yong)入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong);四是(shi)聚合市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(如虛(xu)擬電(dian)(dian)廠、產消一(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)(hua)(hua)等(deng)),大(da)(da)(da)量(liang)(liang)(liang)隨機(ji)(ji)涌(yong)入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong);五是(shi)多(duo)能市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(如電(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車等(deng))大(da)(da)(da)量(liang)(liang)(liang)隨機(ji)(ji)涌(yong)入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)。電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)各類市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)從全(quan)面入(ru)網進一(yi)步發展(zhan)為全(quan)面進入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang),使得電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)呈現(xian)(xian)出(chu)“不確(que)定(ding)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)+不確(que)定(ding)用戶+低慣量(liang)(liang)(liang)系(xi)統(tong)”的復(fu)合特征,系(xi)統(tong)運行(xing)的不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)顯著增(zeng)加,對(dui)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平衡和安全(quan)穩定(ding)控制提出(chu)更高要求。同時,市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)多(duo)元化(hua)(hua)(hua)必然(ran)產生利益多(duo)元化(hua)(hua)(hua),在不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)背景下必然(ran)要求構建與之相匹配的現(xian)(xian)代電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)治理體(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)系(xi)。
三是高比(bi)例電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)子設備。隨(sui)著大(da)規模(mo)新能源發電(dian)(dian)、高壓直(zhi)流(liu)輸電(dian)(dian)、大(da)功率(lv)直(zhi)流(liu)負荷等的快速發展,電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統“源—網(wang)—荷”各部分電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)子化(hua)程度(du)逐年(nian)提高,電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統慣量(liang)加速降低,給安全穩定運(yun)行帶來極大(da)困難。
四是(shi)高(gao)概率極端氣(qi)候氣(qi)象(xiang)。極端氣(qi)候氣(qi)象(xiang)天氣(qi)頻發成為常(chang)態,無論對(dui)(dui)電力供應,還(huan)是(shi)對(dui)(dui)用電負荷(he),都帶來(lai)(lai)越來(lai)(lai)越高(gao)的不確定(ding)性。
五(wu)是高活躍創新(xin)。各領(ling)域大量科技創新(xin)方向不斷涌現(xian),新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)主(zhu)動支撐(cheng)技術(shu)、CCUS、長(chang)時儲能(neng)(neng)、氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)的利用(yong)與制儲運技術(shu)成為創新(xin)熱(re)點(dian)。綜合(he)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、虛擬(ni)電廠、負荷聚合(he)商、智慧能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、碳循環(huan)經濟等(deng)大量新(xin)業態、新(xin)模(mo)式方興未艾(ai)。這種高活躍的創新(xin)態勢(shi),對(dui)電力(li)系(xi)統的整體性謀劃(hua)與一體化設(she)計提(ti)出(chu)了更高要求(qiu)。
我國未來十年全社會用電(dian)量(liang)仍可能維持“中(zhong)速(su)(su)”增長。初步預(yu)計(ji),2030年、2035年全國全社會用電(dian)量(liang)將達到12.8萬(wan)億~14.0萬(wan)億千瓦時、15.5萬(wan)億~17.6萬(wan)億千瓦時。對應“十五(wu)五(wu)”和“十六五(wu)”時期,用電(dian)量(liang)年均(jun)增速(su)(su)預(yu)計(ji)分別為4.5%~6.3%、3.8%~4.7%。基準(zhun)情(qing)景下,2030年、2035年用電(dian)量(liang)分別為13.5萬(wan)億、16.7萬(wan)億千瓦時,對應“十五(wu)五(wu)”“十六五(wu)”年均(jun)增速(su)(su)分別為5.6%、4.3%,電(dian)力彈性系(xi)數分別為1.2、1.0。
電(dian)力(li)工業(ye)在新(xin)(xin)發展(zhan)階段將面臨六大(da)嚴峻挑戰。一是越來越大(da)的(de)不確定性。新(xin)(xin)能源出力(li)隨機波動(dong)、負荷需(xu)求多變難測(ce)、極端天氣常(chang)態出現等多重(zhong)不確定性疊加,傳(chuan)統(tong)“預測(ce)-落實”規劃范式難以適應。如何(he)將不確定性電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)轉(zhuan)變為可(ke)預測(ce)性電(dian)力(li)系統(tong),已成為新(xin)(xin)型電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)建(jian)設中亟待解決的(de)重(zhong)要問題。
二是越來越困難的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)量平(ping)衡(heng)。新能源高(gao)(gao)比例接入后,電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需平(ping)衡(heng)從(cong)“電(dian)(dian)量平(ping)衡(heng)”或“電(dian)(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡(heng)”為主轉向“電(dian)(dian)量+容量”雙重平(ping)衡(heng),夏季、冬季“雙高(gao)(gao)峰”特征顯著,日峰谷差率(lv)長期維持(chi)高(gao)(gao)位,調峰調頻(pin)壓力(li)持(chi)續增大。在此背景下,如何構建科學的(de)(de)有效容量體(ti)(ti)系、完善(shan)的(de)(de)戰略備用體(ti)(ti)系及(ji)充足的(de)(de)靈活調節能力(li)體(ti)(ti)系,就成為亟待破解的(de)(de)關鍵問題。同(tong)時,受(shou)全球氣候變化(hua)影響(xiang),極端天(tian)氣事件呈現頻(pin)發(fa)態勢,進一(yi)步加(jia)劇(ju)了電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)量平(ping)衡(heng)的(de)(de)復雜性與嚴峻性。
三(san)是越來越嚴峻的(de)(de)電(dian)力安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)。在國(guo)家能(neng)(neng)源安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)新戰略下構(gou)建新型(xing)能(neng)(neng)源體系,其能(neng)(neng)源安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)重心從傳統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)油氣安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)為(wei)主向電(dian)力安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)轉移,呈(cheng)現(xian)出傳統(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)油氣安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)和(he)電(dian)力安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)并(bing)重的(de)(de)整體態(tai)勢,更(geng)長遠(yuan)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)演變為(wei)以電(dian)力安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)為(wei)主的(de)(de)新格局(ju)。電(dian)力安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)呈(cheng)現(xian)出利(li)益(yi)(yi)多元化(hua)、系統(tong)(tong)(tong)慣量小、供需平衡難和(he)氣象屬性(xing)增強等新特(te)點。電(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)運行特(te)性(xing)發生重大變化(hua),如何保障電(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)定的(de)(de)問(wen)題日益(yi)(yi)突(tu)出。
四(si)是(shi)越來越多(duo)(duo)元的(de)(de)利益主(zhu)體(ti)。在電力(li)轉型過程(cheng)中,源網(wang)荷(he)儲各(ge)環節互(hu)動(dong)增多(duo)(duo),多(duo)(duo)能(neng)互(hu)補、共享儲能(neng)、負荷(he)聚(ju)合商、虛擬(ni)電廠(chang)、微電網(wang)等新市場主(zhu)體(ti)大量涌現。各(ge)類主(zhu)體(ti)利益訴求差異(yi)顯著,如何(he)加快(kuai)構建與新型電力(li)系(xi)統相(xiang)適配(pei)的(de)(de)現代電力(li)治理體(ti)系(xi),成為破解問題(ti)的(de)(de)關(guan)鍵命題(ti)。
五是越(yue)來越(yue)巨額的(de)系統(tong)(tong)(tong)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)。新能源(yuan)占比(bi)提升需要(yao)電力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)增加(jia)(jia)(jia)靈(ling)(ling)活調(diao)節資源(yuan)和增加(jia)(jia)(jia)電網投資,相應增加(jia)(jia)(jia)了(le)常規電源(yuan)、靈(ling)(ling)活性資源(yuan)、電網等主體的(de)投資和運行成(cheng)本(ben)(ben),系統(tong)(tong)(tong)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)快(kuai)速上(shang)升,如何(he)加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)制(zhi)定合理的(de)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏導(dao)機制(zhi)顯得尤為重要(yao)。
六是越來(lai)越艱巨的(de)碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)。電力(li)(li)系統(tong)既(ji)要承(cheng)接非電行(xing)業通過“電力(li)(li)替(ti)代”實(shi)現碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)所帶來(lai)的(de)轉型壓力(li)(li),又要完(wan)成自身的(de)碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)目(mu)標。電力(li)(li)需(xu)求增(zeng)長(chang)快慢是影響電力(li)(li)行(xing)業碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)時間的(de)核心因素。在全(quan)國全(quan)社會用電量“中速”增(zeng)長(chang)和(he)確保安(an)全(quan)供電的(de)背景下(xia),非化石能(neng)源(yuan)新增(zeng)發電量能(neng)否滿(man)足新增(zeng)用電需(xu)求,將直接關(guan)系到電力(li)(li)行(xing)業何(he)時碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)。在全(quan)社會如期實(shi)現碳(tan)(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)的(de)剛性(xing)約束下(xia),如何(he)選擇對(dui)經濟社會發展更(geng)為有利(li)的(de)達峰(feng)(feng)路徑,就(jiu)成為電力(li)(li)行(xing)業低碳(tan)(tan)轉型中必(bi)須破(po)解的(de)關(guan)鍵課題。
構建新型電力系統
要著力攻克三大核心問題
化解六大(da)(da)嚴峻挑戰,為(wei)電力(li)(li)(li)系統重塑和(he)模式變革帶來了(le)巨大(da)(da)的發展機遇和(he)廣闊的市場(chang)空間。當前(qian)亟需系統謀劃、精(jing)準(zhun)發力(li)(li)(li),著力(li)(li)(li)破解三大(da)(da)核(he)心問題。
第一大核(he)心(xin)問題,就是(shi)確(que)保(bao)安(an)(an)全(quan)供(gong)電(dian)。構建(jian)(jian)新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)系統要始終堅持以(yi)人民為(wei)(wei)中心(xin)的發展思想,統籌發展和(he)安(an)(an)全(quan),切實履行黨中央賦予電(dian)力(li)行業的戰略使命,以(yi)電(dian)力(li)保(bao)供(gong)為(wei)(wei)前(qian)提,決不允許發生大面(mian)積“拉閘限電(dian)”。如何(he)應對(dui)越(yue)來越(yue)嚴峻的電(dian)力(li)安(an)(an)全(quan)和(he)電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量平衡(heng)挑戰是(shi)構建(jian)(jian)新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)系統的基礎和(he)前(qian)提。要解決這一核(he)心(xin)問題,需要重點解決三(san)大難題。
一是要確保電(dian)力系統(tong)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)1的(de)合理充裕度(du)。近年(nian)來,發(fa)(fa)電(dian)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)不(bu)及負荷(he)(he)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速(su)度(du),系統(tong)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)充裕度(du)趨(qu)緊。需(xu)(xu)求方面,全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)遠超預期,且受(shou)溫控(kong)負荷(he)(he)影響,電(dian)網夏、冬季負荷(he)(he)尖峰趨(qu)勢凸顯。供應方面,基礎保障(zhang)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)建設不(bu)足(zu);新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)已成為(wei)新增(zeng)裝機(ji)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti),新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)頂峰保供作(zuo)用(yong)(yong)非(fei)常(chang)有(you)(you)(you)限、有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)率非(fei)常(chang)低。“十四五”以來,全(quan)國最大(da)負荷(he)(he)年(nian)均增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)超過9300萬千(qian)瓦(wa),而有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)僅為(wei)5300萬千(qian)瓦(wa)。經(jing)研判,系統(tong)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)與最大(da)負荷(he)(he)的(de)比值在(zai)全(quan)國層面需(xu)(xu)要達到1.18~1.2才能(neng)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)保障(zhang)電(dian)力平衡。確保電(dian)力系統(tong)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)的(de)合理充裕度(du),必須立足(zu)我(wo)國能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)稟賦,優化各類型(xing)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)功能(neng)定(ding)位,推動技術進步(bu),實現協同(tong)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)穩步(bu)從(cong)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)轉(zhuan)變成為(wei)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量(liang)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti),燃煤電(dian)廠從(cong)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)性(xing)(xing)、支(zhi)撐性(xing)(xing)、戰略性(xing)(xing)備用(yong)(yong)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)變,天然氣電(dian)廠由調(diao)(diao)峰為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)在(zai)部分(fen)地區(qu)發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)(hui)電(dian)力電(dian)量(liang)雙(shuang)重保障(zhang)作(zuo)用(yong)(yong)轉(zhuan)型(xing),核(he)電(dian)由提供基荷(he)(he)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)兼(jian)顧發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)(hui)調(diao)(diao)峰作(zuo)用(yong)(yong)轉(zhuan)型(xing),水電(dian)由電(dian)量(liang)供應為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)電(dian)量(liang)供應與靈活(huo)調(diao)(diao)節(jie)(jie)并重轉(zhuan)型(xing)。
二(er)是要確保靈(ling)活(huo)(huo)調(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)的(de)合理充裕度。隨(sui)著源(yuan)(yuan)荷兩(liang)側波動(dong)持續(xu)疊加,電(dian)力(li)系統調(diao)峰需求(qiu)發生深(shen)刻變化,呈現需求(qiu)規模持續(xu)擴大、需求(qiu)類(lei)型(xing)逐漸多(duo)元(yuan)、區域需求(qiu)差異明顯(xian)等(deng)特征。在(zai)此形勢下,電(dian)力(li)系統調(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)面臨傳(chuan)統調(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)逐漸緊缺、增量新型(xing)調(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)成本高(gao)(gao)、長周期調(diao)節(jie)手段缺乏等(deng)挑戰。“十五(wu)五(wu)”期間(jian),需要多(duo)措并(bing)舉確保靈(ling)活(huo)(huo)調(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)的(de)合理充裕度。推動(dong)煤(mei)電(dian)靈(ling)活(huo)(huo)性改造以及深(shen)調(diao)改造、煤(mei)電(dian)增配新型(xing)儲能(neng)等(deng)技改,來適應(ying)源(yuan)(yuan)荷兩(liang)端波動(dong)性更(geng)大程(cheng)度疊加場景。電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)側加大存量挖潛與(yu)增量優(you)配,電(dian)網側夯實物(wu)理網架及互濟條件,負荷側持續(xu)推動(dong)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)參與(yu)系統調(diao)節(jie),以及推動(dong)分布(bu)式儲能(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)更(geng)大規模應(ying)用。統籌(chou)考慮優(you)化組合多(duo)類(lei)型(xing)調(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan),避免單一資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)飽和效應(ying)。有(you)效推動(dong)多(duo)時間(jian)尺度調(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)建設,實現調(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)供給充裕、結構合理、響應(ying)高(gao)(gao)效的(de)目標。
三(san)是要(yao)始(shi)(shi)終堅(jian)(jian)持電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)調(diao)度(du)。在電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)轉型過程(cheng)中,源網荷(he)儲各環節(jie)互動增多,多能互補、共享儲能、負(fu)荷(he)聚合(he)商(shang)、虛擬電(dian)(dian)廠、微電(dian)(dian)網等新市場(chang)主(zhu)體大量涌現,利(li)益關系(xi)錯(cuo)綜復雜(za),要(yao)始(shi)(shi)終堅(jian)(jian)持統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)規劃、統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)調(diao)度(du)、統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)管理,充分發(fa)揮(hui)統(tong)(tong)(tong)一(yi)調(diao)度(du)對電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)運行的統(tong)(tong)(tong)籌(chou)協調(diao)作(zuo)用,助(zhu)力(li)(li)清潔能源高效利(li)用,保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)安(an)全穩定運行。
第二大核心問(wen)題,就是(shi)加(jia)快綠色(se)低碳轉型。電(dian)力綠色(se)低碳轉型是(shi)支(zhi)撐全社會實現“雙碳”目(mu)標(biao)的關(guan)鍵,高(gao)質量大力發展新能(neng)源(yuan)是(shi)重要(yao)手段。目(mu)前(qian)需要(yao)著力解決(jue)三(san)大難題。
一(yi)是要高(gao)(gao)度重(zhong)(zhong)視(shi)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)、結(jie)(jie)構(gou)、布(bu)(bu)局的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)優(you)化(hua)(hua),著(zhu)(zhu)力(li)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)率(lv)(lv)和(he)(he)構(gou)網友好(hao)性。在(zai)政策(ce)支持和(he)(he)市場需求雙(shuang)重(zhong)(zhong)驅動(dong)下(xia),“十五五”期間新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)年均增(zeng)(zeng)長在(zai)2億千瓦以上(shang),并成為(wei)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供應主(zhu)(zhu)力(li),逐步(bu)(bu)承(cheng)擔(dan)起主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)責任。因(yin)此,新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)更需要加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)質量(liang)(liang)(liang),分(fen)(fen)區(qu)域分(fen)(fen)階段(duan)(duan)(duan)確(que)(que)定新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)合(he)理利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)。一(yi)方面(mian),依托(tuo)棄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)特征有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)引(yin)導(dao)(dao)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)節(jie)奏,推(tui)動(dong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)與結(jie)(jie)構(gou)協同(tong)(tong)優(you)化(hua)(hua)。結(jie)(jie)合(he)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消納困難時段(duan)(duan)(duan)加(jia)(jia)(jia)速向負荷水(shui)平偏低的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)春(chun)秋季以及光伏大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)午間時段(duan)(duan)(duan)集(ji)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)勢(shi),引(yin)導(dao)(dao)優(you)化(hua)(hua)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)并網裝(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)和(he)(he)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)。現階段(duan)(duan)(duan)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)大(da)(da)光小(xiao)”省區(qu),需提(ti)(ti)前研究典型(xing)水(shui)平年份(fen)及過渡(du)年份(fen)最(zui)優(you)風(feng)(feng)(feng)光比,引(yin)導(dao)(dao)優(you)化(hua)(hua)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)和(he)(he)結(jie)(jie)構(gou),實現發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)和(he)(he)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)(lv)雙(shuang)提(ti)(ti)升。現階段(duan)(duan)(duan)“風(feng)(feng)(feng)小(xiao)光大(da)(da)”省區(qu),需準確(que)(que)研判后(hou)(hou)續(xu)(xu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)持續(xu)(xu)失衡風(feng)(feng)(feng)險,推(tui)動(dong)分(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)(shi)光伏合(he)理配置(zhi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。另一(yi)方面(mian),著(zhu)(zhu)力(li)優(you)化(hua)(hua)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)布(bu)(bu)局。實行分(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)(shi)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)與集(ji)中式(shi)(shi)(shi)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)并重(zhong)(zhong)。因(yin)地(di)(di)(di)制宜優(you)先鼓(gu)勵(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)“兩自(zi)四化(hua)(hua)”(即(ji)自(zi)平衡、自(zi)安全(quan)、小(xiao)微化(hua)(hua)、綠色化(hua)(hua)、數(shu)智(zhi)化(hua)(hua)、共享化(hua)(hua))自(zi)治型(xing)分(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)(shi)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)或智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)微電(dian)(dian)(dian)網。規(gui)劃(hua)布(bu)(bu)局沙戈荒(huang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)建(jian)設(she),在(zai)“三北”地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)優(you)先發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)光熱(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian),積極推(tui)動(dong)海上(shang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)。在(zai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)富集(ji)區(qu),因(yin)地(di)(di)(di)制宜規(gui)劃(hua)布(bu)(bu)局氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、算力(li)等戰新(xin)(xin)(xin)產業(ye),實現“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)西(xi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)”和(he)(he)“產業(ye)西(xi)移(yi)”。第三方面(mian),著(zhu)(zhu)力(li)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)率(lv)(lv)和(he)(he)構(gou)網友好(hao)性,推(tui)動(dong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)逐步(bu)(bu)承(cheng)擔(dan)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)責任。引(yin)導(dao)(dao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與光伏合(he)理配比,科(ke)學配置(zhi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)對已(yi)配置(zhi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)但利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)(lv)偏低電(dian)(dian)(dian)站的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技術改(gai)造(zao),建(jian)設(she)具備高(gao)(gao)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)友好(hao)型(xing)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站。加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)可預測性,提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)裝(zhuang)機(ji)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)率(lv)(lv);落(luo)實新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)調頻(pin)等涉網性能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)要求,提(ti)(ti)升抗擾動(dong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)標準,加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主(zhu)(zhu)動(dong)支撐與構(gou)網型(xing)技術創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin),推(tui)動(dong)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)具備與傳統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)相同(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)穩(wen)定支撐能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li);加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)基(ji)于(yu)同(tong)(tong)步(bu)(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)光熱(re)(re)等新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技術;加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)(kuai)完善(shan)分(fen)(fen)散(san)式(shi)(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)分(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)(shi)光伏接入(ru)系(xi)統(tong)技術標準規(gui)范,切實提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)構(gou)網性能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。最(zui)后(hou)(hou),持續(xu)(xu)擴大(da)(da)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)非(fei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)。持續(xu)(xu)推(tui)進燃(ran)料乙醇、生(sheng)物柴油等清潔液體(ti)(ti)燃(ran)料商業(ye)化(hua)(hua)應用(yong)(yong)(yong);開(kai)展(zhan)“地(di)(di)(di)熱(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)+”多能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)互補供暖;鼓(gu)勵(li)開(kai)展(zhan)地(di)(di)(di)熱(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)與旅游業(ye)、種植養殖業(ye)及工(gong)業(ye)等產業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合(he)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong);加(jia)(jia)(jia)強中深層地(di)(di)(di)熱(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)制冷(leng)研究。
二是要(yao)(yao)(yao)高度重(zhong)(zhong)視電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)功(gong)能(neng)(neng)及形態(tai)(tai)演變(bian)。新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)路(lu)徑影響源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)荷(he)(he)形態(tai)(tai),進(jin)(jin)(jin)而(er)決定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)形態(tai)(tai),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)形態(tai)(tai)和(he)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)重(zhong)(zhong)心也(ye)反過來引導源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)荷(he)(he)形態(tai)(tai)和(he)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)模式。在轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)過程(cheng)中,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)從(cong)以(yi)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)導向(xiang)以(yi)可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)導轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變(bian),源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)荷(he)(he)功(gong)能(neng)(neng)定位和(he)結構(gou)形態(tai)(tai)要(yao)(yao)(yao)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行適(shi)應性調(diao)整。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)形態(tai)(tai)由(you)單向(xiang)逐級(ji)輸配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)傳統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang),向(xiang)包(bao)括交直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)混聯(lian)大(da)(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、微電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)和(he)可調(diao)節負荷(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變(bian)。一方(fang)面(mian),交直(zhi)(zhi)流(liu)混聯(lian)大(da)(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)規模進(jin)(jin)(jin)一步(bu)擴大(da)(da)(da)。隨著大(da)(da)(da)型(xing)清(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基地(di)向(xiang)負荷(he)(he)中心輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規模不斷(duan)擴大(da)(da)(da),要(yao)(yao)(yao)不斷(duan)提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)對清(qing)潔(jie)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)范圍優化(hua)配(pei)(pei)置水(shui)平。要(yao)(yao)(yao)創新建設柔性雙向(xiang)多(duo)(duo)(duo)起點(dian)多(duo)(duo)(duo)落點(dian)跨區(qu)特高壓網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)絡,以(yi)承擔(dan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)容量(liang)、遠(yuan)距離輸送任務(wu),省內網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架承擔(dan)區(qu)域協調(diao)平衡(heng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)(yao)職責(ze)。另一方(fang)面(mian),多(duo)(duo)(duo)元要(yao)(yao)(yao)素、微電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)協同(tong)自(zi)治的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新型(xing)(有源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan))配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)發(fa)揮配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)區(qu)域能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)平衡(heng)與(yu)互(hu)動作(zuo)用(yong)。巨量(liang)新形態(tai)(tai)新市(shi)場主(zhu)(zhu)體融入(ru)配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang),功(gong)能(neng)(neng)由(you)單純從(cong)主(zhu)(zhu)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)獲取和(he)分配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng),轉(zhuan)(zhuan)向(xiang)與(yu)主(zhu)(zhu)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行能(neng)(neng)量(liang)、信息、碳流(liu)、價值流(liu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)多(duo)(duo)(duo)要(yao)(yao)(yao)素雙向(xiang)互(hu)動。再一方(fang)面(mian),自(zi)治型(xing)小(xiao)微系(xi)(xi)統(tong)發(fa)揮“就(jiu)地(di)平衡(heng)”重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)(yao)(yao)作(zuo)用(yong)。以(yi)自(zi)治型(xing)分布式能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)和(he)自(zi)治型(xing)虛擬能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(如虛擬電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠、聚合商等)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)體的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)小(xiao)微系(xi)(xi)統(tong),與(yu)有源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)配(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)共(gong)同(tong)發(fa)揮多(duo)(duo)(duo)類能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)絡用(yong)能(neng)(neng)交互(hu)與(yu)自(zi)治協調(diao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)。
三是要高度(du)(du)重視系(xi)(xi)統成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)規模(mo)、結構、布局(ju)與消化(hua)。“十三五(wu)(wu)”以(yi)來,電(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統總成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)呈上(shang)漲趨(qu)勢,2016年(nian)(nian)到2023年(nian)(nian)間,年(nian)(nian)均增長(chang)(chang)7.0%。預計“十五(wu)(wu)五(wu)(wu)”電(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統總成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將持續上(shang)升,年(nian)(nian)均增長(chang)(chang)7.8%左右,超過(guo)“十三五(wu)(wu)”以(yi)來增速。初步測(ce)算,綜合考慮各類成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)變化(hua)趨(qu)勢,“十五(wu)(wu)五(wu)(wu)”期間,終端度(du)(du)電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)年(nian)(nian)均上(shang)漲約(yue)1分錢,且新能(neng)源(yuan)上(shang)網成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)降低無法抵消系(xi)(xi)統調節成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)上(shang)升。一(yi)方面,要發揮市場(chang)(chang)機(ji)制核心作(zuo)用(yong)進行成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)。建立“電(dian)能(neng)量(liang)市場(chang)(chang)疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)電(dian)能(neng)生產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、輔助(zhu)服(fu)務市場(chang)(chang)疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)系(xi)(xi)統調節成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、容量(liang)補償(chang)機(ji)制疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)長(chang)(chang)期發電(dian)容量(liang)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、綠(lv)色(se)市場(chang)(chang)(指碳市場(chang)(chang)、綠(lv)證市場(chang)(chang)、綠(lv)電(dian)市場(chang)(chang))疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)綠(lv)色(se)增量(liang)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)”的(de)市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)框架,實現“市場(chang)(chang)高效配置”。另一(yi)方面,建立覆蓋“市場(chang)(chang)、政府與社會(hui)”的(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)體系(xi)(xi)。政府和社會(hui)提供配套(tao),支(zhi)撐能(neng)源(yuan)市場(chang)(chang)充分發揮疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)作(zuo)用(yong),保障市場(chang)(chang)以(yi)外的(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導(dao)(dao)順暢(chang)。
第(di)三大核心問題,就是加快建(jian)設全國統一(yi)電(dian)(dian)力市場。面對越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)多元化的新市場主體不斷涌入電(dian)(dian)力市場,要充(chong)分發揮以電(dian)(dian)價機制(zhi)為主的市場機制(zhi)作用,有效確(que)保電(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)平衡和(he)促進(jin)電(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)協同,需(xu)要著力解決三大難題。
一(yi)(yi)是要積極(ji)穩(wen)妥推進(jin)各類經(jing)濟屬性主體(ti)全(quan)面(mian)入市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。堅持(chi)“兩個(ge)毫(hao)不動搖”,嚴格入市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)標(biao)準規范(fan),確保市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)安全(quan)穩(wen)定運行(xing)。一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian),推動新能源(yuan)全(quan)面(mian)參(can)(can)與(yu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)。完善“報(bao)量報(bao)價(jia)”“報(bao)量不報(bao)價(jia)”等(deng)多(duo)元化市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)參(can)(can)與(yu)模式,結合(he)(he)差價(jia)結算機制(zhi)實現與(yu)現有(you)政策的(de)(de)有(you)序銜接。另一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian),引導儲(chu)能、虛擬電廠、用戶側資(zi)源(yuan)等(deng)新型(xing)主體(ti)入市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。明(ming)確其市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)準入條(tiao)件、交(jiao)易(yi)規則及安全(quan)責任,例如新型(xing)儲(chu)能可作(zuo)為獨(du)立主體(ti)或與(yu)所屬電源(yuan)聯合(he)(he)參(can)(can)與(yu)輔(fu)助服務(wu)、現貨交(jiao)易(yi)等(deng)。再(zai)一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian),健全(quan)完善市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)退出機制(zhi)。對(dui)不符合(he)(he)安全(quan)標(biao)準、持(chi)續違反市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)規則的(de)(de)主體(ti)實行(xing)有(you)序退出,保障市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)公(gong)平競爭(zheng)秩(zhi)序,形成“多(duo)買多(duo)賣”的(de)(de)競爭(zheng)性市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)格局。
二是要建立科學的(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機制(zhi)以(yi)確保充裕的(de)有(you)效(xiao)容量(liang)和(he)靈(ling)活(huo)調(diao)節能力。電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)(tong)成本和(he)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)水平對(dui)新發(fa)(fa)展格局下實(shi)現經濟社會高質量(liang)發(fa)(fa)展至關重(zhong)要,電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機制(zhi)是電(dian)(dian)力市場(chang)的(de)基礎和(he)前提。科學的(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機制(zhi)可以(yi)科學反映不(bu)同類型電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)在電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)(tong)與(yu)市場(chang)運行中不(bu)同時段的(de)價(jia)值,增強投資預期,引(yin)導電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)和(he)電(dian)(dian)網科學規劃、合理布局、協調(diao)發(fa)(fa)展;還(huan)可以(yi)有(you)效(xiao)配置調(diao)峰(feng)調(diao)頻等靈(ling)活(huo)性資源(yuan),引(yin)導用戶(hu)主(zhu)動參與(yu)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)調(diao)節。
三是(shi)要實現市(shi)場(chang)公平有序。以(yi)《能源法(fa)》為統(tong)領(ling)(ling),以(yi)《電力(li)法(fa)》《可再生能源法(fa)》等為骨干,以(yi)行政法(fa)規和地方立法(fa)為補充,構建全流程(cheng)、一致性的新(xin)型電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)高(gao)(gao)質(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)展(zhan)法(fa)治保障(zhang)體(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi),全面覆蓋規劃建設、運行管理(li)、市(shi)場(chang)交易(yi)、價格機制(zhi)發(fa)展(zhan)各重(zhong)點(dian)環(huan)節(jie),加強(qiang)與其他領(ling)(ling)域法(fa)律(lv)規定的銜接(jie)性,提升新(xin)型電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)高(gao)(gao)質(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)展(zhan)法(fa)律(lv)制(zhi)度體(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)性、整體(ti)性、協(xie)同性,為能源高(gao)(gao)質(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)展(zhan)提供法(fa)治保障(zhang)。
大力發展以創新為內核的
新質生產力
攻克構建(jian)新(xin)型電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)三大核(he)心問題,從(cong)根本上引領系(xi)統(tong)躍升(sheng)、突破發展瓶頸,必須依靠科技創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)和(he)治(zhi)(zhi)理創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)。面向未來,應大力(li)(li)(li)(li)發展以創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)為內(nei)核(he)的(de)新(xin)質(zhi)生產力(li)(li)(li)(li),加(jia)快實現電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)治(zhi)(zhi)理能力(li)(li)(li)(li)現代(dai)化,加(jia)快打造具有(you)全(quan)球競爭力(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)現代(dai)化電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)產業體系(xi)。
一(yi)是推動(dong)(dong)有組織的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin),加快實(shi)現(xian)高水(shui)(shui)平能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)自(zi)立自(zi)強。一(yi)方(fang)面,科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)應與新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)轉(zhuan)型路徑、各(ge)類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)定位(wei)轉(zhuan)變一(yi)體化(hua)(hua)布局(ju)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)戰略布局(ju)、攻(gong)關(guan)(guan)方(fang)向、路線(xian)(xian)圖、突(tu)破(po)(po)時間(jian)(jian)表決定著(zhu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)否按預(yu)期實(shi)現(xian)碳(tan)(tan)中和(he)戰略目標(biao)(biao),影(ying)響著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)路徑設(she)計、節奏權(quan)衡(heng)、不(bu)同的(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)本與研發風險等。同時,“雙碳(tan)(tan)”目標(biao)(biao)下新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)路徑規劃也是基(ji)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)多元(yuan)化(hua)(hua)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)定位(wei)、一(yi)定技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)進(jin)步預(yu)期,對源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷(he)儲全環(huan)節各(ge)類技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)路線(xian)(xian)、創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)重點、突(tu)破(po)(po)時點、技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)經濟性水(shui)(shui)平都有具(ju)(ju)體要(yao)求。綜合(he)(he)來看,轉(zhuan)型路徑、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)定位(wei)、科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)方(fang)向之間(jian)(jian)具(ju)(ju)有互動(dong)(dong)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi),彼此(ci)要(yao)在新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)復(fu)雜、動(dong)(dong)態和(he)不(bu)確定的(de)(de)演化(hua)(hua)中實(shi)現(xian)協同,需(xu)(xu)要(yao)加強整(zheng)體研究(jiu)與滾動(dong)(dong)規劃。另一(yi)方(fang)面,科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)開展重大工(gong)程集(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)、一(yi)體化(hua)(hua)設(she)計。面向“雙碳(tan)(tan)”目標(biao)(biao),新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)總體問(wen)題(ti)更(geng)具(ju)(ju)長期性、復(fu)雜性、動(dong)(dong)態性,迫切需(xu)(xu)要(yao)依靠集(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)提供(gong)破(po)(po)局(ju)之道。新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)面臨的(de)(de)挑(tiao)戰既(ji)有各(ge)領域(yu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)攻(gong)關(guan)(guan)難題(ti),也有煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)、氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)與儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)各(ge)領域(yu)整(zheng)體集(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)問(wen)題(ti),是一(yi)個需(xu)(xu)要(yao)全環(huan)節技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)分頭攻(gong)關(guan)(guan)加集(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)應用的(de)(de)綜合(he)(he)性、系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)性工(gong)程。此(ci)外,新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)集(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)要(yao)以場景思維和(he)重大工(gong)程設(she)計為牽引,推動(dong)(dong)全產業鏈工(gong)業化(hua)(hua)規模的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)關(guan)(guan)鍵技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)突(tu)破(po)(po)與應用,實(shi)現(xian)理論、技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)、裝備、軟技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)一(yi)體化(hua)(hua)驗證(zheng),促進(jin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)應基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)施系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)性革新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin),引領和(he)帶(dai)動(dong)(dong)全社會產業布局(ju)與發展。
二是(shi)推進(jin)(jin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)改革,加快實(shi)現(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)能力(li)(li)現(xian)代(dai)化(hua)。加快構(gou)建與(yu)新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統相匹配(pei)的治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi),推進(jin)(jin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)能力(li)(li)現(xian)代(dai)化(hua),就是(shi)要以(yi)安全(quan)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)夯(hang)實(shi)發展基(ji)礎、以(yi)規(gui)劃治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)優化(hua)演化(hua)路(lu)徑(jing)、以(yi)市場(chang)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)釋放行業活力(li)(li)、以(yi)碳治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)服務全(quan)面綠色轉型、以(yi)法治(zhi)(zhi)治(zhi)(zhi)理(li)保障良(liang)好發展環境(jing),實(shi)現(xian)規(gui)劃引領、科(ke)技為(wei)(wei)驅,市場(chang)配(pei)置、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價為(wei)(wei)基(ji),監(jian)管全(quan)域、安全(quan)為(wei)(wei)先,法治(zhi)(zhi)保障、平等為(wei)(wei)要,高質量推進(jin)(jin)構(gou)建新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統。
三是推(tui)進創(chuang)新(xin)鏈(lian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)人(ren)才鏈(lian)資金(jin)鏈(lian)深(shen)度融合,加快建設(she)現代化電力產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)體系(xi)。新(xin)型電力系(xi)統(tong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)將從以(yi)化石能(neng)源為(wei)底色,通過對(dui)價值形(xing)態(tai)、企(qi)業(ye)形(xing)態(tai)、循環形(xing)態(tai)和空(kong)間(jian)形(xing)態(tai)的全方位重(zhong)塑,演變為(wei)以(yi)新(xin)質生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)力為(wei)基礎(chu),以(yi)新(xin)能(neng)源為(wei)主體的新(xin)型電力系(xi)統(tong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian),在創(chuang)造和滿足高質量用能(neng)需求(qiu)的同時(shi),實現產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)水平全面(mian)躍(yue)遷,成為(wei)推(tui)動經(jing)濟社會發展的新(xin)引擎(qing)和新(xin)動能(neng)。