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概要：基于全壽命周期成本理論，計算了各類儲能裝置的成本和度電成本，研究表明抽水蓄能電站度電成本最低，其次是壓縮空氣儲能，電池類儲能度電成本最高，其中電池類儲能度電成本由低到高依次為鋰離子電池、液流電池、鈉硫電池和鉛酸電池。近幾年鋰離子電池成本下降較快，未來鋰離子電池成本進一步下降后，初步測算儲能年利用小時數能夠達到１５００ｈ以上，度電成本將低于０.５０元／（ｋＷ·ｈ）。

分析如下：

對幾種典型(xing)儲能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)的度電(dian)(dian)成本進(jin)行測算(suan)，比較各(ge)類儲能(neng)(neng)設備的經(jing)濟性，考(kao)慮的儲能(neng)(neng)設備包(bao)括抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)，壓縮空氣儲能(neng)(neng)、鉛(qian)酸電(dian)(dian)池、鈉(na)硫電(dian)(dian)池、液流電(dian)(dian)池、鋰(li)離子電(dian)(dian)池，其基本參數見表１。

表１儲能電站參數

以(yi)目(mu)前較為(wei)成(cheng)熟的(de)抽(chou)蓄電站為(wei)基準，儲(chu)能(neng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)按(an)１２００ＭＷ，儲(chu)能(neng)時長按(an)６ｈ，計(ji)(ji)算中(zhong)電池使用壽命暫按(an)儲(chu)能(neng)放電深度８０％情(qing)況下(xia)，１年循(xun)環３００次(ci)，液流電池循(xun)環次(ci)數(shu)達１２０００次(ci)以(yi)上，計(ji)(ji)算中(zhong)按(an)２０年計(ji)(ji)列。

儲能(neng)電站(zhan)投(tou)資(zi)如(ru)表２所示(shi)，儲能(neng)電站(zhan)度電成本測(ce)算結果見(jian)表３和圖(tu)１，可以看(kan)出：

（１）按上述參數計算，抽蓄電(dian)(dian)站的(de)度電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)最低，其(qi)次是壓縮空(kong)氣(qi)，電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)類(lei)儲(chu)能度電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)最高，其(qi)中電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)類(lei)儲(chu)能度電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)由低到高依次為鋰離子電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)、液(ye)流(liu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)、鈉(na)硫電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)和鉛酸電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)。

（２）若(ruo)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)站(zhan)的儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)利(li)用小時(shi)數達到１０００ｈ，抽(chou)蓄電(dian)站(zhan)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)低(di)于(yu)１元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)(yue)０．９３元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），壓縮空(kong)氣儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)約(yue)(yue)１．８５元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰(li)離(li)子(zi)電(dian)池儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)約(yue)(yue)２．０４元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）；若(ruo)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)站(zhan)的儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)利(li)用小時(shi)數達到２０００ｈ，抽(chou)蓄電(dian)站(zhan)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)低(di)于(yu)０．５元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)(yue)０．４６元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），壓縮空(kong)氣儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)低(di)于(yu)１元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)(yue)０．９２元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰(li)離(li)子(zi)電(dian)池儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)降低(di)至約(yue)(yue)１．０２元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）。

表２各類(lei)儲能電站的投資(zi)比較

表３各類儲能(neng)電站的年發電量和度電成本

圖１儲能電站度(du)電成本(ben)曲線

表４各類儲(chu)能電站的年發電量和(he)度(du)電成(cheng)本（敏(min)感性(xing)分析）

圖２儲能(neng)電站度電成本曲(qu)線（敏感性分析(xi)）

對除抽蓄電(dian)站(zhan)外(wai)的其他(ta)儲(chu)能(neng)型式相(xiang)關參數(shu)進行敏(min)感性分析，若未來壓縮(suo)空氣(qi)單(dan)位投資(zi)降低至與(yu)抽蓄電(dian)站(zhan)投資(zi)相(xiang)當，電(dian)能(neng)轉換效率提高至６５％；電(dian)池(chi)類(lei)儲(chu)能(neng)的單(dan)位投資(zi)降低５０％，鋰(li)離子電(dian)池(chi)循(xun)環壽(shou)命(ming)達到５０００次，儲(chu)能(neng)電(dian)站(zhan)的度電(dian)成本測算結果見(jian)表４和圖２。可以看出：

（１）按上(shang)述參數計(ji)算，抽水蓄能(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)和壓縮空氣的度電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)基本(ben)相(xiang)當，主要原因是壓縮空氣建設期(qi)較(jiao)短導(dao)致年(nian)費用較(jiao)低，電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)類儲能(neng)度電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)最(zui)高(gao)(gao)，其中電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)類儲能(neng)度電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)由(you)低到(dao)高(gao)(gao)依次為鋰離子電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)、液流(liu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)、鈉硫電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)和鉛(qian)酸(suan)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)。

（２）若儲(chu)能電(dian)(dian)(dian)站的儲(chu)能利(li)用小時數達(da)到１０００ｈ，壓(ya)(ya)縮空氣(qi)(qi)儲(chu)能度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本(ben)低(di)(di)(di)于１元(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約０．８８元(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰(li)離(li)子(zi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池儲(chu)能度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本(ben)約０．７９元(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）；若儲(chu)能電(dian)(dian)(dian)站的儲(chu)能利(li)用小時數達(da)到２０００ｈ，壓(ya)(ya)縮空氣(qi)(qi)儲(chu)能度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本(ben)低(di)(di)(di)于０．５元(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約０．４４元(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰(li)離(li)子(zi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池儲(chu)能度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本(ben)低(di)(di)(di)于０．５元(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約０．３９元(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）。

需要說(shuo)明(ming)的(de)(de)是(shi)，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)于(yu)不(bu)同場(chang)景(jing)，運用(yong)方式也(ye)(ye)不(bu)一樣(yang)，對于(yu)目(mu)前(qian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)較(jiao)多(duo)的(de)(de)用(yong)戶側(ce)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)來說(shuo)，由于(yu)負荷曲線基本(ben)(ben)固定，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)運行方式明(ming)確，每(mei)天可以(yi)按照基本(ben)(ben)相同策略運行，利(li)用(yong)效率比較(jiao)高，東部(bu)部(bu)分地區(qu)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)年利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時數在(zai)２０００ｈ左(zuo)右，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)度(du)(du)電(dian)成本(ben)(ben)相對較(jiao)低(di)，再加上峰谷電(dian)價差相對較(jiao)高，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)存在(zai)盈利(li)空間(jian)；但對于(yu)發電(dian)側(ce)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)與減少(shao)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源棄電(dian)場(chang)景(jing)，由于(yu)棄電(dian)不(bu)是(shi)每(mei)天都(dou)會發生，棄電(dian)大小(xiao)也(ye)(ye)不(bu)一樣(yang)，所(suo)以(yi)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)于(yu)此場(chang)景(jing)，利(li)率用(yong)明(ming)顯較(jiao)低(di)，初步(bu)測算，西北區(qu)域(yu)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)年利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時數在(zai)１０００ｈ左(zuo)右，所(suo)以(yi)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)度(du)(du)電(dian)成本(ben)(ben)明(ming)顯較(jiao)高，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)盈利(li)模式尚需進(jin)一步(bu)研究。