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摘要：光熱電站可以平穩發電，但仍屬于限能電站，不能全容量參加電力平衡，季節性電力支撐能力受限。該文基于光熱電站日等效保證小時數和系統高峰時段需求提出了一種評估光熱發電替代火電裝機能力的方法，進而給出一種通過增加應急鍋爐備用發電以完全替代火電裝機應對極端天氣和季節性缺電的解決方法。青海電力系統的算例表明，光熱電站通過增加應急備用鍋爐可應對極端天氣和季節性電力電量供應的不平衡，做到全容量全時段替代火電裝機，同時保證發電量中絕大部分仍是可再生能源。論文的研究成果，可助力光熱電站實現以少量低碳能源帶動大規模可再生能源開發，在新型電力系統中具有重要示范意義。

引言

隨著(zhu)國(guo)家雙碳(tan)戰略目標的(de)實施(shi)，我國(guo)新能(neng)源開發規(gui)模繼續擴大，火電建設空間(jian)將進一(yi)步(bu)壓(ya)縮，而系統(tong)負荷仍在(zai)穩步(bu)增(zeng)長，風電及光伏的(de)波動性使系統(tong)難(nan)以(yi)實現全時(shi)段(duan)電力(li)(li)電量平衡。可(ke)再生能(neng)源發電的(de)季節(jie)性不(bu)平衡是電力(li)(li)系統(tong)中新能(neng)源占比升高(gao)到(dao)一(yi)定階段(duan)必然(ran)面臨(lin)的(de)問題(ti)[1-4]。

新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統需要(yao)尋求能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠替(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)的(de)穩定電(dian)源(yuan)，西北地區光熱(re)電(dian)站本身(shen)具(ju)(ju)有(you)一定替(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)裝機能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，但(dan)受太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)直射輻射影響(xiang)，在(zai)(zai)極(ji)端天(tian)氣(qi)無法獲得足夠的(de)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，連續極(ji)端天(tian)氣(qi)不平衡問(wen)題更(geng)加突出。目前，光熱(re)電(dian)站無法全(quan)容量(liang)(liang)參加電(dian)力(li)平衡，替(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)裝機能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)大(da)打折扣。本文研究通過增加應(ying)急燃(ran)氣(qi)鍋爐備用發(fa)電(dian)，可在(zai)(zai)極(ji)端天(tian)氣(qi)補(bu)充(chong)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，甚(shen)至(zhi)可以應(ying)對系(xi)統電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)供應(ying)的(de)季節性不平衡，做到全(quan)容量(liang)(liang)全(quan)時段全(quan)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)替(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)裝機，保障電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)供應(ying)；同時保證發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)中(zhong)絕大(da)部(bu)分仍(reng)是可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)，實現(xian)以少量(liang)(liang)低碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)帶動大(da)規(gui)模可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)，在(zai)(zai)新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統中(zhong)具(ju)(ju)有(you)重要(yao)示范意義。

1、新型電力系統電力保障形勢

傳統(tong)(tong)電力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)以(yi)火電、水電等常(chang)規(gui)電源(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)主，調峰(feng)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)主要(yao)是(shi)負荷(he)波動引起(qi)，隨著(zhu)新能源(yuan)(yuan)滲(shen)透率的不斷提(ti)高，調峰(feng)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)也(ye)在發生變化(hua)，高比例新能源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)調峰(feng)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)主要(yao)是(shi)為(wei)了滿足新能源(yuan)(yuan)接納需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)。與此(ci)同(tong)時，在國家雙碳戰略的推(tui)進過程中(zhong)，火電發展空間大(da)(da)大(da)(da)壓縮，導致(zhi)為(wei)滿足系(xi)統(tong)(tong)最大(da)(da)電力(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)的常(chang)規(gui)電源(yuan)(yuan)電力(li)(li)供應也(ye)日趨緊張。可以(yi)預見，以(yi)新能源(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)主體的電力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)同(tong)時面臨(lin)向上調峰(feng)和向下(xia)調峰(feng)2個方面的需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)，尤(you)其(qi)是(shi)向上調峰(feng)關系(xi)到電力(li)(li)保障問(wen)題(ti)顯得尤(you)為(wei)重要(yao)。

受資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)約束的(de)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(限能電(dian)(dian)站)向(xiang)上調(diao)峰(feng)能力(li)(li)的(de)發(fa)揮(hui)除了跟機(ji)組(zu)自身調(diao)峰(feng)能力(li)(li)有關(guan)外，還與(yu)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)決定的(de)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)密切相關(guan)，不同電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)向(xiang)上調(diao)峰(feng)能力(li)(li)存在(zai)(zai)較大差異。如水電(dian)(dian)最(zui)(zui)大出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)理論上可以(yi)達到(dao)預想出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)，但實際往往受來水約束不能達到(dao)上述最(zui)(zui)大值(zhi)，比如青海水電(dian)(dian)冬季受來水影(ying)響最(zui)(zui)大出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)僅為其(qi)裝機(ji)的(de)50%~70%；儲能電(dian)(dian)站在(zai)(zai)系統電(dian)(dian)量(liang)不足時也(ye)難以(yi)發(fa)揮(hui)作用；光熱電(dian)(dian)站類似，在(zai)(zai)太(tai)陽(yang)能資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)不好(hao)時，最(zui)(zui)大出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)也(ye)會受限。因此(ci)，隨著新型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統中限能電(dian)(dian)站逐步增加(jia)，其(qi)參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平衡(heng)能力(li)(li)不足，再加(jia)上季節性資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)不平衡(heng)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統將面臨電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)保障(zhang)缺乏穩定電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)支撐的(de)嚴峻形(xing)勢[5-16]。

國外電網事故(gu)情況梳(shu)理見表(biao)1。

表1國外電網事故情況梳理

Table 1 Summary of power grid accidents abroad

國外高比(bi)例新能源(yuan)系統(tong)發(fa)(fa)生的事故教訓(xun)表明，由于電(dian)(dian)(dian)力無(wu)法大規模存儲的特(te)性(xing)，以光伏、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)為主的新能源(yuan)不能完(wan)全替(ti)代常規穩定(ding)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組，難以應(ying)對極(ji)端天(tian)氣事件導致的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應(ying)缺口，加劇了系統(tong)資源(yuan)緊張時(shi)段的供應(ying)挑戰，亟需尋找既清潔(jie)又能穩定(ding)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的調節(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)，保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)全時(shi)段安全可(ke)靠供電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

在國家雙碳目標背景(jing)下，光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站具備替代火電(dian)(dian)的(de)潛力，通(tong)過(guo)增加應(ying)急鍋爐備用發電(dian)(dian)應(ying)對極端天(tian)氣，可以全容量(liang)(liang)替代火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機，作為季節性調峰電(dian)(dian)源滿足長(chang)時間尺度電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)平(ping)衡需要。本(ben)文首先基于光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站出力特性和系統高峰時段(duan)需求，分析(xi)光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站替代火電(dian)(dian)能力，然后研究提升其保證出力的(de)措施，提出測算(suan)(suan)光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站應(ying)急備用發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)方法(fa)，最后通(tong)過(guo)算(suan)(suan)例進行驗證。

2、光熱電站完全替代火電規劃研究

2.1光(guang)熱電站替(ti)代(dai)火電能力分析

電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)中(zhong)一般(ban)以滿足高(gao)峰負荷(he)(he)時段電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平(ping)(ping)衡(heng)確定系(xi)統(tong)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)，光熱電(dian)(dian)站要參加電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平(ping)(ping)衡(heng)(替代(dai)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機)也需(xu)(xu)要保障(zhang)高(gao)峰負荷(he)(he)時段電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)。

由于光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與太陽直射輻射密切相(xiang)關，某些天光(guang)(guang)(guang)照資源較(jiao)好時(shi)，再加(jia)上儲(chu)熱(re)(re)裝置蓄熱(re)(re)，光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較(jiao)多，高(gao)(gao)峰負(fu)荷時(shi)段(duan)可保證(zheng)系(xi)統電(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求，全容量參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡；而在陰天或多云天氣，光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量很小，極端天氣光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)可能出力為零(ling)，光(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)裝機不能得到充分(fen)利(li)用，高(gao)(gao)峰負(fu)荷時(shi)段(duan)不能有效參(can)加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡。

根據(ju)太(tai)陽能資源模擬光熱(re)電站(zhan)出力(li)，統計光熱(re)電站(zhan)出力(li)特性，通過光熱(re)電站(zhan)日等(deng)效發電小時數Td來(lai)表征資源好壞，定義為(wei)

Td=Qcsp/Pcsp(1)

式中：Qcsp為(wei)(wei)光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)日(ri)發電量；Pcsp為(wei)(wei)光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)裝機(ji)容量。

考慮系(xi)統供電(dian)(dian)可靠性保(bao)(bao)證率，確定光熱電(dian)(dian)站日等效保(bao)(bao)證小時數T′d，如取(qu)95%保(bao)(bao)證率，即光熱電(dian)(dian)站能夠保(bao)(bao)證95%的天數日發電(dian)(dian)量應(ying)在T′d以上。

根據(ju)光熱電(dian)站所(suo)在電(dian)力系統負荷特性，給定高峰(feng)負荷時段電(dian)力保證需(xu)求Tf，分(fen)為以下3種(zhong)情形(xing)：

1）情形一。若Td大于Tf，則光熱電站可在負(fu)荷高峰時段全(quan)容(rong)量參(can)加(jia)電力平(ping)衡，即參(can)加(jia)電力平(ping)衡的容(rong)量比例為100%。

2）情(qing)形二。若(ruo)Td小于Tf，則光熱電(dian)站參加電(dian)力平衡(heng)的容量比例即為Td/Tf。

3）情形(xing)三。若(ruo)Td等(deng)于(yu)0，則光熱電(dian)站(zhan)參(can)加(jia)電(dian)力平(ping)衡的容量比例即為0。

系統可(ke)靠性保證(zheng)率(lv)不同，光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站參(can)加(jia)(jia)平(ping)衡容量也不一樣。為了提(ti)高(gao)光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站參(can)加(jia)(jia)平(ping)衡容量比例，可(ke)以(yi)結合系統需(xu)要，通過增加(jia)(jia)應急鍋爐備用發電(dian)(dian)，使(shi)得光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站能夠完全(quan)替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機，滿足系統電(dian)(dian)力保障需(xu)要。

2.2光熱電站(zhan)應對季(ji)節性缺電能(neng)力分析

新(xin)能源出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)具有季(ji)節不(bu)均(jun)(jun)衡性(xing)，隨著新(xin)能源裝機(ji)占比(bi)不(bu)斷提高，新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統的季(ji)節性(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)量不(bu)平(ping)衡凸(tu)顯，某些月(yue)份資(zi)源較差的情況下(xia)，系統電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)量缺額(e)緊缺，目(mu)前來看(kan)在火(huo)電(dian)(dian)建設空間逐步壓縮的背(bei)景(jing)下(xia)，尚未有可解(jie)決季(ji)節性(xing)不(bu)平(ping)衡的有效手段。光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站自(zi)身雖然(ran)受資(zi)源影響也(ye)存在季(ji)節性(xing)不(bu)均(jun)(jun)衡情況，但可以通(tong)過增加應急鍋(guo)爐(lu)備用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)以完(wan)全替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)，完(wan)美解(jie)決季(ji)節性(xing)不(bu)均(jun)(jun)衡問題。

新型電(dian)力系(xi)統中，光熱(re)完全替代火(huo)電(dian)分析步(bu)驟(zou)如下。

首先，系(xi)統中(zhong)加入光熱電站，通(tong)過逐月(yue)電量平衡分析和生(sheng)產模擬，確(que)定全(quan)時(shi)段電力電量缺(que)口(kou)，系(xi)統在時(shi)刻(ke)t的電力缺(que)額記為ΔPt，光熱電站在t時(shi)刻(ke)的出力記為Pcsp,t和全(quan)年發電量Qcsp。

其次，根據系統需(xu)要，計算光熱電站應急備用發電出(chu)力ΔPcsp,t，分為以下情形：

1）情形一。若Pcsp,t<Pcsp，ΔPt?Pcsp?Pcsp,t，則ΔPcsp,t=Pcsp?Pcsp,t。

2）情形(xing)二。若(ruo)Pcsp,t<Pcsp，ΔPt<Pcsp?Pcsp,t，則ΔPcsp,t=ΔPt。

3）情形三(san)。若Pcsp,t=Pcsp，則ΔPcsp,t=0。

最后，計算光熱電(dian)站(zhan)全年應急(ji)備用電(dian)量(liang)ΔQcsp和應急(ji)備用電(dian)量(liang)占比δ，即

ΔQcsp=∑t=1365ΔPcsp,t(2)

δ=ΔQcsp/(Qcsp+ΔQcsp)(3)

3、算例

以青(qing)(qing)(qing)海為例，預計2030年青(qing)(qing)(qing)海省全社會用電(dian)量(liang)達(da)到1100億kW·h，最(zui)高(gao)發(fa)電(dian)負(fu)荷15500MW。青(qing)(qing)(qing)海新能源規劃總(zong)裝機約57640MW，其中光伏34000MW、風電(dian)16530MW、光熱5210MW。

3.1光熱(re)電站出力(li)特性分析

青海(hai)海(hai)西地(di)區(qu)(qu)光(guang)熱(re)(re)資源豐富，烏(wu)圖(tu)、冷湖(hu)、德令(ling)哈(ha)地(di)區(qu)(qu)光(guang)熱(re)(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)季節性(xing)明顯[17]。以(yi)100MW光(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(鏡(jing)場(chang)面積148萬m2，太陽倍數(shu)(shu)(shu)2.9，儲熱(re)(re)時長(chang)15h，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機功率100MW，汽輪機功率217MWt，集熱(re)(re)器功率630MWt)為例，根據(ju)典型年(nian)(nian)光(guang)照(zhao)資源數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)，模擬逐小時出(chu)力(li)，并進行特性(xing)統計分析。圖(tu)1給出(chu)了(le)海(hai)西地(di)區(qu)(qu)光(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)典型年(nian)(nian)內各(ge)月發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量分布，可(ke)以(yi)看出(chu)，2—4月、9—10月光(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較多(duo)，6—8月和12月發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較少(shao)。圖(tu)2給出(chu)了(le)海(hai)西地(di)區(qu)(qu)(烏(wu)圖(tu)、冷湖(hu)和德令(ling)哈(ha))光(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)典型年(nian)(nian)各(ge)月日等(deng)效發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)小時數(shu)(shu)(shu)小于(yu)4h天(tian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)統計。可(ke)以(yi)看出(chu)，烏(wu)圖(tu)、冷湖(hu)和德令(ling)哈(ha)地(di)區(qu)(qu)全年(nian)(nian)日光(guang)熱(re)(re)等(deng)效發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)小時數(shu)(shu)(shu)低于(yu)4h的天(tian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)分別為52、57、75天(tian)，在5—8月發(fa)生較多(duo)。

圖1海西地區光熱電站典型年內各月發電量分布

Fig.1 Monthly power generation distribution of solar thermal power station in Haixi region in a typical year

圖2海(hai)西地區光熱(re)電站典型年(nian)各月日(ri)等效發電小時數小于4h天數統計

Fig.2 Statistics of the number of days when the daily equivalent power generation hours of each month in a typical year of solar thermal power station in Haixi area are less than 4 hours

3.2光熱替代火電能力分(fen)析

圖3給出了青海電(dian)網典型日(ri)負荷(he)曲(qu)(qu)線示(shi)意圖。可以看出，青海負荷(he)曲(qu)(qu)線較平，疊加直(zhi)流外送曲(qu)(qu)線后，冬季晚高峰負荷(he)時段(duan)(duan)一般(ban)為18:00—21:00左右(you)，因此，電(dian)源參加電(dian)力平衡(heng)需保證晚高峰時段(duan)(duan)4~6h電(dian)力需求。

圖3青(qing)海電網典型日(ri)負荷(he)曲線示(shi)意圖

Fig.3 Typical daily load curve of Qinghai Power Grid

光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站配置儲(chu)熱(re)罐，考慮連(lian)續陰天情況，預留(liu)部分熱(re)量跨日(ri)(ri)調(diao)節。光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站日(ri)(ri)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量優化后，將(jiang)日(ri)(ri)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量從(cong)大到小(xiao)排序，按(an)系統要求保(bao)證率，確定光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站可調(diao)節日(ri)(ri)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量。

表2給(gei)出了(le)海西地區(qu)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)替代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)比例(li)測(ce)算結果。圖(tu)4給(gei)出了(le)海西烏圖(tu)地區(qu)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)等效(xiao)(xiao)小時(shi)(shi)數(shu)分布(bu)示意(yi)圖(tu)。可(ke)以(yi)看出，根(gen)據前面方法測(ce)算，按95%保(bao)證(zheng)率，不(bu)考(kao)慮跨(kua)(kua)日(ri)調節，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)等效(xiao)(xiao)保(bao)證(zheng)小時(shi)(shi)數(shu)為0，基本(ben)不(bu)能參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)，即無法替代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)；光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)儲(chu)熱(re)時(shi)(shi)長15h(即儲(chu)熱(re)容量(liang)可(ke)以(yi)支撐光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)滿發15h)，根(gen)據天氣及出力預測(ce)事先安排一定容量(liang)進行(xing)跨(kua)(kua)日(ri)調節，考(kao)慮跨(kua)(kua)日(ri)調節后光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)等效(xiao)(xiao)保(bao)證(zheng)小時(shi)(shi)數(shu)為5.1h，可(ke)滿足晚高峰負(fu)荷4h需(xu)求，全(quan)容量(liang)參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)，完全(quan)替代相同容量(liang)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)。若按100%保(bao)證(zheng)率，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)日(ri)等效(xiao)(xiao)保(bao)證(zheng)小時(shi)(shi)數(shu)為3.5h，參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)比例(li)(火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容量(liang)替代率)約87.5%。

表2海西地區光熱電站替代火電裝機比例測算

Table 2 Calculation of installed proportion of solar thermal power station replacing thermal power in Haixi area

圖4海西烏圖地(di)區光熱電站日等效小(xiao)時數分(fen)布示意(yi)圖

Fig.4 Distribution diagram of daily equivalent hours of photothermal power station in Haixi area

表(biao)3給出了不同保證率情況下，考(kao)慮(lv)跨(kua)日調節后的(de)光熱電(dian)站參加電(dian)力平衡容量。可以(yi)看出，晚高峰時(shi)段(duan)按(an)6h，光熱電(dian)站替代火電(dian)裝機(ji)比例有所降低，100%保證率下光熱電(dian)站僅可替代約50%左(zuo)右的(de)火電(dian)裝機(ji)。

表3海西地區光熱在不同保證率下替代火電裝機比例測算

Table 3 Calculation of installed ratio of solar thermal power to thermal power under different guarantee rates in Haixi area

3.3光熱電站應(ying)對季(ji)節性缺(que)電能力(li)分析

青海以水電和新能源(yuan)為主，清潔能源(yuan)裝機占比達到90%以上，全年(nian)電量基本(ben)平衡(heng)，但(dan)存在季節性不平衡(heng)，冬季電力電量缺額較大。

圖5給出了青海(hai)水電月(yue)電量(liang)分布示(shi)意圖。可以看出，青海(hai)水電占(zhan)比較(jiao)大，受來水影(ying)響，夏季(ji)5—10月(yue)發電量(liang)相對較(jiao)多，冬季(ji)11—12月(yue)和(he)1—2月(yue)發電量(liang)較(jiao)少，季(ji)節性電量(liang)不(bu)平衡明顯(xian)。

圖5 2030年青海水電月發電量分布示意圖

Fig.5 Distribution diagram of monthly hydropower generation in Qinghai in 2030

圖6給(gei)出(chu)了青(qing)海(hai)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源月電量(liang)(liang)分布示意圖。可以看出(chu)，青(qing)海(hai)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(含光伏(fu)、風電、光熱)受(shou)資(zi)源影響也存在較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)的(de)季節性電量(liang)(liang)不平衡(heng)，春(chun)季3—5月發(fa)電量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)多，冬季11—12月發(fa)電量(liang)(liang)明顯減少。

圖6 2030年青海新能源月發電量(liang)分(fen)布示意圖

Fig.6 Distribution diagram of monthly power generation of new energy in Qinghai in 2030

表4給出(chu)了青海逐月電(dian)量(liang)平衡(heng)結果，其中示(shi)意圖見圖7。可以看出(chu)，由(you)于水電(dian)和新能源(yuan)發電(dian)量(liang)均(jun)受(shou)資源(yuan)約(yue)束(shu)，季(ji)節性(xing)電(dian)量(liang)不(bu)平衡(heng)一直存在，冬季(ji)兩者疊加后發電(dian)量(liang)減少較多，青海全(quan)省(sheng)出(chu)現(xian)較大電(dian)量(liang)缺口。

表(biao)4 2030年青(qing)海電網逐(zhu)月電量平(ping)衡結果(guo)

Table 4 Monthly power balance results of Qinghai Power Grid in 2030

圖(tu)7 2030年(nian)青海電(dian)網逐月電(dian)量平(ping)衡示意圖(tu)

Fig.7 Schematic diagram of monthly power balance of Qinghai Power Grid in 2030

青(qing)海(hai)(hai)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)節(jie)(jie)性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)一直(zhi)存在，且(qie)隨著(zhu)新能(neng)(neng)源裝機滲(shen)透率逐步(bu)提(ti)(ti)高，季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)節(jie)(jie)性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)日益加(jia)劇(ju)。目前青(qing)海(hai)(hai)的(de)冬季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)缺(que)電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)仍(reng)主要依托西北(bei)(bei)主網提(ti)(ti)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)量支(zhi)撐(cheng)，但隨著(zhu)西北(bei)(bei)其他省份火電(dian)(dian)(dian)建設(she)空間進(jin)一步(bu)壓縮，再加(jia)上規(gui)劃通道建成和負荷逐步(bu)增長，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力盈余逐步(bu)減小，給青(qing)海(hai)(hai)能(neng)(neng)夠提(ti)(ti)供的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力支(zhi)撐(cheng)有限，需要青(qing)海(hai)(hai)從自身內部尋求能(neng)(neng)夠解決季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)節(jie)(jie)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)量不平衡的(de)措(cuo)施。目前來看，尚未有經濟(ji)可(ke)行的(de)跨季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)調(diao)節(jie)(jie)手段，光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)站在通過應急(ji)備用(yong)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)可(ke)完全替代火電(dian)(dian)(dian)，以應對上述季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)節(jie)(jie)性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)。

表5給(gei)出(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)(qu)光熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)備用發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)運行指標。圖(tu)(tu)8給(gei)出(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)(qu)光熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)考(kao)慮應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)后(hou)的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)分布。圖(tu)(tu)9給(gei)出(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)(qu)光熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)考(kao)慮應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)后(hou)的12月逐時(shi)(shi)平均發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)。可以看出(chu)，根據(ju)前述方法(fa)初(chu)步測(ce)算，全年應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)22億kW·h，其中12月份需要應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)最大，約(yue)14億kW·h(占比(bi)64%)，小時(shi)(shi)數(shu)提高約(yue)440h，占比(bi)僅約(yue)8.8%。冬(dong)季12月日最大應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)1.2億kW·h(全天(tian)24h連(lian)續(xu)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)運行)，小時(shi)(shi)最大發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)500萬kW·h(即滿功(gong)率發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian))，可全容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)替代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝機。

表5海西地區光熱電站應急備(bei)用發(fa)電運(yun)行(xing)指標(biao)

Table 5 Operation index of emergency standby power generation of solar thermal power station in Haixi area

圖(tu)8 2030年海西地區光熱電(dian)(dian)站發電(dian)(dian)量分布(bu)(含應急發電(dian)(dian))

Fig.8 Power generation distribution of solar thermal power station in Haixi region in 2030(including emergency power generation)

圖9 2030年海西地區光熱(re)電站12月逐時平(ping)均發電量(含應急(ji)發電)

Fig.9 Hourly average power generation of solar thermal power station in Haixi region in December 2030(including emergency power generation)

對(dui)不(bu)同光(guang)(guang)熱規模對(dui)應的應急(ji)備用發電比(bi)例進(jin)行(xing)敏(min)感性分(fen)析，表6和(he)圖10給(gei)出了(le)2030年(nian)海西地區不(bu)同規模光(guang)(guang)熱電站對(dui)應應急(ji)備用發電運行(xing)指標(biao)。可以(yi)看出，隨著光(guang)(guang)熱規模逐(zhu)步減少，光(guang)(guang)熱應急(ji)備用發電比(bi)例呈現逐(zhu)步升(sheng)高趨勢(shi)，由(you)8.9%增(zeng)加至20.2%。

表6海西地區(qu)不(bu)同(tong)規模光(guang)熱電(dian)站應急備用(yong)發電(dian)運行(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)

Table 6 Operation index of emergency standby power generation of different scale solar thermal power stations in Haixi region

圖10 2030年海(hai)西地區不同光熱(re)電站(zhan)規模(mo)發電量(liang)統計(含應急發電)

Fig.10 Power generation statistics of different solar thermal power stations in Haixi region in 2030(including emergency power generation)

需要說明的是，關于應急備用(yong)(yong)發電(補燃(ran)(ran)(ran))技術方案，可(ke)以采用(yong)(yong)天然氣(qi)補燃(ran)(ran)(ran)，也可(ke)以采用(yong)(yong)生(sheng)物質補燃(ran)(ran)(ran)，還可(ke)與供熱相結合(he)，有待進一步論證。以天然氣(qi)補燃(ran)(ran)(ran)為例，初(chu)步估算增(zeng)加燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)備用(yong)(yong)鍋爐投資(zi)約(yue)1000元/kW，青海天然氣(qi)價格按(an)1.15元/m3，補燃(ran)(ran)(ran)發電效率(lv)約(yue)40%左右，1 m3氣(qi)按(an)發4 kW·h電考慮，補燃(ran)(ran)(ran)單(dan)位發電成本約(yue)0.2875元/(kW·h)。

4、結論

在國(guo)(guo)家雙碳(tan)目(mu)標(biao)驅動下(xia)，我國(guo)(guo)新能(neng)(neng)源裝(zhuang)機規(gui)模將(jiang)更加(jia)(jia)快速(su)增長，而火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建(jian)設空間(jian)進一步壓(ya)縮。未(wei)來新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)將(jiang)面臨一定的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)保(bao)障(zhang)問(wen)題(ti)，光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)作為儲熱型(xing)新能(neng)(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)，通過增加(jia)(jia)應急鍋爐(lu)備用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，可(ke)以(yi)全時段替代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機，為系(xi)(xi)統(tong)提供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)支撐(cheng)。同(tong)時可(ke)以(yi)實現以(yi)少量(liang)低碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)源帶動更大規(gui)模可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源開發(fa)，可(ke)以(yi)助力(li)(li)(li)我國(guo)(guo)新能(neng)(neng)源開發(fa)目(mu)標(biao)和(he)碳(tan)達(da)峰目(mu)標(biao)早日完(wan)成。研究(jiu)結(jie)果初(chu)步表明，2030年前青海新增1000~5000MW光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)，通過增加(jia)(jia)10%~20%左右應急備用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)可(ke)以(yi)完(wan)全替代相同(tong)容量(liang)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，從而應對季(ji)節(jie)性(xing)缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問(wen)題(ti)或極端(duan)天氣下(xia)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)不(bu)足問(wen)題(ti)，保(bao)障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)可(ke)靠(kao)供(gong)應。

注：本文轉自《電網技術》，作者為國家電網有限公司西北分部孫驍強、汪瑩、李慶海、楊楠、張小奇、霍超；中國電力工程顧問集團西北電力設計院有限公司李富春、楊攀峰、傅旭、李海偉。