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根據《能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)產和消費(fei)革命戰略（2016~2030）》與(yu)黨的(de)(de)十(shi)九大報告要求，“十(shi)四五(wu)”期(qi)間(jian)我國可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、天然氣和核能(neng)(neng)利(li)用將持續增(zeng)長，高碳化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)利(li)用大幅減(jian)少，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展的(de)(de)外(wai)部環(huan)境(jing)與(yu)“十(shi)三五(wu)”時期(qi)相比(bi)將面(mian)臨深(shen)刻的(de)(de)變化。因此(ci)，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)電(dian)(dian)力“十(shi)四五(wu)”規劃(hua)的(de)(de)側重(zhong)點應與(yu)“十(shi)三五(wu)”時期(qi)有所不同，更加注重(zhong)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)信(xin)息的(de)(de)深(shen)度融合、綜合能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統的(de)(de)建(jian)設運行、退役火電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)的(de)(de)綜合利(li)用、非(fei)水(shui)可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)面(mian)向用戶的(de)(de)直接(jie)消納、需求側資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)潛力的(de)(de)充分挖(wa)掘以(yi)(yi)及定量仿真對規劃(hua)決策的(de)(de)有力支(zhi)撐。為(wei)此(ci)，在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)電(dian)(dian)力“十(shi)四五(wu)”規劃(hua)工作中，需深(shen)入思考以(yi)(yi)下六(liu)個關鍵問題。

一、如何以數字革命驅動能源革命

習(xi)近平總(zong)書記(ji)于2014年提出了能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)戰(zhan)略，在(zai)過去的五(wu)年中，為實現建(jian)設清(qing)潔低碳、安全(quan)高效的能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體系(xi)目(mu)標，我國已在(zai)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供給(gei)側改(gai)革(ge)(ge)、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)市(shi)場化(hua)改(gai)革(ge)(ge)、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互聯(lian)網示范工(gong)程建(jian)設等方(fang)面開(kai)展了諸多(duo)工(gong)作，但(dan)從政策實施(shi)情(qing)況來看，目(mu)前能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)還未真正得(de)到有(you)效落實并且取得(de)預期效果。隨著科學技術進步(bu)，信(xin)(xin)息(xi)化(hua)、數(shu)字化(hua)、共(gong)享化(hua)將(jiang)成為能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)的發展趨(qu)勢，以互聯(lian)網信(xin)(xin)息(xi)技術創新(xin)為主(zhu)要方(fang)向的數(shu)字革(ge)(ge)命(ming)將(jiang)成為能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)的重要驅動力，因(yin)此如何將(jiang)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)與(yu)數(shu)字革(ge)(ge)命(ming)融合(he)，推動“互聯(lian)網+”智慧(hui)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)建(jian)設是能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)電力“十四五(wu)”規劃需要重點(dian)考慮的問題。

建議“十四五(wu)”期間(jian)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)能(neng)源(yuan)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)與(yu)信息通(tong)(tong)信技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)體系(xi)融合，鼓勵(li)能(neng)量路由器、能(neng)源(yuan)大數據等新(xin)(xin)興(xing)信息物(wu)理新(xin)(xin)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)發展和應(ying)(ying)用(yong)，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)能(neng)源(yuan)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)；以能(neng)源(yuan)互(hu)聯網建設為(wei)著(zhu)力點(dian)，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)“云(yun)大物(wu)移智(zhi)”等現(xian)(xian)代信息技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)和先進(jin)通(tong)(tong)信技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)在系(xi)統(tong)運行(xing)控(kong)制(zhi)、終端用(yong)戶綜合能(neng)源(yuan)服務(wu)等方面的(de)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)，促進(jin)能(neng)源(yuan)信息雙(shuang)向流動(dong)(dong)和開放共享，實現(xian)(xian)各類資(zi)源(yuan)靈活匯聚、系(xi)統(tong)運行(xing)智(zhi)能(neng)決策、用(yong)戶用(yong)能(neng)便(bian)捷(jie)高效，支(zhi)撐能(neng)源(yuan)生產與(yu)消(xiao)費(fei)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)；以區塊鏈等交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)信息技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)為(wei)支(zhi)撐，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)能(neng)源(yuan)靈活自主(zhu)微(wei)平衡交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)，實現(xian)(xian)分(fen)布式能(neng)源(yuan)、分(fen)布式儲能(neng)主(zhu)體與(yu)工業大用(yong)戶及個(ge)人、家庭級微(wei)用(yong)能(neng)主(zhu)體間(jian)的(de)點(dian)對點(dian)實時自主(zhu)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)，同時鼓勵(li)創新(xin)(xin)綠色(se)能(neng)源(yuan)認證(zheng)、綠色(se)貨幣(bi)、綠色(se)證(zheng)書(shu)等清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)商業模式，驅動(dong)(dong)能(neng)源(yuan)體制(zhi)機制(zhi)革(ge)(ge)命(ming)。

二、如何依托綜合能源系統開展綜合能源服務

當前我國以單(dan)一系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)縱向延伸(shen)為主的(de)傳統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)發展模式已不能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)滿足能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革命(ming)戰(zhan)略在(zai)提(ti)(ti)高能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)效(xiao)(xiao)率、保(bao)障(zhang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全、促進新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納和推動環(huan)境保(bao)護等方面的(de)要求，亟需(xu)通過構(gou)建綜合(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)打通電、熱、氣多(duo)種能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)子系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)間的(de)技術壁(bi)壘(lei)、體制壁(bi)壘(lei)和市場(chang)壁(bi)壘(lei)，促進多(duo)種能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互補互濟和多(duo)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)協調優化，在(zai)保(bao)障(zhang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全的(de)基礎上推動能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)和新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納。因此，如何圍繞“兩(liang)高三低”目標(biao)，即實(shi)現系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)綜合(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)(xiao)的(de)提(ti)(ti)高、系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)運行(xing)可(ke)靠性的(de)提(ti)(ti)高、用戶用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)成本的(de)降(jiang)低、系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)碳排(pai)放的(de)降(jiang)低和系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)其他污染物排(pai)放的(de)降(jiang)低，合(he)理規劃(hua)建設與(yu)運行(xing)綜合(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)、開展綜合(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服務是能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)電力“十四五(wu)”規劃(hua)需(xu)要重點考慮(lv)的(de)問題。

建議“十四五”期間進(jin)一(yi)步推(tui)進(jin)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)端基地及(ji)(ji)終端消費綜(zong)(zong)合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)規劃建設，利(li)(li)用先進(jin)的(de)物理信息技術(shu)和(he)創新管理模(mo)式(shi)，配置冷熱電(dian)三聯(lian)供、電(dian)制(zhi)氫、儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)等能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉換與(yu)儲存設備，推(tui)進(jin)以電(dian)為核心的(de)多能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)之間的(de)協調規劃、優化運(yun)行、協同管理、交互響(xiang)應和(he)互補互濟，并建立多異質能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)之間的(de)價值(zhi)轉換媒(mei)介，形成統(tong)一(yi)的(de)市場價值(zhi)衡量標準，促進(jin)西部(bu)可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基地的(de)電(dian)力外送(song)與(yu)就地轉化利(li)(li)用，以及(ji)(ji)中(zhong)東部(bu)分(fen)布式(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)利(li)(li)用。同時建議推(tui)動國(guo)家電(dian)網、南方電(dian)網等國(guo)有供電(dian)企業(ye)將(jiang)綜(zong)(zong)合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服務作為主營業(ye)務之一(yi)，向綜(zong)(zong)合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服務商轉型，通過PPP、BOT、BT等模(mo)式(shi)引入其他主體、資本共同開(kai)(kai)展(zhan)綜(zong)(zong)合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服務相關業(ye)務，以信息共享(xiang)、技術(shu)共享(xiang)、價值(zhi)共享(xiang)的(de)方式(shi)實現綜(zong)(zong)合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服務快速、有效落地。

三、如何綜合利用退役火電機組

在過去的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)中，以(yi)建設(she)大容量、高(gao)參數(shu)、低消耗、少排(pai)放機組(zu)代(dai)替關(guan)停(ting)小火(huo)電(dian)機組(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“以(yi)大代(dai)小”策(ce)(ce)略作為淘汰火(huo)電(dian)落后產能(neng)(neng)、減少污染物排(pai)放的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)手段被(bei)廣(guang)泛推行。然而(er)“以(yi)大代(dai)小”政策(ce)(ce)雖然提高(gao)了(le)火(huo)電(dian)發電(dian)效(xiao)率，卻(que)無法緩解(jie)我(wo)國(guo)煤電(dian)產能(neng)(neng)過剩的(de)(de)(de)(de)問題，2018年我(wo)國(guo)火(huo)電(dian)平(ping)(ping)均利(li)用小時數(shu)僅為4361小時，有超過20個省(sheng)份的(de)(de)(de)(de)火(huo)電(dian)平(ping)(ping)均利(li)用小時數(shu)不足4000小時。隨(sui)著能(neng)(neng)源結構的(de)(de)(de)(de)調(diao)整與(yu)可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源的(de)(de)(de)(de)大規(gui)(gui)模發展(zhan)，“十四五”期間煤電(dian)機組(zu)生(sheng)存空間將持續被(bei)壓縮，供給側改革任務艱(jian)巨，一大批(pi)火(huo)電(dian)機組(zu)面臨退(tui)役。因此，如何妥善(shan)處理退(tui)役火(huo)電(dian)、有效(xiao)利(li)用退(tui)役機組(zu)設(she)備與(yu)廠址是能(neng)(neng)源與(yu)電(dian)力“十四五”規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)需要(yao)重(zhong)點考慮的(de)(de)(de)(de)問題。

建(jian)議“十四五”期間(jian)推進(jin)通過退役火(huo)電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)與原有廠址再建(jian)開展(zhan)綜合(he)能源(yuan)供(gong)應(ying)的(de)(de)方式來解(jie)決火(huo)電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)退役問題。鼓勵落后產能小火(huo)電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)開展(zhan)低(di)熱(re)值煤綜合(he)利用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)、生(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)以及燃煤耦(ou)合(he)生(sheng)(sheng)物質(zhi)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)，增加不需要調峰調頻調壓等配套調節措施(shi)的(de)(de)優質(zhi)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)供(gong)應(ying)，促進(jin)煤電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)低(di)碳(tan)清潔發(fa)展(zhan)；鼓勵在靠近負(fu)荷區(qu)域的(de)(de)退役火(huo)電(dian)(dian)原廠址上新建(jian)包括(kuo)分布式冷(leng)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)三聯供(gong)燃氣機組(zu)、分布式光伏、儲能、電(dian)(dian)制(zhi)氫等在內(nei)的(de)(de)綜合(he)能源(yuan)系統，為(wei)用戶提供(gong)電(dian)(dian)、熱(re)、氣、冷(leng)等多種能源(yuan)的(de)(de)綜合(he)供(gong)應(ying)。

四、如何實現非水可再生能源直接面對用戶供應

當前我國用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)側(ce)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)使(shi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)較低(di)、負(fu)荷(he)(he)(he)靈活響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)出力(li)(li)波動的(de)潛力(li)(li)未(wei)被充分(fen)挖掘，可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需(xu)(xu)難以匹(pi)配(pei)(pei)是造成大規模可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消納(na)困難的(de)關鍵原(yuan)因。隨著(zhu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)側(ce)的(de)補貼退坡和(he)平價上網，以風(feng)電(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)為主的(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)全額消納(na)需(xu)(xu)要考(kao)(kao)慮面對(dui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)的(de)直接供應(ying)(ying)，一方面發(fa)電(dian)(dian)側(ce)應(ying)(ying)在現(xian)有西(xi)北可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基地(di)遠距離輸(shu)送的(de)基礎上，大力(li)(li)發(fa)展中東部負(fu)荷(he)(he)(he)中心的(de)分(fen)布式可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，另一方面用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)側(ce)應(ying)(ying)著(zhu)力(li)(li)培養負(fu)荷(he)(he)(he)調節(jie)靈活、用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)模式匹(pi)配(pei)(pei)的(de)綠色(se)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消費用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)，實現(xian)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供需(xu)(xu)平衡(heng)。因此，如何激(ji)發(fa)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)側(ce)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)使(shi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)、實現(xian)非水可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)直接面對(dui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶(hu)供應(ying)(ying)，是能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)“十四五”規劃(hua)需(xu)(xu)要重(zhong)點考(kao)(kao)慮的(de)問題。

建議“十(shi)四五”期(qi)間將(jiang)國(guo)家可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)政(zheng)策重點由(you)長(chang)期(qi)以來的(de)(de)供應(ying)側法律政(zheng)策支持(chi)逐漸轉向需求側，將(jiang)現階段發電(dian)(dian)(dian)側補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)模式(shi)改(gai)為用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶側補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)，以激發用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶使(shi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)的(de)(de)積極性，鼓(gu)勵用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶通過技術(shu)改(gai)造、配置儲能(neng)(neng)、分布式(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)等方式(shi)實(shi)現對可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)出力(li)的(de)(de)靈活(huo)響(xiang)應(ying)與(yu)直接消納。建議用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶側可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)由(you)容量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)兩部分構成，其中(zhong)，容量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)按照用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶承諾(nuo)全(quan)部使(shi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、且可(ke)隨可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)出力(li)情況靈活(huo)調節的(de)(de)負荷水平(ping)按月或一次性補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)按照用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶實(shi)際使(shi)用(yong)(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)進行補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)。

五、如何充分發揮需求響應資源作用

當前(qian)國(guo)際上(shang)許多國(guo)家已從能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)戰略(lve)高(gao)度(du)將需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)置(zhi)于(yu)與(yu)發電(dian)(dian)側資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)同等(deng)甚至優先的(de)地位(wei)，需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側彈性負荷、分(fen)布式電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)、電(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)可(ke)通過(guo)對價(jia)(jia)格信號(hao)的(de)響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)實(shi)現(xian)削峰(feng)填谷(gu)、追蹤可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)出力(li)(li)(li)(li)、為系統(tong)提供調(diao)頻輔助服(fu)務等(deng)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)，與(yu)供應(ying)(ying)側深(shen)度(du)調(diao)峰(feng)、配置(zhi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)系統(tong)調(diao)節方(fang)式相比(bi)成(cheng)本(ben)更低、效(xiao)果更好，如(ru)與(yu)熱電(dian)(dian)廠加裝(zhuang)電(dian)(dian)蓄熱鍋爐(lu)相比(bi)，化工(gong)生產企業(ye)通過(guo)技術(shu)改造參(can)與(yu)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)可(ke)節約(yue)調(diao)峰(feng)成(cheng)本(ben)約(yue)0.05元/千瓦時(shi)。我國(guo)雖(sui)于(yu)2012年開始開展了一系列電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側管(guan)理(li)城市綜合試點，“十(shi)三(san)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)規劃中也有提到大力(li)(li)(li)(li)提高(gao)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)，但由于(yu)目前(qian)市場價(jia)(jia)格激(ji)勵機(ji)制尚(shang)未健(jian)全，需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)方(fang)面(mian)的(de)實(shi)質(zhi)性工(gong)作(zuo)并(bing)(bing)不多，實(shi)施效(xiao)果也并(bing)(bing)不盡如(ru)人意(yi)，需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)需(xu)(xu)在“十(shi)四五(wu)”期(qi)間進一步挖掘。因此，如(ru)何充分(fen)發揮需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)(ying)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)在提升(sheng)系統(tong)可(ke)靠性、促進可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納方(fang)面(mian)的(de)應(ying)(ying)有作(zuo)用，是(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)“十(shi)四五(wu)”規劃需(xu)(xu)重點考慮的(de)問題(ti)。

建(jian)(jian)議(yi)“十(shi)四五”期間從加快構建(jian)(jian)市(shi)(shi)場化電(dian)(dian)價機(ji)制、建(jian)(jian)設(she)以需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)為(wei)重點的(de)泛在電(dian)(dian)力物聯網兩個方面支持需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)揮其應(ying)有的(de)作用(yong)。一方面，加快電(dian)(dian)力現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)場與輔(fu)助服務市(shi)(shi)場建(jian)(jian)設(she)步伐(fa)，以可反映電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)情(qing)況的(de)實(shi)時(shi)電(dian)(dian)價信(xin)(xin)號激發(fa)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)潛力；另一方面，通過廣泛部署用(yong)戶信(xin)(xin)息(xi)、電(dian)(dian)網信(xin)(xin)息(xi)與發(fa)電(dian)(dian)信(xin)(xin)息(xi)等(deng)數據采集(ji)終端，建(jian)(jian)設(she)泛在電(dian)(dian)力物聯網，打破源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)—網—荷—儲數據壁壘，整合系統(tong)運行(xing)、市(shi)(shi)場交易和用(yong)戶用(yong)電(dian)(dian)數據，提高需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)大數據分析能力，實(shi)現(xian)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)響(xiang)應(ying)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)智能調控。

六、如何以規劃仿真支撐科學決策

借助于(yu)由數學(xue)模(mo)型和(he)算法支撐(cheng)的(de)(de)仿(fang)(fang)(fang)真(zhen)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)對能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)關鍵問(wen)題(ti)進行(xing)定量(liang)化仿(fang)(fang)(fang)真(zhen)是(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)前期(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)重要工作，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)在仿(fang)(fang)(fang)真(zhen)結果的(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)礎上(shang)研究決定相(xiang)關規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)方案以(yi)及應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)采取(qu)的(de)(de)相(xiang)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)配套政(zheng)策。如在“十四五”期(qi)(qi)間，我國集(ji)中式(shi)(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)大規(gui)(gui)模(mo)生(sheng)(sheng)產及遠距(ju)離(li)傳輸需與(yu)(yu)分布(bu)式(shi)(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)就地(di)生(sheng)(sheng)產消納協調發展，不同地(di)區的(de)(de)集(ji)中式(shi)(shi)與(yu)(yu)分布(bu)式(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)配置比例與(yu)(yu)建設規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)均應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)通過仿(fang)(fang)(fang)真(zhen)計算確定。過去的(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)雖一(yi)直秉承以(yi)定量(liang)化仿(fang)(fang)(fang)真(zhen)計算為(wei)基(ji)(ji)礎的(de)(de)理念(nian)，但受制于(yu)模(mo)型、算法水(shui)平及數據來源(yuan)，未能(neng)(neng)將復雜能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)仿(fang)(fang)(fang)真(zhen)落到實處。然而，隨(sui)著“云(yun)大物(wu)移(yi)智”等信(xin)息化技術、與(yu)(yu)泛在物(wu)聯網技術高速(su)發展，目前已具備(bei)復雜能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)建模(mo)與(yu)(yu)求解條件，因(yin)此如何開展能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)仿(fang)(fang)(fang)真(zhen)、支撐(cheng)科學(xue)決策是(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)與(yu)(yu)電力“十四五”規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)前期(qi)(qi)需重點考慮的(de)(de)問(wen)題(ti)。

建議(yi)能源(yuan)與電力“十四五”規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)工作前期推動高校、科研機構等(deng)開發涵蓋(gai)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)、運行、效(xiao)益評價在內的我國能源(yuan)系統仿(fang)(fang)真平臺，針對可再(zai)生能源(yuan)開發布局、新增火電容量、用戶側可再(zai)生能源(yuan)消(xiao)納補貼(tie)水平等(deng)能源(yuan)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)關(guan)鍵(jian)問題(ti)進行仿(fang)(fang)真計(ji)算，從經(jing)濟效(xiao)益、環境效(xiao)益、社會效(xiao)益等(deng)維度綜合(he)評價規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)方案與擬出臺政策在不同(tong)情景下的實施(shi)效(xiao)果，為(wei)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)方案的比選與科學決(jue)策提供有力支撐。