中國太(tai)陽能熱發(fa)電(dian)大會合(he)作期(qi)刊(kan)——《電(dian)網(wang)技(ji)術(shu)》2022年第(di)8期(qi)刊(kan)發(fa)了國家電(dian)網(wang)有(you)限公司西北分部市場交易六部主任孫驍(xiao)強等所(suo)著的(de)《新型電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統中光(guang)熱電(dian)站完全替代火電(dian)規劃研究》論(lun)文，經得《電(dian)網(wang)技(ji)術(shu)》和作者同意(yi)，轉載此文如(ru)下：
摘要
光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)可(ke)(ke)以平(ping)穩發(fa)電(dian)(dian)，但仍屬于限能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)，不(bu)(bu)能(neng)(neng)全(quan)(quan)容量(liang)參加(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡(heng)，季(ji)節性(xing)電(dian)(dian)力支撐能(neng)(neng)力受(shou)限。該文基于光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)日(ri)等效保(bao)證小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數和系統高峰時(shi)(shi)段(duan)需求(qiu)提出(chu)了一種評(ping)估光(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機能(neng)(neng)力的方(fang)法，進而(er)給(gei)出(chu)一種通(tong)過增加(jia)(jia)應急鍋(guo)爐(lu)備用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)以完全(quan)(quan)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機應對(dui)極(ji)端(duan)天(tian)氣和季(ji)節性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)(dian)的解(jie)決方(fang)法。青海電(dian)(dian)力系統的算(suan)例表明，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)通(tong)過增加(jia)(jia)應急備用鍋(guo)爐(lu)可(ke)(ke)應對(dui)極(ji)端(duan)天(tian)氣和季(ji)節性(xing)電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)供應的不(bu)(bu)平(ping)衡(heng)，做到全(quan)(quan)容量(liang)全(quan)(quan)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機，同時(shi)(shi)保(bao)證發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)中絕大部分仍是可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)。論文的研究成果，可(ke)(ke)助力光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)實現(xian)以少量(liang)低碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)帶(dai)動大規模可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)，在(zai)新型電(dian)(dian)力系統中具有(you)重要示范意義。
0 引言
隨著國家(jia)雙碳戰略(lve)目(mu)標的(de)(de)實施，我國新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)發規模繼續擴大，火電(dian)(dian)建設空間將進一步壓縮，而系(xi)統負荷仍在穩步增長，風電(dian)(dian)及光(guang)伏的(de)(de)波動性使系(xi)統難(nan)以實現全時段電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)平衡。可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)季節性不(bu)平衡是電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統中新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)占(zhan)比升高到一定(ding)階(jie)段必然面臨的(de)(de)問題。
新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統需要(yao)尋求能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠(gou)替(ti)代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)穩(wen)定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)，西北地區光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站本(ben)身具有(you)一定替(ti)代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，但(dan)受太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)直射(she)(she)輻射(she)(she)影響，在(zai)(zai)極(ji)(ji)端(duan)天氣無法獲得足(zu)夠(gou)的(de)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，連(lian)續極(ji)(ji)端(duan)天氣不平衡(heng)問題(ti)更加(jia)突出。目前，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站無法全(quan)容量(liang)參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平衡(heng)，替(ti)代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)大打折扣。本(ben)文(wen)研究通(tong)過增(zeng)加(jia)應急(ji)燃氣鍋爐備用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，可在(zai)(zai)極(ji)(ji)端(duan)天氣補充熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，甚至可以應對系統電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供應的(de)季節性不平衡(heng)，做到全(quan)容量(liang)全(quan)時(shi)段全(quan)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)替(ti)代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)，保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供應；同(tong)時(shi)保證發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)中絕大部分仍(reng)是可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)，實現以少(shao)量(liang)低碳能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)帶(dai)動大規模可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)，在(zai)(zai)新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統中具有(you)重(zhong)要(yao)示范意(yi)義。
1 新型電(dian)力(li)系統電(dian)力(li)保(bao)障形勢
傳統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)以火電(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)常規(gui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)為主(zhu)，調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)負荷(he)波動(dong)引起，隨著新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)滲透(tou)率(lv)的不斷(duan)提高，調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)也(ye)(ye)在(zai)發生變化(hua)，高比例新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)為了滿足新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)接納需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)。與此同時，在(zai)國家雙(shuang)碳戰(zhan)略的推進過程中，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)發展空間大大壓縮，導(dao)致(zhi)為滿足系(xi)統(tong)最(zui)大電(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)的常規(gui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應也(ye)(ye)日趨緊(jin)張。可以預見，以新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)為主(zhu)體(ti)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)同時面(mian)臨向上調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)和(he)向下調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)2個方面(mian)的需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)，尤其是(shi)向上調(diao)(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)關系(xi)到電(dian)(dian)(dian)力保(bao)障問題顯得尤為重要(yao)。
受(shou)資源(yuan)(yuan)約束的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)（限(xian)(xian)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站）向上(shang)調峰能(neng)力(li)的(de)發(fa)揮除了跟(gen)機(ji)(ji)組自身調峰能(neng)力(li)有關外(wai)，還(huan)與資源(yuan)(yuan)決定(ding)的(de)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量密切相關，不(bu)(bu)同電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)向上(shang)調峰能(neng)力(li)存在較大(da)差異。如(ru)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)最(zui)大(da)出(chu)力(li)理論上(shang)可以達到預(yu)想出(chu)力(li)，但實際往往受(shou)來(lai)水(shui)(shui)約束不(bu)(bu)能(neng)達到上(shang)述(shu)最(zui)大(da)值，比(bi)如(ru)青(qing)海水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)冬季(ji)受(shou)來(lai)水(shui)(shui)影響最(zui)大(da)出(chu)力(li)僅為其裝機(ji)(ji)的(de)50%~70%；儲(chu)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站在系(xi)(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量不(bu)(bu)足(zu)時(shi)(shi)也難(nan)以發(fa)揮作用；光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站類似(si)，在太(tai)陽能(neng)資源(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)(bu)好時(shi)(shi)，最(zui)大(da)出(chu)力(li)也會受(shou)限(xian)(xian)。因此(ci)，隨著新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)中(zhong)限(xian)(xian)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站逐步(bu)增加，其參加電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平衡能(neng)力(li)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)，再加上(shang)季(ji)節性(xing)資源(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)(bu)平衡，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)將(jiang)面臨電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)保障缺(que)乏穩定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)支撐的(de)嚴峻形勢。國外(wai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網事故(gu)情況梳理見表1。
國外高比例新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)系(xi)統發生的(de)(de)事故教訓表(biao)明，由于電力(li)無法大規模存儲的(de)(de)特性(xing)，以(yi)光伏、風電為主的(de)(de)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)不能(neng)完全(quan)替代常規穩(wen)定(ding)發電機組，難以(yi)應(ying)對極端(duan)天氣事件(jian)導致的(de)(de)電力(li)供(gong)應(ying)缺口(kou)，加劇了系(xi)統資源(yuan)緊張時段的(de)(de)供(gong)應(ying)挑戰，亟須尋找(zhao)既清潔又能(neng)穩(wen)定(ding)發電的(de)(de)調節電源(yuan)，保障電力(li)系(xi)統全(quan)時段安(an)全(quan)可(ke)靠供(gong)電。
在國(guo)家雙碳目標背景(jing)下，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)具(ju)備(bei)(bei)替代火(huo)電(dian)的(de)(de)潛力(li)，通過增加(jia)應急(ji)(ji)鍋爐(lu)備(bei)(bei)用發電(dian)應對極端(duan)天(tian)氣(qi)，可以全容(rong)量替代火(huo)電(dian)裝機(ji)，作為季節性調峰(feng)電(dian)源滿足(zu)長(chang)時間尺度(du)電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量平衡需要。本文首先基于光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)出(chu)力(li)特性和系統高峰(feng)時段(duan)需求，分(fen)析(xi)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)替代火(huo)電(dian)能(neng)力(li)，然后研究提升(sheng)其保證出(chu)力(li)的(de)(de)措施(shi)，提出(chu)測(ce)算(suan)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)應急(ji)(ji)備(bei)(bei)用發電(dian)量計算(suan)方法，最后通過算(suan)例進(jin)行驗證。
2 光熱電站完全替代火電規劃(hua)研究(jiu)
2.1 光熱電站替代(dai)火電能力(li)分析(xi)
電力(li)(li)系(xi)統中一般(ban)以滿足高峰(feng)負荷時(shi)(shi)段電力(li)(li)平衡確定系(xi)統火電裝機(ji)需(xu)求(qiu)，光熱電站(zhan)要參加電力(li)(li)平衡(替代火電裝機(ji))也需(xu)要保障高峰(feng)負荷時(shi)(shi)段電力(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)。
由于光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與太陽(yang)直射輻射密切相關，某些天(tian)光照資源較(jiao)好時，再加上儲熱(re)(re)裝(zhuang)置蓄熱(re)(re)，光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較(jiao)多，高(gao)峰負荷(he)時段可保證系統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力需求，全容量參加電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡(heng)；而在陰天(tian)或(huo)多云天(tian)氣，光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量很小，極(ji)端天(tian)氣光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站可能出力為零，光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站裝(zhuang)機不能得(de)到充分(fen)利(li)用(yong)，高(gao)峰負荷(he)時段不能有效參加電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡(heng)。
系統可靠(kao)性保(bao)證率(lv)不同(tong)，光熱(re)電站(zhan)參(can)(can)加平衡(heng)容量(liang)也不一樣。為了提高(gao)光熱(re)電站(zhan)參(can)(can)加平衡(heng)容量(liang)比例，可以結合系統需要，通過增加應(ying)急鍋爐備用發電，使得光熱(re)電站(zhan)能夠(gou)完全替代火電裝機，滿足系統電力保(bao)障需要。
2.2 光熱電站應對季(ji)節性缺(que)電能力(li)分析(xi)
新能源出力(li)具有(you)(you)(you)季(ji)(ji)節不(bu)(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡性(xing)，隨著新能源裝機占(zhan)比不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷提高，新型電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)的(de)季(ji)(ji)節性(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)量不(bu)(bu)(bu)平(ping)衡凸顯，某(mou)些(xie)月份(fen)資(zi)源較差的(de)情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)下，系(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)量缺(que)額(e)緊缺(que)，目前來(lai)看(kan)在(zai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)建設(she)空間逐步壓縮的(de)背(bei)景(jing)下，尚未有(you)(you)(you)可解決季(ji)(ji)節性(xing)不(bu)(bu)(bu)平(ping)衡的(de)有(you)(you)(you)效手段(duan)。光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站自身雖然受資(zi)源影響也存在(zai)季(ji)(ji)節性(xing)不(bu)(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡情(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)，但(dan)可以通(tong)過增(zeng)加應急(ji)鍋爐備用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)以完(wan)全替代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機，完(wan)美解決季(ji)(ji)節性(xing)不(bu)(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡問題。
新型電力系統中(zhong)，光熱完全替代(dai)火電分析步驟如下。
3 算例
以青(qing)(qing)海為例，預(yu)計(ji)2030年青(qing)(qing)海省全(quan)社會用電量達(da)到1100億kW·h，最高發電負(fu)荷15500MW。青(qing)(qing)海新能源規劃總(zong)裝機約(yue)57640MW，其(qi)中(zhong)光(guang)伏34000MW、風電16530MW、光(guang)熱5210MW。
3.1 光熱電站出(chu)力特性分析
青海海西地(di)區(qu)光(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)資源豐(feng)富，烏(wu)圖(tu)、冷湖(hu)、德(de)令哈地(di)區(qu)光(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)電季節性明顯[17]。以(yi)(yi)(yi)100MW光(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)電站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(鏡場面積148萬m2，太陽倍數(shu)(shu)(shu)2.9，儲熱(re)(re)(re)時長15h，發(fa)(fa)電機(ji)(ji)功率100MW，汽(qi)輪(lun)機(ji)(ji)功率217MWt，集熱(re)(re)(re)器功率630MWt)為例(li)，根(gen)據典(dian)型年(nian)(nian)光(guang)照資源數(shu)(shu)(shu)據，模擬逐(zhu)小時出(chu)(chu)力，并進行(xing)特性統計分析。圖(tu)1給出(chu)(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)光(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)電站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)典(dian)型年(nian)(nian)內各(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)分布，可以(yi)(yi)(yi)看出(chu)(chu)，2—4月(yue)(yue)(yue)、9—10月(yue)(yue)(yue)光(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)電站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)較(jiao)多，6—8月(yue)(yue)(yue)和(he)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)較(jiao)少(shao)。圖(tu) 2給出(chu)(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)(烏(wu)圖(tu)、冷湖(hu)和(he)德(de)令哈)光(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)電站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)典(dian)型年(nian)(nian)各(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)日等效發(fa)(fa)電小時數(shu)(shu)(shu)小于4h天(tian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)統計。可以(yi)(yi)(yi)看出(chu)(chu)，烏(wu)圖(tu)、冷湖(hu)和(he)德(de)令哈地(di)區(qu)全年(nian)(nian)日光(guang)熱(re)(re)(re)等效發(fa)(fa)電小時數(shu)(shu)(shu)低于4h的天(tian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)分別為52、57、75天(tian)，在5—8月(yue)(yue)(yue)發(fa)(fa)生較(jiao)多。
圖(tu)1 海西地區光熱電站(zhan)典型(xing)年內各(ge)月發電量分布(bu)
圖2 海西地區光(guang)熱電站典型年各(ge)月日等效(xiao)發(fa)電小時(shi)數小于4h天(tian)數統計
3.2 光熱替(ti)代火(huo)電能(neng)力分析
圖3給出了青(qing)海(hai)(hai)電(dian)網典(dian)型日(ri)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)曲線示意圖。可(ke)以看出，青(qing)海(hai)(hai)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)曲線較平(ping)，疊加直流外(wai)送(song)曲線后，冬(dong)季(ji)晚高峰(feng)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)時段一般為18:00—21:00左右，因此，電(dian)源參加電(dian)力平(ping)衡需保證晚高峰(feng)時段4~6h電(dian)力需求(qiu)。
圖(tu)3 青(qing)海電網典型日(ri)負荷曲線示意圖(tu)
光(guang)熱(re)電站配(pei)置(zhi)儲熱(re)罐，考慮(lv)連(lian)續陰天情況(kuang)，預留部分熱(re)量跨日調節(jie)。光(guang)熱(re)電站日發電量優化后，將日發電量從(cong)大到小(xiao)排序，按(an)系統要(yao)求保證(zheng)率，確定(ding)光(guang)熱(re)電站可(ke)調節(jie)日發電量。
表2給出(chu)了(le)海(hai)西地(di)區光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)比例測(ce)算(suan)結果。圖4給出(chu)了(le)海(hai)西烏圖地(di)區光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)(ri)等(deng)效(xiao)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)數分布(bu)示意圖。可以看出(chu)，根(gen)據前(qian)面方法測(ce)算(suan)，按95%保(bao)(bao)證率，不(bu)考(kao)慮(lv)跨(kua)日(ri)(ri)調(diao)節，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)(ri)等(deng)效(xiao)保(bao)(bao)證小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)數為(wei)0，基本不(bu)能參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡，即無法替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)；光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)儲熱(re)時(shi)(shi)(shi)長15h(即儲熱(re)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)可以支撐光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)滿發15h)，根(gen)據天氣及出(chu)力預測(ce)事先安排一定(ding)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)進行跨(kua)日(ri)(ri)調(diao)節，考(kao)慮(lv)跨(kua)日(ri)(ri)調(diao)節后光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)(ri)等(deng)效(xiao)保(bao)(bao)證小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)數為(wei)5.1h，可滿足晚(wan)高峰(feng)負(fu)荷4h需求(qiu)，全(quan)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡，完全(quan)替代(dai)相同容(rong)量(liang)(liang)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)。若(ruo)按100%保(bao)(bao)證率，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)(ri)等(deng)效(xiao)保(bao)(bao)證小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)數為(wei)3.5h，參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡比例(火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)替代(dai)率)約(yue)87.5%。
表2 海西(xi)地區光熱電站(zhan)替代(dai)火電裝機(ji)比例(li)測算
圖(tu)4 海西(xi)烏(wu)圖(tu)地區(qu)光(guang)熱電站日等效小時(shi)數(shu)分布示意圖(tu)
表3給出了不同保證(zheng)率情(qing)況下，考慮跨日調節(jie)后的(de)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)力(li)平衡容量(liang)。可以(yi)看(kan)出，晚高(gao)峰時(shi)段按6h，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)替(ti)代火電(dian)(dian)裝機比(bi)例有(you)所降低，100%保證(zheng)率下光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)僅可替(ti)代約50%左(zuo)右的(de)火電(dian)(dian)裝機。
表3 海西地區光熱(re)在不(bu)同保證率(lv)下替代火電裝機比例測算(suan)
3.3 光熱電站應對季節性缺電能力(li)分析
青海以水電和新(xin)能源為主(zhu)，清潔能源裝機占比(bi)達到(dao)90%以上(shang)，全年(nian)電量基(ji)本平(ping)衡，但存在季節(jie)性(xing)不(bu)平(ping)衡，冬季電力電量缺額較(jiao)大(da)。
圖(tu)5給出了青(qing)海(hai)水電(dian)月電(dian)量分布示意圖(tu)。可(ke)以看出，青(qing)海(hai)水電(dian)占比較大，受(shou)來水影響，夏季5—10月發電(dian)量相對較多，冬季11—12月和1—2月發電(dian)量較少，季節性電(dian)量不(bu)平衡明顯。
圖5 2030年青(qing)海水電月發電量(liang)分布示意圖
圖6給出(chu)了青(qing)海新能源(yuan)月(yue)電量(liang)分布示意圖。可以看(kan)出(chu)，青(qing)海新能源(yuan)(含(han)光伏、風(feng)電、光熱)受資(zi)源(yuan)影(ying)響(xiang)也存(cun)在較(jiao)大的(de)季(ji)(ji)節性電量(liang)不平衡(heng)，春季(ji)(ji)3—5月(yue)發電量(liang)較(jiao)多，冬季(ji)(ji)11—12月(yue)發電量(liang)明顯減少(shao)。
圖6 2030年(nian)青海新(xin)能源月發電量分布示(shi)意圖
表4給出(chu)了青海逐(zhu)月電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)平衡(heng)結果，其中示意(yi)圖見圖7。可以看出(chu)，由(you)于水電(dian)(dian)和新能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)均受資源約束，季節性電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)不平衡(heng)一直存在，冬季兩者(zhe)疊(die)加后發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)減少較(jiao)多，青海全省出(chu)現較(jiao)大電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)缺口。
表4 2030年青海電網逐月電量平衡(heng)結果
圖7 2030年(nian)青海電網逐月(yue)電量平(ping)衡示意圖
青海(hai)季(ji)(ji)節(jie)性缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題一直(zhi)存在，且隨著新能源(yuan)裝機滲透率(lv)逐(zhu)步提(ti)高，季(ji)(ji)節(jie)性缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題日益加(jia)劇(ju)。目(mu)前(qian)青海(hai)的(de)冬(dong)季(ji)(ji)缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題仍主要依托西(xi)北主網提(ti)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量支撐(cheng)，但隨著西(xi)北其他省份火電(dian)(dian)(dian)建設空間(jian)進一步壓縮，再加(jia)上規劃通(tong)道建成和負荷逐(zhu)步增長，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)盈余逐(zhu)步減小(xiao)，給(gei)青海(hai)能夠(gou)(gou)提(ti)供的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)支撐(cheng)有(you)(you)限(xian)，需要青海(hai)從自身內部尋(xun)求能夠(gou)(gou)解決季(ji)(ji)節(jie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量不(bu)平衡的(de)措施。目(mu)前(qian)來(lai)看，尚未(wei)有(you)(you)經濟可(ke)行的(de)跨季(ji)(ji)調節(jie)手(shou)段(duan)，光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)站在通(tong)過應急備用發電(dian)(dian)(dian)可(ke)完全(quan)替代火電(dian)(dian)(dian)，以應對上述季(ji)(ji)節(jie)性缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題。
表5給出了(le)海(hai)西地(di)區光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)應(ying)(ying)急備用發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運行指標。圖8給出了(le)海(hai)西地(di)區光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)考(kao)慮應(ying)(ying)急發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)的(de)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)分布。圖9給出了(le)海(hai)西地(di)區光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)考(kao)慮應(ying)(ying)急發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)的(de)12月(yue)(yue)逐(zhu)時平均發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)。可(ke)以看出，根(gen)據(ju)前述方法初(chu)步(bu)測算，全年應(ying)(ying)急發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)22億kW·h，其中12月(yue)(yue)份需要應(ying)(ying)急發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)最大(da)(da)，約(yue)14億kW·h(占比(bi)64%)，小時數(shu)提(ti)高(gao)約(yue)440h，占比(bi)僅約(yue)8.8%。冬(dong)季12月(yue)(yue)日最大(da)(da)應(ying)(ying)急發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.2億kW·h(全天24h連續應(ying)(ying)急發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運行)，小時最大(da)(da)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)500萬kW·h(即滿功率發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian))，可(ke)全容量(liang)替代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機。
表5 海西地區(qu)光熱(re)電站應急(ji)備用發電運(yun)行指標
圖8 2030年海西地區(qu)光熱(re)電站發電量分布（含應急發電）
圖9 2030年海西地(di)區光熱(re)電站(zhan)12月逐時平均(jun)發(fa)電量(liang)（含應急發(fa)電）
對不同(tong)光(guang)熱規(gui)模(mo)對應(ying)的應(ying)急備(bei)用(yong)(yong)發電(dian)(dian)比(bi)例進行敏感(gan)性分析，表6和(he)圖(tu)10給出了2030年海(hai)西地區(qu)不同(tong)規(gui)模(mo)光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站對應(ying)應(ying)急備(bei)用(yong)(yong)發電(dian)(dian)運(yun)行指(zhi)標。可以(yi)看出，隨著光(guang)熱規(gui)模(mo)逐步減少，光(guang)熱應(ying)急備(bei)用(yong)(yong)發電(dian)(dian)比(bi)例呈現逐步升高趨勢(shi)，由8.9%增(zeng)加(jia)至20.2%。
表(biao)6 海西(xi)地區不同(tong)規模光熱電(dian)站應急備用發(fa)電(dian)運行(xing)指標
圖(tu)10 2030年(nian)海西地區不同光熱電站規模發電量統計（含(han)應急發電）
需要說(shuo)明的(de)是，關于應急備用發電(補燃(ran))技術方案(an)，可(ke)以(yi)采(cai)用天然(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)補燃(ran)，也可(ke)以(yi)采(cai)用生物質補燃(ran)，還可(ke)與(yu)供熱相結(jie)合，有待進一(yi)步論證。以(yi)天然(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)補燃(ran)為(wei)例(li)，初步估算增(zeng)加(jia)燃(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)備用鍋爐投資約1000元(yuan)/kW，青海天然(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)價格(ge)按1.15元(yuan)/m3，補燃(ran)發電效率(lv)約40%左右，1m3氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)按發4kW·h電考慮，補燃(ran)單位發電成本(ben)約0.2875元(yuan)/(kW·h)。
4 結論
在國家雙碳目標(biao)驅(qu)動下，我國新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機規(gui)模將更加快速增長，而火(huo)電(dian)(dian)建設空間(jian)進一步壓縮。未來新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統將面臨一定的電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)保障(zhang)問題，光熱電(dian)(dian)站作為儲熱型(xing)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)站，通過增加應急鍋爐(lu)備用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)，可(ke)(ke)以(yi)全時段替代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機，為系統提供電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)支(zhi)撐。同(tong)時可(ke)(ke)以(yi)實現以(yi)少量(liang)低碳能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)帶動更大規(gui)模可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)，可(ke)(ke)以(yi)助力(li)(li)我國新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)目標(biao)和碳達峰(feng)目標(biao)早日完成。
研(yan)究結(jie)果初步(bu)表明，2030年前青海新增(zeng)1000~5000MW光(guang)熱電(dian)站，通過增(zeng)加10%~20%左(zuo)右應急備用發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)可(ke)以完(wan)全替代相同容量(liang)火電(dian)，從而應對季節性缺電(dian)問(wen)題(ti)或(huo)極端(duan)天氣下的電(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)量(liang)不足問(wen)題(ti)，保障電(dian)力(li)(li)可(ke)靠供應。
孫驍強1, 汪瑩(ying)1, 李慶海1, 李富春2, 楊(yang)攀峰2, 楊(yang)楠(nan)1, 張小奇(qi)1, 霍超1, 傅旭(xu)2, 李海偉(wei)2
1. 國家電(dian)網(wang)有限公(gong)司(si)西北分部，陜西省(sheng) 西安市 710048;
2. 中國電(dian)力工程顧問集團西北電(dian)力設(she)計院有限公司，陜西省(sheng) 西安市 710075
收稿日期：2021-10-21；在線出版(ban)日期：2022-07-08
電網技(ji)術(shu), 2022, 46(8): 2948-2954.
作者簡(jian)介：
孫驍強，正(zheng)高級工程(cheng)師，曾(ceng)從事電力系(xi)統(tong)調度(du)、規劃、技術研究工作，現任國家電網有(you)限(xian)公司(si)西北(bei)分部市場交易六部主任。研究方向為電力系(xi)統(tong)規劃與(yu)運行、新能源并網與(yu)消納(na)等(deng)。E-mail：lampsun@yeah.net。
其對(dui)西北新能(neng)源(yuan)的運行及規劃(hua)有較多(duo)研究，在新能(neng)源(yuan)快(kuai)速頻率(lv)響應方面相關理論(lun)已(yi)經編(bian)寫入(ru)國標。近年主編(bian)專業書籍3本，參與編(bian)寫國家(jia)標準3項(xiang)(xiang)，發表EI檢索論(lun)文(wen)6篇并多(duo)次獲獎，申請專利7項(xiang)(xiang)。
汪瑩，女，高(gao)級工程師，通(tong)信(xin)作者，研究方向(xiang)為電力系統規(gui)劃，E-mail：wangying-1115@163.com。
