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目前(qian)，京津(jin)冀魯、蘇浙滬、華中東四(si)省等3個主要(yao)地區(qu)出現(xian)較為明顯的電(dian)力供需緊張問(wen)題，當前(qian)應(ying)盡快發揮已(yi)建成的跨省區(qu)輸電(dian)通(tong)道作用(yong)，保障電(dian)力供應(ying)。

隨著自身用電負荷的增(zeng)長(chang)及能源資源開發完畢(bi)，部分(fen)傳統外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)基地(di)將依靠北方以及西南的區(qu)外(wai)(wai)(wai)來電接續供應(ying)。未來跨(kua)省跨(kua)區(qu)輸電通道布局除(chu)了要穩(wen)定(ding)“西電東送(song)”外(wai)(wai)(wai)，還需增(zeng)加“北電南送(song)”。

近日，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃設計總院發布《中國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)發展報(bao)告2018》，報(bao)告預測2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)至(zhi)2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)，全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)形勢將全面趨緊(jin)(jin)。僅考(kao)慮(lv)目(mu)前(qian)已明確可投產的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源，在跨省(sheng)區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)流安排能夠(gou)落實的(de)前(qian)提(ti)下，河北、江(jiang)蘇、浙江(jiang)、安徽(hui)、湖北、江(jiang)西(xi)、廣(guang)東、廣(guang)西(xi)、河南(nan)(nan)、海南(nan)(nan)未(wei)來3年(nian)(nian)(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)持續偏(pian)緊(jin)(jin)或緊(jin)(jin)張。遼寧、山(shan)東、上(shang)海、福(fu)建、四(si)川、甘(gan)肅、云南(nan)(nan)、貴州未(wei)來3年(nian)(nian)(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)由寬(kuan)松或基(ji)本平(ping)衡(heng)轉為偏(pian)緊(jin)(jin)或緊(jin)(jin)張。

電(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃設(she)計總院(yuan)副(fu)院(yuan)長杜忠明表示，鑒于(yu)京津冀魯、蘇浙滬、華中東四省(sheng)（湖北、河南、湖南、江西）3個主要地區出現較為明顯的電(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)(xu)緊張問(wen)題，當前應盡快發揮已建成(cheng)的跨(kua)省(sheng)區輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)道作用。為保障電(dian)(dian)力(li)供應，2019年全國需(xu)(xu)要投產(chan)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)4000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右，同時還需(xu)(xu)要一定規模(mo)的應急調(diao)峰(feng)儲備電(dian)(dian)源。

由于(yu)我國(guo)(guo)能源和電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)負荷分配不均，一直以來，“西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送”成為維持電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需平衡(heng)的重要手段。目前，我國(guo)(guo)“西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送”規模已達(da)到(dao)2.4億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，形(xing)成了北、中(zhong)、南3個通道(dao)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)流向格局，其中(zhong)北通道(dao)7389萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，中(zhong)通道(dao)1.2億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，南通道(dao)4772萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。考慮目前已核準的跨省區輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)通道(dao)后，預(yu)計2021年西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送規模將達(da)到(dao)2.7億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。

經過20多年的(de)發(fa)展，“西電東(dong)送”輸電通道較好發(fa)揮了資源配置平(ping)臺(tai)作用(yong)，為經濟社會(hui)協調(diao)發(fa)展提(ti)供了強(qiang)勁支撐(cheng)。但從近年來(lai)的(de)利用(yong)來(lai)看(kan)，部分新投產跨省(sheng)跨區輸電通道送電規模(mo)未達預期(qi)，利用(yong)率有待提(ti)高。

部分電(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)基地還存(cun)在持(chi)(chi)續(xu)性(xing)不(bu)足(zu)的問題。報(bao)告指出(chu)，西南優質(zhi)水電(dian)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)已(yi)基本開(kai)(kai)發殆盡，后(hou)(hou)續(xu)水電(dian)開(kai)(kai)發難度不(bu)斷加大。預計四川(chuan)、云南在2025年(nian)左右電(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)能(neng)力(li)(li)達到峰值，2030年(nian)后(hou)(hou)電(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)能(neng)力(li)(li)將(jiang)(jiang)出(chu)現下降。西南地區水電(dian)外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)的可持(chi)(chi)續(xu)性(xing)問題較為(wei)突出(chu)。此外(wai)(wai)(wai)，貴州、安徽等傳統(tong)電(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)基地自(zi)(zi)身(shen)煤(mei)炭資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)(kai)發程度較高，近年(nian)來電(dian)煤(mei)供應逐(zhu)步趨緊，沒(mei)有(you)進一步擴大外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)的潛(qian)力(li)(li)。受多方面因素影(ying)響，自(zi)(zi)身(shen)電(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展潛(qian)力(li)(li)有(you)限(xian)，未來將(jiang)(jiang)逐(zhu)漸出(chu)現季節性(xing)缺口，外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)能(neng)力(li)(li)不(bu)足(zu)，外(wai)(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)(song)可持(chi)(chi)續(xu)性(xing)問題值得關注，需超前(qian)謀(mou)劃電(dian)力(li)(li)接續(xu)問題。

與此同(tong)時，部(bu)分(fen)輸(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)(dao)的(de)市(shi)(shi)場化(hua)體制(zhi)機制(zhi)尚不(bu)完善(shan)。報(bao)告稱，目前(qian)，一部(bu)分(fen)早期投產的(de)如(ru)三峽外(wai)送(song)(song)、溪洛渡外(wai)送(song)(song)、向家(jia)壩外(wai)送(song)(song)等跨(kua)省(sheng)(sheng)跨(kua)區(qu)輸(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)(dao)采取了(le)(le)國家(jia)計劃送(song)(song)受電(dian)(dian)(dian)模(mo)式，一部(bu)分(fen)如(ru)云(yun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)送(song)(song)粵(yue)、黔電(dian)(dian)(dian)送(song)(song)粵(yue)等輸(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)(dao)采取了(le)(le)簽訂中長期協議的(de)模(mo)式，另有一部(bu)分(fen)輸(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)(dao)參(can)與了(le)(le)年(nian)度臨時交易(yi)，部(bu)分(fen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量進入了(le)(le)市(shi)(shi)場化(hua)交易(yi)。總(zong)體來看，當前(qian)的(de)跨(kua)省(sheng)(sheng)跨(kua)區(qu)輸(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)(dao)交易(yi)模(mo)式較為混雜(za)，不(bu)利(li)于統一管(guan)理(li)。一方(fang)面(mian)，國家(jia)能源結(jie)構調整(zheng)戰略意圖無法保(bao)(bao)證；另一方(fang)面(mian)，輸(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)(dao)運行經濟性無法得(de)到(dao)保(bao)(bao)障，也不(bu)利(li)于送(song)(song)受兩(liang)端(duan)安排電(dian)(dian)(dian)源規劃布局(ju)，跨(kua)省(sheng)(sheng)跨(kua)區(qu)輸(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)(dao)市(shi)(shi)場化(hua)體制(zhi)機制(zhi)亟待完善(shan)。

為(wei)更好保(bao)障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)，杜忠明認(ren)為(wei)，一方面，北方的(de)內(nei)蒙(meng)古、陜北、隴東(dong)、新疆等綜合能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)基地，在滿足本地用電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)基礎(chu)上，仍(reng)具(ju)備增(zeng)加(jia)外送的(de)能(neng)(neng)力；另一方面，隨著我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)占終端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費比重的(de)大幅提升(sheng)，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求仍(reng)將保(bao)持增(zeng)長。但(dan)受(shou)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費總量及環(huan)保(bao)制(zhi)約(yue)，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)空間有限。在此背景下，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)中長期的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應保(bao)障(zhang)將更加(jia)依賴區(qu)外來電(dian)(dian)(dian)，“西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)送”發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)內(nei)生(sheng)動力依然強勁，跨省跨區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力資源(yuan)配置規模仍(reng)需(xu)進一步擴大。

當前，華中(zhong)東(dong)(dong)四省水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)資(zi)源開(kai)發殆盡(jin)，同時電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需求快速增(zeng)長(chang)，已由電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力送(song)(song)出地(di)區(qu)(qu)轉變為接受電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力地(di)區(qu)(qu)。貴州、安徽、四川、云南(nan)等傳(chuan)統外送(song)(song)基(ji)地(di)，隨(sui)著(zhu)自身用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)負荷的增(zeng)長(chang)及能(neng)源資(zi)源開(kai)發完畢(bi)，將依(yi)靠北方以及西(xi)南(nan)的區(qu)(qu)外來(lai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)接續。未(wei)來(lai)東(dong)(dong)部的山東(dong)(dong)、江蘇、浙江、廣東(dong)(dong)等省份仍將是受入(ru)外來(lai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的主要(yao)地(di)區(qu)(qu)。杜忠明表示，隨(sui)著(zhu)西(xi)南(nan)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)資(zi)源開(kai)發殆盡(jin)，其傳(chuan)統的輻射供能(neng)區(qu)(qu)域需尋找新的供能(neng)方向。未(wei)來(lai)跨(kua)省跨(kua)區(qu)(qu)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通道(dao)布局除了要(yao)穩定“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送(song)(song)”外，還需增(zeng)加“北電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)南(nan)送(song)(song)”，以適(shi)應我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力新格局。