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一、上半年電力行業運行特征

上半(ban)年，全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平穩增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速明顯下(xia)降。其中(zhong)，第二產業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速下(xia)降是拉動全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速下(xia)降的主要原因，第三產業和居民生活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)保持(chi)較快增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。25個(ge)省份用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速有(you)所放(fang)緩，3個(ge)省份用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速略低于用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速，非化(hua)石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)保持(chi)快速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)裝機容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)減少(shao)。綜合來看，上半(ban)年全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)力(li)供需保持(chi)平衡。

上半年，全社會用(yong)電量(liang)3.4萬億(yi)千瓦時，同比(bi)增長5.0%，增速同比(bi)回落4.4個百分點。其中一(yi)、二季(ji)度用(yong)電量(liang)同比(bi)分別增長5.5%和4.5%，反映出我國經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)一(yi)季(ji)度開(kai)局平穩(wen)，二季(ji)度經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)下(xia)行壓力有所增加。

第(di)二產(chan)(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)顯著下降(jiang)，第(di)三產(chan)(chan)(chan)業和居(ju)民(min)(min)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)貢獻(xian)率大幅上(shang)升(sheng)。上(shang)半(ban)年，第(di)二產(chan)(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為3.1%，同(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)4.5個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點，第(di)二產(chan)(chan)(chan)業增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)下降(jiang)是導(dao)致全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)下降(jiang)的主要原因；第(di)三產(chan)(chan)(chan)業、居(ju)民(min)(min)生活用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)9.4%、9.6%，比(bi)第(di)二產(chan)(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)分(fen)(fen)別高出6.3、6.5個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點。上(shang)半(ban)年，第(di)二產(chan)(chan)(chan)業對用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻(xian)率為42.6%，同(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)13.9個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點，第(di)三產(chan)(chan)(chan)業和居(ju)民(min)(min)生活對用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻(xian)率分(fen)(fen)別為29.5%、27.0%，同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)別上(shang)升(sheng)6.1、7.9個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點。用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)結構(gou)(gou)持續(xu)優化，反映出產(chan)(chan)(chan)業結構(gou)(gou)調(diao)整持續(xu)深(shen)入，民(min)(min)生用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求不斷釋放。高耗能行業用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)平穩增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為3.4%，同(tong)比(bi)下降(jiang)1.7個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點。

大多數(shu)省份(fen)用電增速(su)放緩(huan)，部分(fen)(fen)省份(fen)用電量負增長(chang)。上(shang)半年，31個(ge)(ge)(ge)省份(fen)中(zhong)25個(ge)(ge)(ge)省份(fen)用電量增速(su)放緩(huan)，僅西藏（16.6%）、海南(nan)（9.9%）、新疆（9.2%）、河北（7.0%）、山東（3.8%）5個(ge)(ge)(ge)省份(fen)用電增速(su)上(shang)升，同(tong)比分(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)升5.8、1.8、2.4、2.1、0.9個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點。其中(zhong)上(shang)海、甘肅、青海用電量負增長(chang)，用電量分(fen)(fen)別(bie)減少(shao)0.1%、0.7%、2.8%。

發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量增速略低(di)于用電(dian)量增速，非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量快速增長(chang)(chang)(chang)。上(shang)半年，全國(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量增長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.3%，同(tong)(tong)比下(xia)降(jiang)5.0個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)，低(di)于用電(dian)增速1.7個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。其(qi)中，火電(dian)增速僅0.2%，同(tong)(tong)比下(xia)降(jiang)7.8個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)12.6%，增速同(tong)(tong)比上(shang)升2.4個百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)，水電(dian)、核電(dian)、風電(dian)及(ji)太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)同(tong)(tong)比分(fen)別增長(chang)(chang)(chang)11.8%、23.1%%11.5及(ji)29.1%。

新(xin)(xin)增裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模大(da)幅減(jian)少，新(xin)(xin)增裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)仍(reng)以(yi)非化石能源(yuan)為主。上半(ban)年，全國新(xin)(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)4074萬千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比減(jian)少1194萬千(qian)瓦，主要(yao)由于(yu)新(xin)(xin)增太陽能發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)減(jian)少1417萬千(qian)瓦，其中(zhong)58.4%的(de)新(xin)(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)為非化石能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)，占比較(jiao)去年有所下降，但(dan)仍(reng)為新(xin)(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)的(de)主要(yao)部分。

二、下半年電力需求增長走勢分析

經濟增長影響分析

2018年(nian)以來，美(mei)國(guo)(guo)政府奉(feng)行“美(mei)國(guo)(guo)優先”，針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易保(bao)護措(cuo)(cuo)施(shi)(shi)不斷升級，2018年(nian)6月(yue)，美(mei)國(guo)(guo)政府公布第(di)一輪(lun)(lun)加征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)措(cuo)(cuo)施(shi)(shi)，針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)(dui)自中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)(de)500億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)商品加征(zheng)25%的(de)(de)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)，分(fen)(fen)別于(yu)7月(yue)6日和8月(yue)23日對(dui)(dui)(dui)其中(zhong)(zhong)340億(yi)和160億(yi)商品實施(shi)(shi)加征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)。2018年(nian)9月(yue)，美(mei)國(guo)(guo)政府公布第(di)二輪(lun)(lun)加征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)措(cuo)(cuo)施(shi)(shi)，涉及中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)美(mei)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)絕大(da)多數(shu)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，價值(zhi)2000億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，并于(yu)9月(yue)24日起加征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)率(lv)為10%。2019年(nian)5月(yue)10日，美(mei)國(guo)(guo)將2000億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)商品加征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)率(lv)由10%上調至25%。在美(mei)國(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)貿(mao)(mao)(mao)易保(bao)護措(cuo)(cuo)施(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)影(ying)響(xiang)下(xia)(xia)，我國(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)美(mei)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)下(xia)(xia)滑明顯，而且涉美(mei)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長相對(dui)(dui)(dui)放緩(huan)。上半年(nian)，我國(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)(dui)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)減少2.6%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降8.2個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。從國(guo)(guo)網經營區(qu)域來看，二季度尤(you)其是5月(yue)份中(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)經貿(mao)(mao)(mao)摩擦加劇，業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)擴凈增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)容量大(da)幅下(xia)(xia)滑。上半年(nian)，涉美(mei)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)售(shou)電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降10.3個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，較全(quan)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)售(shou)電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速低4.1個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，直接影(ying)響(xiang)售(shou)電量約55億(yi)千(qian)瓦時。

長(chang)期(qi)來看(kan)，中美(mei)(mei)產業關系從互(hu)補走向(xiang)競爭，貿易摩(mo)(mo)擦的根源(yuan)不是(shi)表面(mian)上的縮(suo)減逆差和貿易平衡，本(ben)質是(shi)霸(ba)權國(guo)家對(dui)新興大國(guo)的戰略遏制。下半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)，中美(mei)(mei)貿易摩(mo)(mo)擦將(jiang)進(jin)一(yi)步升級。8月(yue)15日(ri)，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)政(zheng)府宣布約3000億美(mei)(mei)元商(shang)品(pin)加征10%關稅，分(fen)(fen)兩批自2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)9月(yue)1日(ri)、12月(yue)15日(ri)起實施。在中國(guo)實施反制措施后，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)揚言，有可(ke)能將(jiang)提(ti)高3000億美(mei)(mei)元稅率至25%。隨著中美(mei)(mei)經貿摩(mo)(mo)擦不斷升級，對(dui)我(wo)國(guo)用電(dian)(dian)量的負面(mian)影響進(jin)一(yi)步加深。下一(yi)步如果(guo)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)對(dui)3000億美(mei)(mei)元商(shang)品(pin)提(ti)高關稅至25%，將(jiang)拉低(di)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)國(guo)GDP增(zeng)速(su)約0.7個百分(fen)(fen)點，影響用電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)長(chang)約1.4個百分(fen)(fen)點。

整體(ti)來看，下半(ban)年(nian)，受中(zhong)美貿易摩擦影響(xiang)，我國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)發展(zhan)(zhan)面(mian)臨一定(ding)的(de)(de)壓力(li)和不確定(ding)性，經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長動(dong)力(li)將(jiang)主要來自內(nei)需(xu)的(de)(de)拉動(dong)。7月(yue)30日，中(zhong)共中(zhong)央政(zheng)治局會議提出保持政(zheng)策定(ding)力(li)，推動(dong)高質量發展(zhan)(zhan)，不將(jiang)房(fang)地產(chan)作為短期刺激經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)(de)手段。并提出一系(xi)列措施，包(bao)括：深挖國(guo)內(nei)需(xu)求(qiu)潛力(li)，有效啟動(dong)農(nong)村(cun)市(shi)(shi)場；穩(wen)定(ding)制造業投(tou)(tou)資，實(shi)(shi)施城(cheng)鎮老舊小區改造、城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)停車場等(deng)(deng)補短板(ban)工程；采取具體(ti)措施支(zhi)持民(min)營企(qi)業發展(zhan)(zhan)等(deng)(deng)。預計下半(ban)年(nian)，“補短板(ban)”、“新基建(jian)”等(deng)(deng)一系(xi)列政(zheng)策的(de)(de)實(shi)(shi)施將(jiang)拉動(dong)投(tou)(tou)資增(zeng)速(su)回升；減稅降費等(deng)(deng)政(zheng)策加碼，消費增(zeng)速(su)有望(wang)企(qi)穩(wen)，國(guo)民(min)經(jing)濟(ji)有望(wang)運(yun)行在合理區間，總體(ti)保持平穩(wen)。

氣候氣溫影響分析

2019年(nian)7-8月份(fen)，受強(qiang)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)雨(yu)、強(qiang)臺風(feng)影響(xiang)，全(quan)國(guo)(guo)平均(jun)氣溫(wen)低(di)于去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期，空(kong)調負(fu)荷用電(dian)(dian)量負(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)長，拉低(di)全(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速。從7月份(fen)來(lai)看(kan)(kan)，全(quan)國(guo)(guo)平均(jun)氣溫(wen)22.1℃，同(tong)比下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)0.8℃；平均(jun)高溫(wen)日數5.7天(tian)，同(tong)比減少0.4天(tian)。據國(guo)(guo)家(jia)電(dian)(dian)網有限公司電(dian)(dian)力供需研究實驗室測算(suan)，7月份(fen)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)溫(wen)電(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比減少9.5%，降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅同(tong)比擴大(da)(da)，占全(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)量的比重(zhong)有所降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)；氣溫(wen)因素拉低(di)全(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)長1.6個百分點。分地(di)區看(kan)(kan)，西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、華(hua)中、華(hua)東7月份(fen)受持(chi)續(xu)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)雨(yu)影響(xiang)氣溫(wen)偏(pian)低(di)，全(quan)月高溫(wen)日數較常年(nian)偏(pian)少；而去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期，上述地(di)區大(da)(da)部出現大(da)(da)范圍(wei)持(chi)續(xu)高溫(wen)天(tian)氣，高溫(wen)強(qiang)度強(qiang)、范圍(wei)廣、持(chi)續(xu)時間長。因降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)溫(wen)負(fu)荷未能充分釋放(fang)，西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、華(hua)中、華(hua)東用電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速低(di)迷(mi)。其中重(zhong)慶(qing)、四川、江西(xi)、湖(hu)南(nan)(nan)(nan)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)溫(wen)電(dian)(dian)量降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅超過(guo)30%，重(zhong)慶(qing)、四川、湖(hu)北(bei)、湖(hu)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江西(xi)、安徽降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)溫(wen)電(dian)(dian)量占全(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)量的比重(zhong)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)超過(guo)5個百分點。

預計2019冬季，初步氣(qi)候預測氣(qi)溫與常年相當(dang)，預計采暖電量平穩增(zeng)長，拉(la)高全社(she)會用電增(zeng)速。

電能替代影響分析

2019年中央經濟(ji)工(gong)(gong)作會議提出(chu)，要打好污染(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)攻堅戰(zhan)(zhan)，要堅守陣地、鞏固成果，聚(ju)焦做好打贏藍(lan)(lan)天保(bao)衛(wei)戰(zhan)(zhan)等工(gong)(gong)作。2019年政府工(gong)(gong)作報告提出(chu)，要持續(xu)推進污染(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)，鞏固擴(kuo)大(da)(da)藍(lan)(lan)天保(bao)衛(wei)戰(zhan)(zhan)成果，持續(xu)開(kai)展(zhan)京津冀及(ji)周邊(bian)、長三(san)角、汾渭平原大(da)(da)氣污染(ran)治(zhi)理攻堅，加強工(gong)(gong)業(ye)、燃(ran)煤、機動車三(san)大(da)(da)污染(ran)源治(zhi)理。做好北方地區清潔取暖工(gong)(gong)作，確保(bao)群眾溫暖過冬(dong)。實(shi)施電(dian)能(neng)替代(dai)是打好污染(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)攻堅戰(zhan)(zhan)的重要舉措，對(dui)于推動能(neng)源消費革命(ming)、促進能(neng)源清潔化發展(zhan)、推進污染(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)意義重大(da)(da)。

近年來，國家和地(di)方政府(fu)先后出(chu)臺了(le)《關于(yu)(yu)推(tui)(tui)(tui)進(jin)電能(neng)(neng)替代的(de)(de)指導意(yi)見》、《北(bei)方地(di)區(qu)冬季清(qing)潔(jie)取暖規劃(hua)（2017-2021年）》等一系列政策積極推(tui)(tui)(tui)進(jin)電能(neng)(neng)替代的(de)(de)有效(xiao)實施，規劃(hua)對電采暖目標、推(tui)(tui)(tui)進(jin)策略、保障措施等進(jin)行了(le)全面部署，提(ti)出(chu)到2021年帶(dai)動(dong)新增(zeng)電量消(xiao)費1100億千瓦時。2019年6月，國家能(neng)(neng)源局發布(bu)了(le)《關于(yu)(yu)解決“煤(mei)改(gai)氣(qi)”“煤(mei)改(gai)電”等清(qing)潔(jie)供(gong)暖推(tui)(tui)(tui)進(jin)過(guo)程中有關問題的(de)(de)通(tong)知(zhi)》，指出(chu)：將(jiang)以運行成本最低為原則(ze)，建(jian)立完(wan)善(shan)的(de)(de)長效(xiao)支持機(ji)制(zhi)，在具備條件的(de)(de)地(di)區(qu)按照“以供(gong)定改(gai)”的(de)(de)原則(ze)推(tui)(tui)(tui)廣天然氣(qi)和電供(gong)暖。

電網企業積極響應國家號召，在優化工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)機制、爭取和出臺支持政策(ce)等方面做(zuo)了大量(liang)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，全力推進電能替(ti)代(dai)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，并先(xian)后制定(ding)了《北方地區(qu)冬(dong)季清潔取暖電供暖規劃實施方案(an)（2017-2021年(nian)）》和《京津冀及周邊(bian)地區(qu)、汾渭平原(yuan)“煤改(gai)電”三年(nian)攻(gong)堅方案(an)（2018-2020年(nian)）》。

方(fang)案明確了“煤改電(dian)(dian)”目標任務，并詳(xiang)細制定了配套電(dian)(dian)網建設規模(mo)和計劃，提出：2018～2020年，重(zhong)點區(qu)域公司經(jing)營區(qu)內共計528.5萬(wan)戶居(ju)民(min)、2.4萬(wan)個村、0.7萬(wan)個企事(shi)業單位實施(shi)電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)改造，新增供(gong)暖(nuan)面積4.6億平方(fang)米。

其中，“2+26”城市454.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)戶(hu)居(ju)民(min)、1.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)村(cun)、0.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)企事(shi)業單位實施電(dian)供(gong)暖改(gai)造，新增供(gong)暖面(mian)積4.1億(yi)平方米；汾渭平原城市73.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)戶(hu)居(ju)民(min)、0.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)村(cun)、0.05萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)(ge)企事(shi)業單位實施電(dian)供(gong)暖改(gai)造，新增供(gong)暖面(mian)積0.5億(yi)平方米。至2020年(nian)，重點區域(yu)“煤(mei)改(gai)電(dian)”清潔替代電(dian)量(liang)達到456億(yi)千瓦時，可累計減少(shao)散燒(shao)煤(mei)消耗(hao)2530萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，減排二氧化(hua)碳4510萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，累計減排二氧化(hua)硫、氮氧化(hua)物和粉塵污染物1430萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，PM2.5約40萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸。

2019年(nian)1月(yue)，為深入貫徹落實《中(zhong)共中(zhong)央、國(guo)務院關于(yu)實施鄉(xiang)(xiang)村(cun)振興戰略(lve)的(de)意見》和國(guo)家《鄉(xiang)(xiang)村(cun)振興戰略(lve)規劃（2018年(nian)-2022年(nian)）》，大力(li)推動鄉(xiang)(xiang)村(cun)電氣化，促進鄉(xiang)(xiang)村(cun)能(neng)源生產和消費升(sheng)級(ji)，國(guo)家電網有限公司印發了(le)《關于(yu)服務鄉(xiang)(xiang)村(cun)振興戰略(lve)、大力(li)推動鄉(xiang)(xiang)村(cun)電氣化的(de)意見》。

意見提(ti)出，從(cong)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)鄉村(cun)(cun)全(quan)(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)景(jing)區建設、民(min)宿電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)改造(zao)(zao)、特色(se)產業(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)應用(yong)等方面推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)鄉村(cun)(cun)產業(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)，從(cong)推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)鄉村(cun)(cun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)采暖、綠(lv)色(se)出行、家(jia)庭電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)等方面推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)農(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)生活(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)。到2022年，在(zai)農(nong)(nong)產品種(zhong)(zhong)植、加(jia)工、鄉村(cun)(cun)旅游等方面建成一批(pi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)試點示(shi)(shi)范(fan)工程；推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)打(da)造(zao)(zao)2萬個共(gong)1萬畝電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)示(shi)(shi)范(fan)大棚，打(da)造(zao)(zao)20萬畝全(quan)(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)蝦稻共(gong)生養(yang)殖示(shi)(shi)范(fan)基(ji)地(di)；助力(li)海(hai)產品電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)加(jia)熱育種(zhong)(zhong)示(shi)(shi)范(fan)基(ji)地(di)試點建設，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)建設100座電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)孵化(hua)(hua)(hua)室(shi)；打(da)造(zao)(zao)10萬畝農(nong)(nong)田空氣(qi)(qi)(qi)源(yuan)熱泵糧(liang)食電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)烘(hong)干示(shi)(shi)范(fan)基(ji)地(di)，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)300家(jia)大型木材加(jia)工企業(ye)實施熱泵烘(hong)干技術改造(zao)(zao)；推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)建立80個全(quan)(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)科技創新基(ji)地(di)，打(da)造(zao)(zao)1000個能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)示(shi)(shi)范(fan)村(cun)(cun)鎮(zhen)和(he)全(quan)(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)景(jing)區。農(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)、農(nong)(nong)業(ye)各(ge)領域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)水平大幅提(ti)升，農(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)地(di)區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)占終端能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費比例達到38.5%，在(zai)現(xian)有基(ji)礎上提(ti)高2個百分點。

根據《京津(jin)冀及周邊(bian)地區、汾渭平原“煤改電”三年(nian)攻(gong)堅方案(an)（2018-2020年(nian)）》提出的目標，2019年(nian)將推進(jin)重點區域(yu)184萬戶(hu)居民、0.8萬個村、0.07萬個企事(shi)業單位(wei)實施(shi)電供(gong)暖(nuan)改造(zao)，新增(zeng)供(gong)暖(nuan)面積1.6億平方米(mi)。預計2019年(nian)，國(guo)網區域(yu)增(zeng)加采暖(nuan)電量約160億千瓦時。

下半年電力增長研判

下(xia)半年(nian)，經濟繼續保持(chi)平穩運行，國(guo)家宏(hong)觀政策逆周期調節效果逐步顯現，工(gong)業生產企穩回升態勢增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強(qiang)，全(quan)社會用(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速將有(you)所(suo)回升。預(yu)計2019年(nian)全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社會用(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速在5%左右，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速較“十(shi)三五”前三年(nian)全(quan)社會用(yong)電量平均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速（6.7%）有(you)所(suo)下(xia)降(jiang)，但仍高于“十(shi)二五”后(hou)兩年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速。

三、有關建議

結合上半年(nian)電力(li)行(xing)業運行(xing)情況及下(xia)半年(nian)走勢分析，有以下(xia)問題需持續關注(zhu)：

完(wan)善電力(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側管(guan)(guan)理機制，全力(li)(li)以赴保障電力(li)(li)安全穩定供(gong)應。下半年(nian)，新中國(guo)成立(li)70周年(nian)、第二屆中國(guo)國(guo)際(ji)進口(kou)博覽會、澳門(men)回(hui)歸祖(zu)國(guo)20周年(nian)等多項重大(da)活動舉辦在即，迎峰度夏期間(jian)用電負(fu)荷(he)連創(chuang)新高，電力(li)(li)安全保障難度不斷加(jia)大(da)。電力(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側管(guan)(guan)理是保障電力(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)平衡和促進節能(neng)減(jian)排的(de)重要手(shou)段(duan)。隨著國(guo)家(jia)供(gong)給側結構性改(gai)(gai)革、能(neng)源革命、電力(li)(li)市(shi)場改(gai)(gai)革、大(da)氣污染(ran)防(fang)治等工作的(de)深入推進，電力(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側管(guan)(guan)理所面臨的(de)市(shi)場環境、環保壓力(li)(li)、技術條件等也都(dou)發(fa)生(sheng)了顯(xian)著變化。

建議一(yi)是加(jia)快煤炭優質(zhi)產能釋放，合理(li)安(an)排運輸，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠提前(qian)增補(bu)庫存，進一(yi)步增強燃料供(gong)應保障能力(li)(li)(li)；通(tong)過火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈(ling)活(huo)性改造、建設(she)調峰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站等(deng)手段加(jia)強電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)調峰能力(li)(li)(li)建設(she)；合理(li)規劃(hua)新(xin)增電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網建設(she)，彌補(bu)華北、華東等(deng)地(di)區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)缺口。二是完(wan)善電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管(guan)(guan)理(li)機制，建立電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管(guan)(guan)理(li)基(ji)金，研(yan)究(jiu)分析(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管(guan)(guan)理(li)資(zi)源潛(qian)力(li)(li)(li)，研(yan)究(jiu)制定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管(guan)(guan)理(li)規劃(hua)，指(zhi)導全國(guo)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管(guan)(guan)理(li)工作(zuo)有效開展；在此基(ji)礎(chu)上，加(jia)強與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)規劃(hua)部門的(de)溝通(tong)，堅持“電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)即(ji)是用(yong)戶的(de)供(gong)給側(ce)”原則，將(jiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管(guan)(guan)理(li)資(zi)源作(zuo)為“能效電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠”，納入(ru)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)規劃(hua)。

優化電(dian)(dian)(dian)采暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)技(ji)術路徑，加(jia)快推進電(dian)(dian)(dian)能替代(dai)與北(bei)方(fang)地區清潔(jie)取暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)。從清潔(jie)取暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)推進情(qing)況(kuang)來看，北(bei)方(fang)地區清潔(jie)取暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)實施情(qing)況(kuang)整體(ti)良好(hao)，超過規劃預期。其中，電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)增(zeng)長較快，完成情(qing)況(kuang)良好(hao)，可再(zai)生(sheng)能源供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)推進較慢。由(you)于集中式電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)經濟(ji)性較低、地方(fang)政府支(zhi)持政策(ce)較少，推廣較為緩(huan)慢，電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)以分散(san)式電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)為主。2017-2018年(nian)，分散(san)式電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)占比高達89.1%，集中式電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)僅為10.9%。集中式電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)總(zong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)遠落后于2021年(nian)8億平(ping)方(fang)米的目標。

打贏“藍天保衛戰”、加(jia)快生態文明建設任(ren)務(wu)仍任(ren)重(zhong)道(dao)遠，加(jia)快電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)側(ce)清潔替(ti)代(dai)和用(yong)戶(hu)側(ce)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)代(dai)是重(zhong)要舉措。對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)代(dai)而言，要聚焦(jiao)工業生產、交(jiao)通運輸、生活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)領(ling)域，加(jia)大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)鍋(guo)爐(lu)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)窯爐(lu)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車、港口岸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、農(nong)業電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化、家庭電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化等(deng)推廣力度，提(ti)高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)占(zhan)終端能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費比重(zhong)。

針對清潔取暖(nuan)推進過(guo)程存在的問題，建(jian)(jian)議如下(xia)：一(yi)是深入研(yan)究集(ji)(ji)中式(shi)電(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)實(shi)施(shi)路(lu)徑、適(shi)用范圍、經(jing)濟性以及政(zheng)策需求，選擇合(he)(he)理的技術(shu)路(lu)線，因地(di)制(zhi)宜推進集(ji)(ji)中式(shi)電(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)推廣，助力(li)國(guo)家目標的實(shi)現。二是結合(he)(he)國(guo)家智慧能(neng)源系(xi)統(tong)(tong)建(jian)(jian)設，充(chong)分發揮電(dian)網企業與用戶聯系(xi)緊密的天然優(you)勢(shi)，以綜(zong)合(he)(he)能(neng)源服務為抓手，利用綜(zong)合(he)(he)能(neng)源系(xi)統(tong)(tong)能(neng)效和成本優(you)勢(shi)，積極推動(dong)工(gong)業園區、商業樓宇、居民社(she)區的綜(zong)合(he)(he)能(neng)源系(xi)統(tong)(tong)建(jian)(jian)設，有效帶動(dong)電(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)項(xiang)目的落地(di)實(shi)施(shi)。三(san)是政(zheng)府要建(jian)(jian)立(li)長效支持政(zheng)策，持續出臺電(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)設備補(bu)貼、運行費用補(bu)貼、配電(dian)網投資補(bu)貼，并確保(bao)其中一(yi)部分資金能(neng)夠精(jing)準投入到電(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)工(gong)程中。

利用(yong)大(da)(da)數(shu)據手(shou)段(duan)密切跟蹤挖(wa)掘(jue)用(yong)電(dian)數(shu)據，反映內外部因素(su)對經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)運行情(qing)況的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。未來，中美貿易(yi)摩擦形(xing)勢復雜多(duo)變，對我國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)也(ye)帶來一(yi)定(ding)(ding)不確定(ding)(ding)性。及(ji)(ji)時、準(zhun)確的(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)析宏觀經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)形(xing)勢是(shi)中央及(ji)(ji)時出(chu)臺調控政策(ce)基(ji)礎。電(dian)力(li)是(shi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“晴雨表、風向標”，分(fen)(fen)析電(dian)力(li)數(shu)據，對支撐(cheng)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)決(jue)策(ce)具有十分(fen)(fen)重要的(de)(de)(de)(de)意義。用(yong)電(dian)數(shu)據監測分(fen)(fen)析及(ji)(ji)預(yu)警(jing)能力(li)需(xu)進一(yi)步(bu)加(jia)強。當(dang)前，“云、大(da)(da)、物、移、智”等技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展(zhan)為數(shu)據分(fen)(fen)析工作提供(gong)了更科學的(de)(de)(de)(de)手(shou)段(duan)，應運用(yong)大(da)(da)數(shu)據思維(wei)，加(jia)強用(yong)電(dian)數(shu)據及(ji)(ji)背(bei)后影響(xiang)因素(su)的(de)(de)(de)(de)挖(wa)掘(jue)，為政府(fu)決(jue)策(ce)提供(gong)支撐(cheng)。

建議一是加強全國及分(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)區、分(fen)(fen)部門及重點行(xing)業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)數據(ju)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)，服務(wu)政府決策及行(xing)業(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)；二是持(chi)續完善(shan)涉美出口企業(ye)(ye)清單，密切跟蹤涉美企業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)情況(kuang)、業(ye)(ye)擴報裝變化，強化中美貿易摩擦的影響分(fen)(fen)析(xi)；三是進一步挖(wa)掘電(dian)(dian)(dian)力數據(ju)價值，細化專題(ti)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)，如貧(pin)困地(di)(di)區用電(dian)(dian)(dian)情況(kuang)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)、發達與欠(qian)發達地(di)(di)區用電(dian)(dian)(dian)差異(yi)分(fen)(fen)析(xi)等。