2014年(nian)6月(yue)13日(ri),習近平總書記(ji)提出(chu)“四(si)個革命、一個合作”能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全新(xin)戰(zhan)(zhan)略,為(wei)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)指明了(le)前(qian)進(jin)方向(xiang),為(wei)更好地(di)保障(zhang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全提供(gong)了(le)根本遵循。大(da)(da)力(li)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)是保障(zhang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全、破解發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)制約的(de)必(bi)由之路,是我(wo)(wo)國(guo)落(luo)實(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全新(xin)戰(zhan)(zhan)略的(de)重要(yao)實(shi)踐。中共(gong)中央政治(zhi)局2月(yue)29日(ri)下午就新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)技術與我(wo)(wo)國(guo)的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全進(jin)行(xing)第十二次集體學(xue)習。中共(gong)中央總書記(ji)習近平在(zai)主持(chi)學(xue)習時強(qiang)調,能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全事關經濟社會發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)全局。應對需求壓力(li)巨(ju)大(da)(da)、供(gong)給制約較多、綠色(se)低碳轉型任(ren)務(wu)艱巨(ju)等(deng)挑戰(zhan)(zhan)的(de)出(chu)路就是大(da)(da)力(li)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。我(wo)(wo)國(guo)風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)豐(feng)富,發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)潛力(li)巨(ju)大(da)(da),新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)已經具備了(le)良好基礎,要(yao)順勢而為(wei)、乘(cheng)勢而上(shang),以(yi)更大(da)(da)力(li)度推動我(wo)(wo)國(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高質量發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan),為(wei)中國(guo)式現(xian)代化(hua)建設提供(gong)安(an)全可靠的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)保障(zhang),為(wei)共(gong)建清潔美麗(li)的(de)世(shi)界作出(chu)更大(da)(da)貢獻。
全面進入規模化發展階段
十年來,我國新(xin)能(neng)源發展(zhan)成(cheng)(cheng)績舉世矚目,建(jian)成(cheng)(cheng)了世界上最(zui)大的(de)清潔電(dian)(dian)力(li)供應體系,國內(nei)裝機規(gui)模連(lian)續多(duo)年穩居世界第一(yi);多(duo)項新(xin)能(neng)源技術和裝備制造水平(ping)全球領先(xian),新(xin)能(neng)源汽(qi)車、鋰電(dian)(dian)池光伏產品已在國際(ji)市場形成(cheng)(cheng)強大競(jing)爭力(li),成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)出口“新(xin)三樣”。
一是開發(fa)利(li)用規(gui)模不斷擴大。過去十(shi)年,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)增裝機(ji)9.6億(yi)千瓦,年均(jun)增長超過9000萬千瓦,新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)逐漸成為新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)主體。2023年,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)增裝機(ji)2.9億(yi)千瓦,相(xiang)當于美國(guo)(guo)(guo)累計新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)裝機(ji)規(gui)模,約(yue)占(zhan)全(quan)球新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)增新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)裝機(ji)規(gui)模的63%。截至2023年年底,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)達10.5億(yi)千瓦,占(zhan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)總(zong)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)的36%,全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)26個省(sheng)份的新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)已經成為本省(sheng)第一、第二大電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)。
二是新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源利用率持(chi)續(xu)(xu)提(ti)(ti)升。過(guo)去十(shi)年,我(wo)國(guo)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)提(ti)(ti)升1.3萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時,年均提(ti)(ti)升超過(guo)1300億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時。2023年,新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.5萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時,已(yi)超過(guo)全(quan)國(guo)城鄉居民生活用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang),占(zhan)總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)15.8%,進入國(guo)際能(neng)(neng)源署等機構研判的(de)(de)高比(bi)例新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源階(jie)段。2023年,我(wo)國(guo)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源利用率達(da)到97.6%,繼續(xu)(xu)保持(chi)較高的(de)(de)利用水平。
三(san)是結(jie)構形(xing)態(tai)布局日趨合理。過去十(shi)年,我國(guo)新(xin)能源發(fa)展形(xing)成了(le)集中式(shi)與分布式(shi)并(bing)舉(ju)(ju)、就地(di)消納與外送消納并(bing)舉(ju)(ju)、單(dan)品(pin)種開發(fa)與多品(pin)種互補并(bing)舉(ju)(ju)、單(dan)一(yi)場(chang)景與綜合場(chang)景并(bing)舉(ju)(ju)、陸上風電(dian)向海上風電(dian)延伸的(de)新(xin)格局。十(shi)年來,我國(guo)新(xin)能源裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)結(jie)構以風電(dian)為主(zhu)轉變為風光(guang)齊驅、光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)為主(zhu),光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)在(zai)新(xin)能源中的(de)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)由(you)(you)17%提(ti)高到58%;分布式(shi)光(guang)伏發(fa)展加(jia)力,在(zai)光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)中的(de)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)從17%提(ti)高到42%;區域(yu)布局優(you)化,“三(san)北”地(di)區新(xin)能源裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)比(bi)例由(you)(you)69%降至51%。
青海(hai)海(hai)南藏(zang)族自治(zhi)州千萬千瓦級(ji)可再生能(neng)源基地(di)光伏發電園區(qu)。(王國棟/攝(she))
四是新能源產(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈體(ti)系完備。過去十年,我(wo)國光(guang)伏全(quan)(quan)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈實現(xian)(xian)全(quan)(quan)球領跑,風電全(quan)(quan)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈具有較(jiao)強國際(ji)競爭(zheng)力。在(zai)光(guang)伏領域,從多晶硅到光(guang)伏逆變(bian)器均實現(xian)(xian)獨立自主研發與生(sheng)產(chan)(chan),在(zai)制造業(ye)規模(mo)、產(chan)(chan)業(ye)化(hua)(hua)技(ji)術水(shui)平、應用市場拓展、產(chan)(chan)業(ye)體(ti)系建設(she)等方面均居世界前列。在(zai)風電領域,掌握(wo)風電機(ji)組大型化(hua)(hua)、平臺化(hua)(hua)、模(mo)塊化(hua)(hua)、智(zhi)能化(hua)(hua)研發設(she)計技(ji)術,主要零部(bu)件國產(chan)(chan)化(hua)(hua)率已達(da)95%。
五是市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)消(xiao)納(na)成(cheng)效突出(chu)。過(guo)去十年(nian),新(xin)能(neng)源消(xiao)納(na)由“電(dian)(dian)網企(qi)業(ye)保障性優先收購(gou)—電(dian)(dian)網企(qi)業(ye)與發電(dian)(dian)企(qi)業(ye)結算—電(dian)(dian)網企(qi)業(ye)轉(zhuan)付國家補貼”的(de)統購(gou)統銷模式(shi)逐步轉(zhuan)變為(wei)市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)交(jiao)易消(xiao)納(na)模式(shi)。2023年(nian),我國新(xin)能(neng)源市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)量(liang)在新(xin)能(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)中的(de)占比達到47.3%,電(dian)(dian)力中長(chang)期(qi)市場(chang)(chang)、現(xian)貨市場(chang)(chang)、輔助服(fu)務市場(chang)(chang)等發揮重要作用。
六是為全球碳減排(pai)作出貢獻(xian)。過去十年(nian),我國(guo)生(sheng)產(chan)的光伏組件、風力發電機等關鍵(jian)零部件占全球市場(chang)份額達(da)到70%。2022年(nian),我國(guo)新(xin)能源(yuan)產(chan)品出口為其他國(guo)家減排(pai)二氧(yang)化碳5.73億(yi)噸,約占全球同期可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)折算(suan)碳減排(pai)量的8%,已(yi)成為全球應對氣(qi)候變化的積極參與者(zhe)和重要(yao)貢獻(xian)者(zhe)。
六個方面深度分析新能源高質量發展
新能源(yuan)高(gao)質量(liang)發(fa)展要著眼(yan)于我國(guo)能源(yuan)安(an)全這個“國(guo)之大(da)者”,堅持問題導向(xiang)和系(xi)統觀念,統籌(chou)發(fa)展與安(an)全,加強頂(ding)層設計(ji)、做好統籌(chou)兼顧。
一是供電(dian)(dian)(dian)可(ke)保(bao)障。堅持(chi)安全(quan)(quan)底(di)線,新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)應以(yi)確(que)保(bao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應安全(quan)(quan)和(he)(he)系(xi)統運行安全(quan)(quan)為前(qian)提,著(zhu)力(li)(li)構建(jian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統。新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)出力(li)(li)波動性與不確(que)定性導(dao)致(zhi)其參與系(xi)統平(ping)衡的有(you)效容(rong)量(liang)遠低于(yu)常規電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan),供應保(bao)障能(neng)力(li)(li)偏低且(qie)不穩(wen)定。新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)大(da)量(liang)替代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)開機導(dao)致(zhi)系(xi)統慣量(liang)和(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)壓支撐能(neng)力(li)(li)持(chi)續下降(jiang),系(xi)統穩(wen)定基礎不斷(duan)削弱。隨著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)占(zhan)比(bi)提升(sheng),需要立足整個(ge)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統,不斷(duan)提高新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)支撐保(bao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)保(bao)穩(wen)能(neng)力(li)(li)。
二(er)是“雙碳”可實現(xian)(xian)。更大力(li)度發(fa)(fa)(fa)展新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)是實現(xian)(xian)“雙碳”目標、踐行應(ying)對(dui)氣候變化(hua)自主貢(gong)獻承(cheng)諾(nuo)的(de)主導力(li)量(liang)是規劃建設新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體(ti)系的(de)關鍵(jian)環節。要在保持較高利用水平的(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上,持續(xu)提升新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)和電力(li)消(xiao)費中的(de)比重,實現(xian)(xian)對(dui)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)加速(su)替代。未來相當長時(shi)期內,國(guo)內新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)保持年(nian)均投產2億~3億千瓦(wa)有望(wang)成為常(chang)態,繼續(xu)加速(su)替代化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電,進而逐(zhu)步實現(xian)(xian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝機從非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)第一到新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)裝機第一的(de)轉變,逐(zhu)步實現(xian)(xian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電量(liang)從火電第一到非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)第一最終到新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)第一的(de)轉變。
三是經(jing)濟(ji)可承受。新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)包括本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)體發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)和系(xi)統成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben),講新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)必須(xu)講兩者總和的(de)經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)。立足經(jing)濟(ji)社(she)會(hui)全局發展新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),既要促(cu)進能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)綠色(se)低碳轉型,又要有效控制(zhi)系(xi)統成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)、促(cu)進經(jing)濟(ji)社(she)會(hui)高(gao)質量發展。客(ke)觀上(shang),目前(qian)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)體發電(dian)(dian)已經(jing)或將實現上(shang)網側(ce)平價,但(dan)隨著(zhu)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)比重(zhong)上(shang)升,新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納帶來的(de)系(xi)統成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)將大幅升高(gao),成(cheng)為影響電(dian)(dian)力供應成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)的(de)重(zhong)要因素。按照新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)量滲透(tou)率提(ti)升至30%測算,我國電(dian)(dian)力供應成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(ben)(ben)將提(ti)高(gao)約10%。
四是發(fa)(fa)展可持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)。關注(zhu)投資(zi)(zi)可持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)、環(huan)(huan)境(jing)可持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)、關鍵礦(kuang)物(wu)(wu)(wu)質(zhi)供(gong)應可持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)等(deng)問題。投資(zi)(zi)可持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)就(jiu)是要(yao)保障新能源企業(ye)獲得(de)合理(li)投資(zi)(zi)收(shou)益,行(xing)業(ye)保持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)健康(kang)發(fa)(fa)展。環(huan)(huan)境(jing)可持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)就(jiu)是要(yao)加強對(dui)新能源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)設(she)備(bei)的全生命周期管理(li),避免(mian)因回收(shou)不當等(deng)對(dui)水體(ti)和土壤造成環(huan)(huan)境(jing)污(wu)染(ran)。關鍵礦(kuang)物(wu)(wu)(wu)質(zhi)供(gong)應可持(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)(chi)續(xu)就(jiu)是要(yao)保障鋰、鈷(gu)、鎳等(deng)礦(kuang)物(wu)(wu)(wu)原(yuan)料滿足發(fa)(fa)電(dian)設(she)備(bei)生產(chan)制造需(xu)求(qiu)。
五是產業(ye)鏈(lian)可延伸。實(shi)踐證明,更(geng)大力(li)度發展新(xin)(xin)能源,必然激發技(ji)術創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)和成(cheng)(cheng)長創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)人(ren)才,培育壯(zhuang)大新(xin)(xin)能源產業(ye)鏈(lian)供應鏈(lian),推進創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)鏈(lian)、產業(ye)鏈(lian)、資(zi)(zi)金鏈(lian)、人(ren)才鏈(lian)深度融(rong)合(he),進而促(cu)進經濟(ji)社會高(gao)質量(liang)發展。要聚焦(jiao)科(ke)技(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)果轉化和產業(ye)化水平(ping)提升,構建(jian)多(duo)元化的創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)資(zi)(zi)金服(fu)務平(ping)臺,加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)培育優(you)質新(xin)(xin)能源企(qi)業(ye)以及一流創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)團隊,加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)形成(cheng)(cheng)新(xin)(xin)質生產力(li)。
六是治(zhi)理法治(zhi)化。我國新(xin)能源(yuan)發(fa)展已經從政(zheng)策驅(qu)動(dong)、補貼支(zhi)撐(cheng)進入(ru)市場驅(qu)動(dong)、平(ping)價低價的發(fa)展新(xin)階(jie)段,需要(yao)(yao)處理好政(zheng)府與市場兩者關系,推(tui)動(dong)有(you)效市場和(he)有(you)為政(zheng)府更好結(jie)合,既要(yao)(yao)推(tui)進統籌(chou)戰略規劃,實施科學的行業(ye)監(jian)管(guan)、安全(quan)監(jian)管(guan)和(he)市場監(jian)管(guan),健全(quan)科學合理的市場機(ji)制(zhi)、電價機(ji)制(zhi)和(he)法治(zhi)體系,也要(yao)(yao)深化市場化改革,充分發(fa)揮市場在資(zi)源(yuan)配置中(zhong)的決(jue)定性作用。
加快建設以新能源為主體的新型電力系統
深化(hua)實施能(neng)(neng)源安(an)全新(xin)戰略,需(xu)要更大(da)力(li)度推動(dong)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源高(gao)(gao)質量發(fa)展,要加強科(ke)技驅動(dong)、市場(chang)帶動(dong)、政策聯動(dong),加快構(gou)建清潔(jie)低碳、安(an)全充裕、經濟高(gao)(gao)效供需(xu)協同、靈活智能(neng)(neng)的新(xin)型電力(li)系統,為推進(jin)中國式現代化(hua)提(ti)供能(neng)(neng)源電力(li)支撐。
一是堅持問題導向,保(bao)(bao)持戰略消醒。新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)占比(bi)(bi)快(kuai)速增(zeng)(zeng)長帶(dai)來電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)電(dian)量(liang)平衡(heng)特(te)別是高峰(feng)低(di)谷時(shi)(shi)段難度(du)持續(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia),如某地(di)區度(du)夏度(du)冬(dong)期間,早(zao)峰(feng)時(shi)(shi)段風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)、光(guang)伏(fu)保(bao)(bao)證出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)(li)分別僅(jin)(jin)為4%、11%;晚峰(feng)期間風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)保(bao)(bao)證出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)(li)雖提(ti)升至9%,但光(guang)伏(fu)出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)(li)基(ji)本(ben)為零。極(ji)端天(tian)氣(qi)發(fa)(fa)生頻次、影響范圍和強度(du)不斷增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia),極(ji)易導致一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)供應受限、電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系統運行環(huan)境惡化、用能(neng)(neng)(neng)需求激增(zeng)(zeng),如近年(nian)來發(fa)(fa)生的(de)極(ji)熱無風(feng)(feng)(feng)、持續(xu)陰雨、嚴寒冰雪等加(jia)大(da)了電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)保(bao)(bao)供的(de)難度(du),當連(lian)續(xu)多(duo)天(tian)出(chu)(chu)現無光(guang)、無風(feng)(feng)(feng)氣(qi)象條件時(shi)(shi),難以依靠新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)滿足電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)供應。與歐美國(guo)家相比(bi)(bi),我國(guo)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系統特(te)別是電(dian)源(yuan)側的(de)靈活(huo)調(diao)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)嚴重偏低(di),難以支撐新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)占比(bi)(bi)逐漸(jian)提(ti)高的(de)新(xin)型電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系統發(fa)(fa)展,截至2023年(nian)年(nian)底(di),我國(guo)抽(chou)水蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)、燃氣(qi)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)等靈活(huo)調(diao)節(jie)(jie)電(dian)源(yuan)裝機占比(bi)(bi)僅(jin)(jin)為7%,而國(guo)外部分新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)比(bi)(bi)例較高的(de)國(guo)家靈活(huo)節(jie)(jie)電(dian)源(yuan)裝機占比(bi)(bi)超過25%。
二(er)是(shi)(shi)堅持自主創新(xin)(xin),統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)兼(jian)顧發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)建(jian)設作(zuo)為極其(qi)復雜艱(jian)巨的(de)(de)經(jing)濟社會環(huan)境工程(cheng),需要(yao)堅持問題導向和(he)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)觀(guan)念(nian),統(tong)(tong)好安(an)(an)全、綠色、經(jing)濟、共享四方(fang)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi),積極有序推(tui)進“源(yuan)網荷(he)儲(chu)碳(tan)數(shu)智治鏈”融合協(xie)同發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。源(yuan)網荷(he)儲(chu)是(shi)(shi)其(qi)物理內核,可以簡(jian)稱為“電(dian)(dian)”;碳(tan)即(ji)節(jie)能降(jiang)碳(tan)去污,是(shi)(shi)其(qi)協(xie)同融合的(de)(de)重要(yao)目標或重要(yao)約束條(tiao)件,電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)源(yuan)網荷(he)儲(chu)各環(huan)節(jie)各方(fang)面必須在確保電(dian)(dian)力(li)供應安(an)(an)全的(de)(de)前提下(xia)實現綠色發(fa)(fa)(fa)展低碳(tan)轉型(xing)(xing);數(shu)智治為電(dian)(dian)碳(tan)賦能驅動(dong)(dong),是(shi)(shi)其(qi)加(jia)快(kuai)構建(jian)的(de)(de)動(dong)(dong)力(li)源(yuan)泉;鏈即(ji)現代電(dian)(dian)力(li)產(chan)(chan)業鏈,是(shi)(shi)其(qi)深(shen)度轉型(xing)(xing)升級的(de)(de)必然要(yao)求(qiu)。不同于(yu)傳統(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong),新(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)更加(jia)關(guan)(guan)注發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮電(dian)(dian)力(li)行業對經(jing)濟高(gao)質量(liang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)作(zuo)用,以科技創新(xin)(xin)帶來新(xin)(xin)質電(dian)(dian)力(li)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)力(li)的(de)(de)飛躍,以深(shen)化(hua)體制(zhi)改革、破(po)除(chu)體制(zhi)藩籬(li)調整生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)。
福建省平潭綜合實驗區大練海域海上風電場。(閔佃/攝)
三是深化(hua)(hua)(hua)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)(di)布(bu)(bu)局,促(cu)進產業轉移。結合資源稟賦和(he)(he)開(kai)(kai)發條件,繼續在“三北”地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)規(gui)劃布(bu)(bu)局一批(pi)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)(di),在沿(yan)海(hai)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)規(gui)劃布(bu)(bu)局一批(pi)海(hai)上風(feng)電(dian)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)(di),根(gen)據(ju)東(dong)中部(bu)電(dian)網電(dian)力(li)需求,適時開(kai)(kai)工建(jian)(jian)設,滿足受端需要(yao)(yao)。在西部(bu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源資源富集(ji)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu),同步(bu)規(gui)劃布(bu)(bu)局新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型儲能(neng)(neng)、氫能(neng)(neng)和(he)(he)戰略新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)興產業,實(shi)現(xian)“西電(dian)西用、產業西移”,將資源優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)轉化(hua)(hua)(hua)為產業優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)、經濟優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)。新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源開(kai)(kai)發規(gui)模(mo)及節(jie)奏取決于電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統綜合調節(jie)能(neng)(neng)力(li),要(yao)(yao)積極推動(dong)(dong)(dong)煤電(dian)靈活(huo)性改造(zao),加快(kuai)推進抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)電(dian)站建(jian)(jian)設,支持新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型儲能(neng)(neng)示(shi)范(fan)推廣應用,加快(kuai)提升系(xi)統靈活(huo)互動(dong)(dong)(dong)水平(ping)。加快(kuai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源結構優(you)化(hua)(hua)(hua),“三北”地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)要(yao)(yao)加快(kuai)推動(dong)(dong)(dong)光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站從試點示(shi)范(fan)到規(gui)模(mo)化(hua)(hua)(hua)開(kai)(kai)發,加快(kuai)形(xing)成規(gui)模(mo)化(hua)(hua)(hua)綠(lv)色靈活(huo)調節(jie)資源,盡早替代(dai)燃煤電(dian)站調節(jie)。充分發揮市場機(ji)制(zhi)作用,采用公開(kai)(kai)招標方式(shi)選擇(ze)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)(di)開(kai)(kai)發主體和(he)(he)受端用電(dian)主體,完善多時間尺(chi)度協同的(de)大型風(feng)光(guang)(guang)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)(di)交易(yi)機(ji)制(zhi),鼓勵大型風(feng)光(guang)(guang)基(ji)(ji)地(di)(di)(di)參與(yu)綠(lv)電(dian)綠(lv)證交易(yi)。探索光(guang)(guang)伏制(zhi)氫、人工智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(AI)算力(li)等綠(lv)色電(dian)力(li)消納新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)模(mo)式(shi),推動(dong)(dong)(dong)更多新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)要(yao)(yao)素主動(dong)(dong)(dong)參與(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源交易(yi)。
四是堅持因地制宜,加強就地平衡。在西藏、新疆和內蒙古西部邊遠地區,以及東中部具有資源優勢的受端地區,鼓勵發展分布式新能源系統。自治型分布式系統是具有自安全、自平衡、小微化、綠色化、數智化、共享化的“兩自四化”特征的智能微網,成為分布式新能源與儲能、需求側響應等就近聚合的可控單元,實現了源網荷儲智能高效協同互動,與電力系統形成安全互助、平衡互補的友好關系,宜加快成為分布式新能源高質量發展的主要形態。加強典型場景應用,在“高海邊無”地區,充分利用當地豐富的新能源資源,建設智能微網滿足當地用能需求;在鄉鎮地區,開展“光伏+儲能+充電基礎設施”協同控制、車網互動等技術應用;在重點城市,加強工業綠色微電網建設,實現多能源品種高效互補利用。進一步完善市場和價格機制,結合分布式新能源技術條件、市場能力、并網容量等,分類制定參與市場化交易路徑和市場機制,健全完善隔墻售電、直供電、產銷一體化等新業態新模式價格機制,推動合理承擔系統備用和調峰成本,促進市場公平。(文(wen)/歐陽昌裕)
(作者(zhe)系國家電網有限(xian)公(gong)司(si)副總工程(cheng)師兼國網能源(yuan)研(yan)究院有限(xian)公(gong)司(si)執行董事(院長)、黨委書記)